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Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in a Coupled

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VIÇOSA & UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN. Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in a Coupled Climate-Vegetation Regional Model. Flávio Justino Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Jefferson Prietsch, José M. N. Costa. OUTLINE.

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Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in a Coupled

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  1. UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE VIÇOSA & UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN Greenhouse Gas Induced Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of the Amazon Basin in a Coupled Climate-Vegetation Regional Model Flávio Justino Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Jefferson Prietsch, José M. N. Costa

  2. OUTLINE Modelling Aproach Seasonal Climate Changes 2m temperature Precipitation Climate Induced Vegetation Changes Wildfire Susceptibility

  3. MODELLING APROACH - Regional Atmospheric Model – MM5 60Km (from 55°S to 12°N, and 28°W to 92°W), 24 vertical levels resolution - Potential Vegetation Model (PVM, Oyama and Nobre, 2004)‏ PD and GHG Simulations NCEP Boundary Conditions (1980-2000)‏ CCCma IPCC-AR4 A1B (2080-2100)‏

  4. MODELLING APROACH

  5. RESULTS Present Day (PD) x Greenhouse Warming (GW) Simulations

  6. GW-PD Anomalies t2m Prec ETp q2

  7. SEASONAL CHANGES , Harmonic Analysis Phase Variance Amplitude

  8. Variance of the Annual Harmonic GW Present Day t2m Prec

  9. Phase Angle Present Day GW t2m Prec

  10. Amplitude Present Day GW t2m Prec

  11. WHAT ABOUT VEGETATION CHANGES?

  12. 2081-2100 1980-2000 70%REDUCTION BY 2070 Vegetation Changes Regional Climate Simulation (Cook and Vizy 2008 JCLI)‏ MM5 coupled to PVM

  13. Atmospheric Susceptibility to Wildfire Activity

  14. Paleofires

  15. Haines Index Present day and Greenhouse Warming

  16. Wildfire and Greenhouse Gases Anomalies 2080-2100 Climatology Temp. 7-10

  17. Wildfire and Greenhouse Gases Climatology Prec. 7-10 Anomalies 2080-2100

  18. Modelling Wildfire Susceptibility Haines Index If A+B >= 12 Moderate fire risk If A+B >= 24 High fire risk

  19. Oct Aug Sep

  20. Conclusion

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