Seasonal Climate Forecast

438 views • 29 slides

Seasonal Forecasting 101

Seasonal Forecasting 101. Dan Leonard dleonard@wsi.com. Dr. Todd Crawford tcrawford@wsi.com. Weather Forecasting and the Markets. Energy Trading Natural Gas, Oil and Power Wind/Hydro/Solar Commodities Insurance. Seasonal Forecasting and Market Impacts . w inter forecasts issued.

779 views • 59 slides

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting. Magdalena A. Balmaseda. Outline. The importance of the ocean initial conditions in seasonal forecasts A well established case: ENSO in the Equatorial Pacific Other examples of SST forcing Ocean Model initialization

666 views • 51 slides

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting. Magdalena A. Balmaseda. Outline. The importance of the ocean initial conditions in SF Ocean Model initialization The value of observational information: fluxes, SST, ocean observations The difficulties

505 views • 39 slides

SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting

Buffalo Creek Basin. Observed Rainfall 0000Z to 0400Z 13/7/96 (Chen et al., NCAR). 24-Hours Ahead Atmospheric Model Forecasts. With Realistic Soil Moisture. Without Realistic Soil Moisture. SMAP Applications in NOAA - Numerical Weather & Seasonal Climate Forecasting.

160 views • 5 slides

Forecasting for Seasonal Locations

Forecasting for Seasonal Locations. Locations w/ Seasonal Variations. Summer Resorts (Beach, Lake, Mountain) Winter Resorts (Ski Destinations) Snowbird Areas (Florida, Arizona) College Towns Other (Special Events) . Keys to Good Seasonal Forecasting. Historical Store Data (if available)

337 views • 18 slides

Recent Developments in Dynamical Climate Seasonal Forecasting

Recent Developments in Dynamical Climate Seasonal Forecasting. Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Renate Hagedorn, Tim N. Palmer f.doblas-reyes@ecmwf.int European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. CLIMAG objective.

552 views • 41 slides

QBO (Seasonal Forecasting)

QBO (Seasonal Forecasting). QBO 30 mb Zonal Wind Index (Index Primarily Used). QBO 50 mb Zonal Wind Index.

377 views • 22 slides

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting

Initialization Techniques in Seasonal Forecasting. Magdalena A. Balmaseda. Outline. The importance of the ocean initial conditions in seasonal forecasts A well established case: ENSO in the Equatorial Pacific A seasonal forecasting system Ocean Model initialization

669 views • 50 slides

Toward Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Climate Projections in Future Akio KITOH

Tokyo Climate Conference, 6 July 2009, Tokyo. Toward Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Climate Projections in Future Akio KITOH Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan. ENSO influences worldwide climate even out of the tropical Pacific on seasonal to inter-annual scales.

459 views • 31 slides

Seasonal Climate Prediction

Seasonal Climate Prediction. Youmin Tang Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia. Contents. Introduction Basic theory and methods for the dynamical climate prediction system International activities on the seasonal climate prediction

1.06k views • 71 slides

Seasonal Climate Prediction

Seasonal Climate Prediction. Li Xu Department of Meteorology University of Utah. An ability to anticipate the climate fluctuations one or more seasons in advance would have measurable benefits for decision making in hydrology, agriculture, energy ,health and other sectors of society.

376 views • 21 slides

The Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting

The Science of Seasonal Climate Forecasting. Bill Stern GFDL/NOAA/Climate-Change-Variability-and-Prediction http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-change-variability-and-prediction http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bill-stern-gfdl-noaa Bill.Stern@noaa.gov 05 May 2011. Seasonal Climate Prediction at GFDL.

367 views • 28 slides

Probabilistic seasonal water supply forecasting in

Probabilistic seasonal water supply forecasting in an operational environment: the USDA-NRCS Perspective Tom Pagano Tom.Pagano@por.usda.gov 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service. Existing water supply forecasts Statistical forecasting methods

450 views • 31 slides

The fundamentals of Seasonal Forecasting

RA VI Clips Workshop. The fundamentals of Seasonal Forecasting. J.P. Céron – Météo-France. Some Vocabulary. Long Range Forecasts and Climate Forecasts Forecast Range, Forecast period and Lead time. Lead Time. Forecast Period. Forecast issue time. Forecast Range. LT - 1 month.

1.08k views • 81 slides

JMA Activity in Sub-seasonal Forecasting

JMA Activity in Sub-seasonal Forecasting. Climate Prediction Division / JMA Yuhei Takaya WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Implementation Planning Meeting 2-3 December 2011, Geneva Switzerland

375 views • 19 slides

Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO

Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO. Robert Stefanski/José Camacho Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department. Outline. Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture WIS and WIGOS

462 views • 27 slides

IRI Seasonal Forecasting Update

IRI Seasonal Forecasting Update. Models Run at IRI: 2-Tier. ECHAM4.5 T42L19 GHG Forcing will be added New SST scenario strategy ECHAM5 T42L19 GHG Forcing will be added CCM3 T42L19 CAM3/4? T42L19: GHG Forcing will be added. Models Run at IRI: 1-Tier.

304 views • 19 slides

Seasonal Climate Cycles

Seasonal Climate Cycles. Solar Radiation at the Earth’s Surface. WEAK GRADIENTS IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAXIMUM INSOLATION AT SOUTH POLE. JAN. WEAKER GRADIENTS AND WEAKER INSOLATION MAX HEATING IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MID-LATITUDES. FEB. WEAKEST GRADIENTS NEAR EQUATOR

245 views • 15 slides

Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier)

Water Management: Water Supply Forecasting (Lettenmaier). Improving water resources management in the western U.S. through use of remote sensing data and seasonal climate forecasts Lead PI: Dennis P. Lettenmaier (U. of Washington) Co-Is: Sooroosh Soorooshian (U. of California-Irvine)

376 views • 22 slides

Advances in weather, climate and water forecasting technologies

Advances in weather, climate and water forecasting technologies. Alasdair Hainsworth Bureau of Meteorology March 2011. Overview. Recent improvements in Weather and Climate Modelling: Are we making progress? Challenges in Modelling and Improving Forecasts

339 views • 18 slides

Forecasting Seasonal and

Forecasting Seasonal and Regional Typhoon Activity: A Track Based Approach. Pao-Shin Chu Department of Meteorology School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii. X. Zhao (UH)

337 views • 22 slides