National Tribal Forum on Air Quality June, 2011

1. National Tribal Forum on Air Quality June, 2011 Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner Swinomish Indian Tribal Community

2. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Understanding the challengesof climate change • Changes will happen regardless of action; how best to adapt • Changes not the same everywhere, vary locally and regionally • Changes will continue long term; thinking across generations • Uncertainty in data and projections, change may occur faster than projected IEA 2011: GHG emissions higher than ever, still increasing

3. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Some terms and references: • IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations) • Mitigation: Actions to try to reduce the causes of climate change • Adaptation: Actions to respond to the unavoidable effects of climate change, either actual or projected • Adaptive capacity: ability to respond to or accommodate changes

4. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation What Is Adaptation Planning? A process for evaluating and responding to the potential risks to the community from a range of projected impacts.

5. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Fundamentals of adaptation planning:underlying questions • What are the important elements of the community? (what needs to be protected) • What are existing conditions (not all changes are climate change), and what changes can be observed? (what is happening now) • What community values are important to response? (adaptation goals) • What is the level of awareness in the community of changes occurring? (outreach and communication) • What challenges/constraints exist in the community for response? (implementation)

6. Getting Started on Adaptation Preliminary scoping of issues, disciplines Assess organizational capacity, needs Organizational education and buy-in Define approach, methodology Identify funding, partners Community outreach Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

7. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Location of Swinomish Indian Reservation Fidalgo Island

8. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Swinomish Indian Reservation ISLAND FIDALGO SWINOMISH INDIAN RESERVATION Swinomish Village

9. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Potential sea level rise, WA state (CIG 2006)

10. Local Response to Climate Change: Swinomish Case Study Sea level rise scenarios, low-lying areas New High Tide (accelerated) New High Tide (conservative) MHHW Sea Level Rise (accelerated) Sea Level Rise (conservative) MLLW

11. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation

12. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Tidal surge, Swinomish Reservation Chilberg Ave.

13. Swinomish Climate Change Initiative Two-year, $400,000 project 80% federal funding (ANA), 20% Tribal Univ. of WA Climate Impacts Group (CIG), science advisors Advisory Partners: Town of LaConner, Skagit County, Shelter Bay Community Year 1: Impact assessment, outreach, strategy scoping Year 2: Develop recommendations, action plan Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation

14. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Preliminary impact assessment matrix

15. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Community Engagement Tribal Leaders Tribal Elders Tribal Youth

16. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Impact Assessment (Guidance: CIG/King County guidebook) • Impact Analysis: at-risk areas (zones), range/probability of impacts • Vulnerability Assessment: inventory risk zones, sensitivity/adaptive capacity • Risk Analysis: value of at-risk assets; vulnerability X probability = risk Technical Report (2009)

17. Impact Assessment Report Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation • Review of climate data • Broad impact analysis • Many disciplines/sectors • Risk zone mapping • Inventory of at-risk assets • Vulnerability assessment • Risk analysis • Basis for Action Plan

18. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Inundation Risk Zones – Sea Level Rise, Tidal Surge

19. Vulnerability Assessment of Wildfire Risk Zone,Swinomish Indian Reservation Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Structures

20. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Beach seining Fishing Impacts on tribal traditions Shellfish harvesting Native plants Cultural sites

21. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Strategy and Response Planning • Goals for adaptation planning • Strategy evaluation & priorities • Community input • Action recommendations • Coordination, funding needs • Implementation issues Action Plan Recommendations

22. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Adaptation Strategy Toolbox • Incentives/non-regulatory • Regulatory options and controls • Practical/engineering solutions • Risk prevention planning • Emergency preparedness

23. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Strategy evaluation criteria • Comprehensiveness: Addresses range of impacts and risk • Sustainability: Long-term solution, not band-aid fix • Dynamic approach: Responds to changing facts, circumstances • Fiscal impact/feasibility: Considers financial commitments, term • Community goals: Aligns with desires/needs of the community

24. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Community Engagement Events: School Science Fair Annual Tribal Clam Bake Earth Day Activities Communications: Tribal Newsletter Community Meetings Individual Interviews

25. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Toward Implementation:Mainstreaming Adaptation • Institutionalize across disciplines, sectors • Look for “no regrets” opportunities • Political barriers and constraints • Relevancy to real world issues • Partnerships: shared interests/burdens • Funding: options and sources

26. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Institutionalizing adaptation • Land use planning • Natural resource planning • Transportation planning • Infrastructure planning • Financial planning • Emergency planning

27. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Implementing Action Plan Priorities • Coastal zone measures ($$$) • Dike management authority ($$$$$) • Regional access preservation ($$$$$$$) • Wildfire control (Firewise) ($) • Local emergency planning ($)

28. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Maintaining momentum • Evaluating response: how to define and measure success • Ongoing monitoring: tracking science, data, conditions, and progress • Reality check: adaptation goals • Pacing response: incremental steps to deal with inertia, costs • Dealing with the unexpected: adaptive flexibility in planning

29. The Ultimate Beneficiaries: Working for future generations Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Results of our efforts may not be seen in our lifetime, but it’s up to us to start.

30. Climate Change: Adaptation to Implementation Credits & References • Swinomish Climate Change Initiative supported by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Administration for Native Americans. • Washington Department of Ecology (2006) Impacts of Climate Change on Washington’s Economy: A Preliminary Assessment of Risks and Opportunities, Publication No. 07-01-010, November, 2006. • Snover AK, Whitely Binder LC, Lopez J, Willmott E, Kay J, Howell D, Simmonds J (2007) Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments.In association with and published by ICLEI, Oakland, CA. • IPCC Working Group I (2007). Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York. • Photos: Channel Town Press (Doug Cole), Feb. 2006; Swinomish Indian Tribal Community. • Presentation preparation/contact: Ed Knight, AICP, Senior Planner, Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, LaConner, WA, 360-466-7304, eknight@swinomish.nsn.us. More information and complete copies of reports available on the Swinomish Climate Change web site, www.swinomish-nsn.gov/climate_change/project/reports.html