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ASE & Motor Trader Financial Conference 2013

ASE & Motor Trader Financial Conference 2013. Mike Allen Executive Director – Panmure Gordon & Co 0151 243 0966 michael.allen@panmure.com. Overview. Introduction UK economic environment Reasons to be optimistic about UK Motor Retail Reasons to remain cautious about UK Motor Retail

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ASE & Motor Trader Financial Conference 2013

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  1. ASE & Motor Trader Financial Conference 2013 Mike Allen Executive Director – Panmure Gordon & Co 0151 243 0966 michael.allen@panmure.com

  2. Overview • Introduction • UK economic environment • Reasons to be optimistic about UK Motor Retail • Reasons to remain cautious about UK Motor Retail • A look across the pond in the US • Stock market environment • Concluding thoughts • Q&A

  3. UK Economic Environment Overview • UK economy recovery is underway but will be a long and slow process • Most economic projections suggest UK GDP growth will exceed 2% by 2015 at the earliest... • Austerity measures gathering pace, but likely to ease ahead of next election in 2015 • Unemployment structurally high, wage inflation modest and below inflation • Fuel costs impacting buying behaviour • Consumer confidence remains fragile, buying incentives remain key

  4. UK Consumer confidence indices

  5. Labour market dynamics

  6. Inflation and consumer saving rates

  7. Reasons to be optimistic on UK Motor Retail • New car data continues to improve and remains below historic peak levels • Euro Zone markets remain under pressure • Pent up demand building through ageing UK car parc • Used car market remains stable • Consolidation dynamics remain attractive • Valuations remain below peak levels

  8. New car registrations remain strong

  9. Clear pressure in the European New Car Sales

  10. Key FX trends

  11. Government debt suggests on going weak Euro

  12. Clear evidence of pent up demand in UK market UK car parc/average age Source BCA

  13. Supportive supply/demand dynamics in used cars

  14. Valuation undemanding, above average growth..

  15. Reasons to be cautious about UK Motor Retail • UK consumer still faces significant pressures on household income • Fuel price inflation • Structurally high levels of unemployment • On-going squeeze on family income • Fragile confidence • Significant incentives to purchase still needed • Historical trends important – remember the 2% rule • OEM behaviour likely to remain erratic given Eurozone pressures – close eye needs to be kept on dealer targets • Used car values appear to have fallen in March – seasonal adjustment as opposed to real market income • Cyclical industry on wafer thin margins = rocky road at all times

  16. The 2% rule in action since 1988

  17. More pain to come in the housing market?

  18. A look across the pond

  19. Stock market environment

  20. Concluding Thoughts • UK economic recovery will be long and slow • PLC dealer groups expected to make progress in 2013 vs. a decent year that was 2012 – H1 2013 should be good • Dynamic sector with improving performance standards – online presence, stock control, cost base optimisation and consolidation • Stock market valuations undemanding at this stage of the cycle • Beware of fickle stock markets as well as consumers and on-going macro economic concerns • Rocky road always the case in this sector but through the worst • Q&A

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