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CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score

CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score. Full Field. Detrended field. CNRM-CM5 Contribution to CMIP5 20 dates (1959, 1960, 1964, 1965 … 2004, 2005) 10 members for each date Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (10 members). Most of the skill is due to the trend

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CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score

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  1. CMIP5 : 2m correlation skill score Full Field Detrended field • CNRM-CM5 Contribution to CMIP5 • 20 dates (1959, 1960, 1964, • 1965 … 2004, 2005) • 10 members for each date • Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (10 members) • Most of the skill is due to the trend • Added value of the ocean initialization and high skill • The first year • In the North Atlantic Ocean + western Pacific • Poor skill in the central and eastern Pacific

  2. Beyond CMIP5 : work on ocean initialization • Ocean initialization :Nudging to the ECMWF ocean reanalysis NEMOVAR (ORCA1°) [1958 -2008] • Several tests have been performed to set the optimal parameters for surface and subsurface restoring GLOB No 3D nudging within the 1°S–1°N band EXTROP No 3D nudging Within the 15°S–15°N band

  3. Beyond CMIP5 : work on ocean initialization Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Yr4 NINO34 SST Ensemble mean (dates+members) Nino34 SST index Perturbation of the tropical climate up to 4yr (systematic NINO the 1st and 3rd year) when subsurface are initialized in the tropics

  4. Beyond CMIP5: impact of the stratosphere LT • Low Top configuration • 61 vertical level (5 hPa) • T63 horizontal Grid Full Field • High Top configuration • 91 vertical level (0.01 hPa) with exact same levels as LT in the troposphere • T63 horizontal Grid HT • Experiments • 10 dates (1980, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1996, 2001) • 5 more to come (1989, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2003) • 6 members for each date • 5 years long Detrended field No significant changes compared to CMIP5 No significant added value when the stratosphere is well resolved

  5. Beyond CMIP5 : the 2006-2023 forecast • Model : CNRM-CM5 • Initialization : Same as CMIP5 • 3 series of 10 members for 2006-2021 forecast • Control ensemble (decadal): RCP4.5 forcing + solar • Fictitious Pinatubo-like eruption in 2010 (VolcIn2010) • Suppressed 11yr solar cycle (SolarMin : maintain to the 2009 record minimum over the forecast period) • + 1 series of 10 members for 2006-2021 RCP4.5 projection 2m-Temperature Global precip • Colder start when initialized in 2006 versus RCP4.5 • Warmer climate at the end of the forecast vs RCP4.5 • Fictitious Pinatubo significant effect up to 2016 • Minor global effect for SUN

  6. Volcanic forcing : regional features 2m-Temperature WINTER SUMMER MSLP 2m-Temperature 2m-Temperature MSLP Mean [2010-2014] difference between the fictitious Pinatubo exp. and the control decadal experiment

  7. Solar forcing : regional features 2m-Temperature WINTER SUMMER MSLP 2m-Temperature 2m-Temperature MSLP Mean [2011-2016] difference between the SolarMin exp. and the control decadal experiment

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