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POLICY SESSION

POLICY SESSION. BUDGET 2009 EDUCATION AND SKILLS POLICY IN ENGLAND Mark Corney, MC Consultancy – AM 25/4/2009. POLICY SESSION. Strategic Messages Key Announcements Thinking about the Future. STRATEGIC MESSAGE.

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POLICY SESSION

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  1. POLICY SESSION BUDGET 2009 EDUCATION AND SKILLS POLICY IN ENGLAND Mark Corney, MC Consultancy – AM 25/4/2009

  2. POLICY SESSION • Strategic Messages • Key Announcements • Thinking about the Future

  3. STRATEGIC MESSAGE Borrowing to create recovery followed by severe belt tightening between 2010 and 2018 or reduce fiscal deficit through spending cuts now for quicker return to growth and fiscal balance

  4. STRATEGIC MESSAGE some consensus on preventing mass long-term unemployment amongst under 25s now but debate on the means

  5. STRATEGIC MESSAGE additional resources to welfare to work relative to adult skills and higher education

  6. STRATEGIC MESSAGE DWP and JCP the big winners

  7. STRATEGIC MESSAGES • recession is deeper and longer than forecast • deep fall in output in 2009 (-3.5%) • potential return to growth in 2010 (1.0%) • assumed big bounce in growth 2011 (3.5%) • implications for budget deficit and unemployment

  8. STRATEGIC MESSAGES • Short-term public finances General Election - fiscal easing this year 2009/10 (£5bn) June 3 - no growth in 2010/11 2010 - fiscal tightening in 2011/12 (5bn) - £35bn efficiencies 2008/09 to 2010/11 - extra £5bn efficiencies on top of £30bn

  9. STRATEGIC MESSAGES • Medium-term public finances New Government - borrowing requirements £175bn per year - very tight real terms average of 0.7% real terms a year between 2011/12-13/14 - 40% fiscal deficit 2017/18 two full parliaments

  10. STRATEGIC MESSAGES • Unemployment - fall in output until December 2009 - unemployment a lagging indicator - unemployment will be rising when growth returns - 2m ILO now – 3m Spring 2010 - under 25s 18-24s + 16-17 Year Olds NEET RPA

  11. KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS Over and Above PBR 2008 • 0-19 • Adult LSC and Higher Education • Welfare to Work • Regions, Sub-Regions and Localities • Industrial Activisim

  12. KEY ANNOUNCEMENTS • Revenue Provision Financial Support • Capital • Efficiency Savings • 2009/10 • 2010/11

  13. 0-19 - DCSF • STEM £2m post-16 Maths • No RPA Focus on 16-17s • Revenue Provision £251m in 2009/10 £404m in 2010/11 54,000 places 6th forms + FE 17,500 places apprenticeships 72,000 places [190,000 16/17 in jobs] financial support increase in CB CTC • Capital £80m colleges b/f

  14. 0-19 - DCSF • £251m + £404m no new money efficiency savings • original efficiency savings £4.4bn 08/09-10/11 1% in schools – 3% NDPBs • new efficiency savings £0.65bn 08/09-10/11 further savings across DCSF/NDPBs economies of scale 16-19

  15. ADULT LSC AND HE - DIUS • revenue no HE provision Adult LSC £122m for skills of unemployed 18-24s (including 70,000 pre-employment training places) • capital £300m FE 08/09-10/11 LSC £300m FE 2011/12-2013/14 £1.2bn total in 2011/12-13/14

  16. ADULT LSC AND HE - DIUS • original efficiency savings £1.54bn 08/09-10/11 more effective Research Councils – HE estates – renewed FE/HE efficiencies • new efficiency savings £0.40bn 08/09-10/11 extra £106m by Research Councils

  17. WELFARE TO WORK - DWP • Job Centre Plus 2009/10 2010/11 £590m £1,080m • Provision £300m £900m Jobs, training, work placement guarantee for 18-25s unemployed for 12 months (Stage 4 – FDL) £260m for growing sectors - 50,000 trainees care sector - 100,000 new jobs by Las socially useful activity - 50,000 LA area with unemployment

  18. WELFARE TO WORK - DWP • original efficiency savings £1.3bn 08/09-10/11 • new efficiency savings £120m 08/09-10/11

  19. HIGHER EDUCATION AND WELFARE TO WORK • 18-24 unemployment 2009/10 2010/11 - 6 month unemployed £500m [PBR] - 12 month unemployed £300m £900m • full-time 18-24 higher education - applications up 9% (42,000) 0m 0m - applications up 15% for 18-24 0m 0m

  20. REGIONS, SUB-REGIONS AND LOCALITIES • Regions Government work with RDAs to reprioritise single pot Yorkshire Digital Region • City Region London - LSEB powers of direction adult LSC/SFA funding • New Pilot City Regions Manchester and Leeds

  21. BERR – INDUSTRIAL ACTIVISM • Strategic investment Fund New Industry, New Jobs HM Government 2009-10 2010-11 £400m £350m £250m low carbon investment £50m Technology Strategy Board some links with skills possible

  22. WELFARE TO WORK AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVISM Role of Sectors £260m for skills and subsidies in growing sectors as part of 18-25s package Skills for growing sectors in £750m industrial Activism package

  23. THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE • 16-17 Year Olds Full-Time Education Recession ILO NEET? Employer Apprenticeships Jobs without Training Employer Funded Training Jobs and Part-Time Education ILO NEET EI NEET

  24. THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE • Higher Education Full-Time HE 17-20 20-24 24-29 30+ Recession Part-Time HE 17-20 employer 20-24 v 24-29 individual 30+

  25. THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE • Adult Employer and Individual Responsive Employer Train to Gain Adult Apprenticeships Individual 19+ Full-Time FE 19+ Part-Time FE • Job Centre Plus large increases

  26. THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE Recession causes greater demand for full-time HE (17-24) + individually-driven part-time adult FE + part-time HE + 18-24 unemployment programmes relative to employer-driven Train to Gain + employer-co funded HE + employer support part-time adult FE + employer 18+ apprenticeships

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