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Risk Analysis

SAF. ETY. Risk Analysis. By: Mohamed Farouk Elberry. PART 1 Basic Concepts. What is inside?. Integrated Safety Management System ISMS. Leader. Operations. Adjustment / Improvement. 2. Risk Assessment & Management 3. Training & Orientation 4. Facilities Design & Construction

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Risk Analysis

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  1. SAF ETY Risk Analysis By: Mohamed Farouk Elberry

  2. PART 1 Basic Concepts What is inside?

  3. Integrated Safety Management System ISMS Leader Operations Adjustment / Improvement • 2. Risk Assessment & Management • 3. Training & Orientation • 4. Facilities Design & Construction • Operations & Maintenance • Management of Change • 7. Contractors • 8. Documentation System • 9. Crisis & Emergency Management • 10. Incident Investigation & Analysis 11. Audit & Management Review 1. Leadership & Accountability

  4. Management to meet regulation Risk Management Present & Future Proactive Accident Prevention Correction after Accident Reactive Yesterday Prescriptive & Regulatory Goal-setting & Self-regulatory Evolution of Safety Management System

  5. The Risk Management Process • The total procedure associated with • Identifying a hazard, • Assessing the risk, • Putting in place control measures, and • Reviewing the outcomes.

  6. What Is Risk? Risk is defined as the probability that a substance or situation will produce harm under specified conditions. Risk is a combination of two factors: • The probability that an adverse event will occur (such as a specific disease or type of injury). • The consequences of the adverse event. Safety-Related Risk encompasses impacts on public health and on the environment, and arises from exposure and hazard. Risk does not exist if exposure to a harmful substance or situation does not or will not occur.

  7. What is a risk? Risk may be considered as the potential for adverse effects resulting from an activity or event

  8. Acceptable level of risk This is generally determined by what is prepared to be lost balanced against possible gains

  9. Individual Perceptions Risk is a very individual concept. It is different for every one. Consider the activity of driving. On a scale of 1-5 how would you rate driving as a daily activity? For a Grand Prix Driver? A Taxi Driver? My 88 year old grandmother?

  10. Risk Risk is often viewed very differently from individual to individual. Another thing to consider is that peoples perceptions change as familiarity increases the perception of a hazard and its risks change.

  11. Balance between Risk and Benefit

  12. Risk Benefit Zero Risk Does Not Practically Exist!

  13. Balance between Risk and Benefit

  14. Benefit Risk Zero Risk Does Not Practically Exist!

  15. How Big? How Often? Consequence Frequency or likelihood ? What is Risk?

  16. What is HAZARD ? Hazard is determined by whether a particular substance or situation has the potential to cause harmful effects.

  17. What Is Risk Assessment? • Risk assessment is the systematic, scientific characterization of potential adverse effects of human or ecological exposures to hazardous agents or activities. • Risk assessment is performed by considering the types of hazards, the extent of exposure to the hazards, and information about the relationship between exposures and responses, including variation in susceptibility. • Adverse effects or responses could result from exposures to chemicals, micro organisms, radiation, or natural events.

  18. What Is Risk Management? • Risk management is the process of • identifying, • evaluating, • selecting, and • implementing actions to reduce risk to human health and to ecosystems.

  19. What Is Risk Management? • The goal of risk management is • scientifically sound, • cost-effective, • integrated actions that reduce or prevent risks while taking into account social, cultural, ethical, political, and legal considerations.

  20. ASSESS HAZARDS DEVELOP CONTROLS & MAKE DECISIONS IDENTIFY HAZARDS IMPLEMENT CONTROLS SUPERVISE AND EVALUATE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS Managers develop tools, techniques and procedures for applying risk management in their areas of responsibility.

  21. The goal is to reduce risk to a tolerable level … fully communicating any residual risk to the concerned.

  22. Hazard Safety Source or situation with a potential for harm in terms of human injury or ill health, damage to property, damage to the workplace environment, or a combination of these. Freedom from unacceptable risk of harm. Hazard identification Process of recognizing that a hazard exists and defining its characteristics. Hazard Terminologies ( OHSAS 18001 )

  23. Accident incident Near miss Undesired event giving rise to death, ill health, injury, damage, or other loss. Event that gave rise to an accident or had the potential to lead to an accident. An incident where no ill health, injury, damage, or other loss occurs. Hazard Terminologies ( OHSAS 18001 )

  24. Risk Combination of the likelihood and consequence(s) of a specified hazardous event occurring. Risk assessment Overall process of estimating the magnitude of risk and deciding whether or not the risk is tolerable. Tolerable risk Risk that has been reduced to a level that can be endured by the organization having regard to its legal obligations and its own OH&S policy. Hazard Terminologies ( OHSAS 18001 )

  25. Methods of Identifying and Assessing Hazards

  26. Risk definitions compared

  27. Hazard Identification

  28. Consequences

  29. Likelihood

  30. Hazard Control

  31. Acceptance Criteria

  32. ALARP As Low As Reasonably Practicable The point at which the cost of further risk reduction becomes (grossly) disproportionate to the risk reduction achieved.

  33. Better Methods for Prevention

  34. Risk of fatality 1 in 1000 per year GWA NRA WAN NE ALARP Region OGP 1 in 10,000 per year 1 in 100,000 per year Negligible Risk Individual Risk Levels

  35. ALARP Process • A process of identifying and evaluating proposals for risk reduction • Evaluation of the benefit and comparison with estimated costs • Evaluation can be intuitive, qualitative, comparative or quantitative • Quantifying cost/benefits means that proposals can be ranked against each other and compared to a hurdle criteria

  36. Proportionality: Type of ALARP Demo.

  37. Risk Matrix (Illustrative) Likely >10-2 Intolerable Intolerable Intolerable Intolerable Intolerable TIFALARP (Intolerable if Fatality >10-3) TIFALARP (Intolerable if Fatality >10-3) Unlikely 10-4-10-2 Intolerable Intolerable Intolerable TIFALARP TIFALARP TIFALARP /Intolerable TIFALARP /Intolerable Intolerable Very Unlikely 10-6-10-4 TIFALARP/Broadly Acceptable? TIFALARP TIFALARP Remote 10-6-10-8 Broadly Acceptable Broadly Acceptable Single Fatality 2-10 Fatalities 11-50 Fatalities 50-100 Fatalities 100+ Fatalities

  38. Hazard Recognition Exercise: What's wrong with the following pictures?

  39. This newly-married young man is welding on a gas tank under this pickup truck. This procedure has been used many times before without incident.

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