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Risks and Risk Management in GBS

Risks and Risk Management in GBS. Stephen Lister 10 May 2006 . Perspective on risks. Various types (but interlocking): Macroeconomic risks and volatility Fiduciary risks Corruption Political risks and durability Risks to whom (donors, governments (MDA), citizens) Risks peculiar to GBS?

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Risks and Risk Management in GBS

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  1. Risks and Risk Management in GBS Stephen Lister 10 May 2006

  2. Perspective on risks • Various types (but interlocking): • Macroeconomic risks and volatility • Fiduciary risks • Corruption • Political risks and durability • Risks to whom (donors, governments (MDA), citizens) • Risks peculiar to GBS? • Risk mitigation (across instruments and modalities) Risks and Risk Management

  3. Macroeconomic Risks and Volatility • Unpredictability (short-term and in-year) • Spread of macroeconomic conditionality (and risks of collective decisions) • Undermine revenue effort • Absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, bias vs. private sector, etc Risks and Risk Management

  4. Fiduciary Risks • The DFID tripod of fiduciary risks: • not used for intended purpose • not properly accounted for • not value for money • Risks to whom • Relative vulnerability of different modalities • Credibility of safeguards • Ring-fencing / short and long term views Risks and Risk Management

  5. Corruption • Victims? • Measurement? (and interpretation) • Corruption’s effects on aid and aid’s effects on corruption • Corruption and politics • Visibility vs. effectiveness of anti-corruption strategies • Complementary instruments Risks and Risk Management

  6. Political Risks and Durability • Sources of risk • breakdown in trust (?related more to underlying principles than technical performance) • donor stamina (individual/collective) • Mitigation • formalisation of PGBS understandings and procedures • risk analysis linked to instrument design • raise quality of discussion Risks and Risk Management

  7. Summary: Mitigating Risks • Better evidence on relative risks • Shared risk analysis (and share risks?) • Codifying procedures and standards • Realistic expectations • Better evidence on performance • Design of individual instruments and portfolios • Raise quality of aid debates Risks and Risk Management

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