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Guar Scenario

Mapping The Market Thought of Guar complex by Nagaraj Meda Managing Director TransGraph Consulting Pvt.Ltd. Guar Scenario. 24 th Nov, 2013. 11 th Oct’2014. Market Risk Management Solutions. “what to do” + “what not to do”. Client. Positions. Database.

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Guar Scenario

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  1. Mapping The Market Thought of Guar complex by Nagaraj Meda Managing Director TransGraphConsulting Pvt.Ltd Guar Scenario 24thNov, 2013 11th Oct’2014

  2. Market Risk Management Solutions “what to do” + “what not to do” Client Positions Database Risk Management Software Exposure + P&L + Risk Engagement Manager Pricing & Hedging Guidelines Customized Strategies Pricing + Hedging Risk Reporting Price Outlook Services Commodity + Currency + Economy Risk Management Policy Hedge Model + SOPs + MIS Profitability & Risk Management

  3. Guar- Price Outlook

  4. Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Review

  5. Guar yearly average prices Source:TG Crop year: Oct to Sep

  6. Competitive Crop Scenario Source:TG & CACP Last two years in western Rajasthan there has been increase in soybean and Maize cultivation also along with Guar.

  7. Rainfall in Gaur region during the guar sowing Source: IMD In Rajasthan sowing period 72% of rainfall deficit have seen, which have kept lower sown guar sown area this year. Meanwhile in Gujarat 27% deficit was observed and Haryana near 54% deficit rainfall observed.

  8. Guar sown acreage in guar region Source:TG & agri departments Guar sown acreage declined significantly across guar region due to scanty rainfall during the sowing period. In Rajasthan acreage declined near 14%, whereas, in Gujarat and Haryana declined above 35% acreage from last year sown area.

  9. India Guar sown area Source:TG & Rajasthan agri department

  10. Indian Guar production Source:TG year: Oct to Sep

  11. Domestic Guar gum demand Source:TG Year: Oct to Sep Indian guar gum consumption may decline by 13% for 2014-15 year due to anticipation of rise in guar gum prices by lower production, so Textile and Paper & Paper board industry may turn to other substitute products.

  12. Guar gum exports sector wise Source:TG Year: Oct to Sep Anticipation of rise in guar prices may impact guar gum consumption in Food, Textile and other industries due to they have alternative (substitute) source at cheaper prices.

  13. Expected Guar gum consumption sector wise in 2014-15 Source:TG • In total Indian guar gum exports 62% of gum is consumed by US shale industry, remaining is food , paper and textile industry. • In domestic markets major players are Food, Paper and Textile industries.

  14. Indian Guar gum exports Source:TG & DGFT Year : Oct to Sep

  15. Indian Guar Balance sheet Source :TG Crop year: Oct to Sep

  16. Technical Price Outlook

  17. Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Preferred-Long Term Guar Seed prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR4080 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 6266 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 4900 ahead of turning higher towards INR 8500 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .

  18. Guar Gum Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Elliot Wave count-Preferred-Long Term Guar Gum prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR 10900 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 17440 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 13500-13000 ahead of turning higher towards INR 28000 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .

  19. Guar Seed and Guar Gum Spot Market Price Outlook Price Outlook Summery: 1)Guar Seed Prices are likely to remain sideways to slightly negative to post a low around INR 4900 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 8500-8800 in the coming 6-7 months. 2)Guar Gum Prices are likely to remain sideways to negative to post a low around INR 13000 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 27500-28000 in the coming 6-7 months. 19

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