Tools for urban freight transport modelling

1. Tools for urban freight transport modelling 1st Scientific and Technical workshop Bologna, 05/11/2013 Dr Jacques Leonardi

2. Objectives • Overview of selected past experiences • Current approaches in use at UoW • Presenting key questions • Recommendations and needs for future improvements

3. Past experiences and models • FRETURB: linking demand to receiving activities, for example a small corner shop is expecting to receive 5-10 deliveries per week • Sources: Articles and reports from Jean-Louis Routhier, French surveys. • ECHO: linking shippers to logistics activities; demand is linked to sectors, size and locations. • Sources: Articles and report from Michele Guilbault and Christophe Rizet • Use in local decision making of FRETURB and ECHO?

4. Past experiences and models 2 • FIDEUS: Calculating the impacts of new technologies and Low Emission Zone on congestion, noise and emissions • Double lane unloading scenario • Telematics development for LEZ entry • Technology activating the low noise/low emission mode of the truck when entering the LEZ • Low noise technology is enabling the night deliveries of retail stores and small supermarket in city centres • Evaluation method: Trial measurements and calculations of noise reduction with/without technology – BCN, Lyon, Hannover

5. Past experiences and models 3 • SUGAR: a qualitative model of policy impact evaluation • Developing a universal grid to assess and compare all kinds of different initiatives, measures and policies • Using the grid for 44 Best Practice (BP) cases evaluation • Facilitate the transfer of BP to other places • Survey and ask the BP managers on the process • Understand the magnitude of the impacts, the key success factors, and the key barriers • Replication and effective transfer were not modelled • Towards a policy impact evaluation model for urban freight?

6. Current models at UoW • Before-after evaluation of trials • Ideas  small trials  upscale (industry scale) • Quantify the impacts on: • km (congestion), • fuel use (CO2), • logistics (units delivered), • economy (costs and employment), • technology (innovation, feasibility)

7. Understand changes • Understand policy implications of a future upscale • Process, design of the policy • Role of actors • Success factors • Barriers • Find the reasons for benefits and costs changes of the trials • Understand change in demand: Demand models and estimates are not available

8. Collect new data • Available data do not give any answer on the key current questions of how to support the growth of sustainable solutions on the market, or how businesses implement the new solutions with success • No data on how good a policy is performing • Almost never asked to perform a quantitative policy impact evaluation

9. BP case: Gnewtcargo evaluation • A BESTFACT example of modeling and calculating the impacts of the use of electric vehicles and small consolidation centre in the City of London

10. Electric tricycle and vehicle use in retail distribution in London • Micro-consolidation centre and complete replacement of the diesel van fleet by electric vans and tricycles • Reduction of 20% in the total distance driven by all vehicles/ parcel delivered. • The total CO2 equivalent (CO2eq) emissions per parcel delivered was 54% lower in May 2010 than in October 2009 before the trial. • This was due to the reduction in the total distance travelled per parcel and the use of electric vehicles using fuel generated from renewable, carbon-free sources in the City of London.

11. Method – transport CO2 intensity calculation The business provide data on fuel use (mpg or l/100km), distance, load, truck type and empty runs. Formula with: Cep = CO2 efficiency per product unit, in kgCO2e per unit (kg, box etc.) L = Mean fuel use (diesel) of all vehicles of the fleet (in litres/100km) D = Km between origin and destination of the supply chain leg E = Empty running factor (1 = no empty running; 2 = one empty return trip; average UK factor E = 1.27) M = Annual volume of products sold in units (kg, box etc.) 3.1672 = CO2 conversion factor : one litre diesel fuel = 3.1672 kgCO2e Source: DEFRA 2013: DEFRA emission factors

12. Conditions for growth • Public support but crisis and no bank loan • Large retailer willing to change operations • Successful start-up • Upscale with new clients • Convincing financial margins enabling payback of equity within one year • Growth from 5 to 40 vehicles in 3 years

13. Remarks on trial modeling • Before-after data collection and analysis is now in use in BESTFACT • No success story going up to industry scale that have included an independent before-after model and impact evaluation? • Understanding of policies and managerial issues is more qualitative, with very little hard data on impacts

14. Topics of Urban Freight initiatives • Urban consolidation centres & clean vehicles • Innovative traffic/street space management • Planning, environmental zones, access regulations • Urban logistic spaces • Consultation processes, PPP, charters • Use of rail and barge

15. FORS: An example of a quantitativepolicy impact assessment • The evaluation of the impacts, costs and benefits of different public policies in freight and logistics is not based on a widely recognised model • Different attempts were made to assess the externalities of freight plans or specific measures based on general European transport policy impact assessment methods, from the public sector perspective • The case of London and the results of the policy impact assessment of FORS will be shown.

16. Demand data: distance travelled by London freight Note: In the following, numbers in orange are the basis for assumptions used in the calculations Sources, unless specified: TfL FORS database; personal communications

17. Direct economic activity benefits in London in million £/year Values used to calculate turnover

18. Reference impact Tables Sources: Maibach et al. (2008) Handbook on estimation of external costs in the transport sector. Internalisation Measures and Policies for All external Cost of Transport (IMPACT). ec.europa.eu/transport/sustainable/doc/2008_costs_handbook.pdf J. Allen, M. Piecyk and A.C. McKinnon (2010) Internalising the External Costs ofLight and Heavy Goods Vehicle. Transport in London.http://www.greenlogistics.org/themesandoutputs/wm9/outputs.htm

19. FORS: Estimated impact on fuel use

20. FORS: estimated impact on fuel use and CO2

21. FORS social costs change according to values of CO2Savings 2008-2010 in million £

22. Further reading • City Logistics Conference 2013 and 2011 (diversity of models)http://www.citylogistics.org/City+Logistics+Bali+2013/postconference.htmlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/18770428/39 • BESTFACT evaluations of Best Practices www.bestfact.net/best-practices/ next Workshop on growth • SUGAR Handbook http://www.sugarlogistics.eu/pliki/handbook.pdf • SMARTFUSION comparative evaluation of electric vehicle trials www.smartfusion.eu

23. Recommendations and needs for future improvements • Variety of models and purpose • Original data collection effort is key for model development and application • Working together with businesses and public sector, but ‘independently’ • More trials and more independent quantitative policy impact evaluations! • Towards a standardised trial evaluation model in urban freight?