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2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail

2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail. Kenneth Kruse, FPCI,FCPCI March 18, 2011. Market Update Contents. Construction Market Forecast Summary Total Construction by Building Type US State Detail, attached Cement Consumption US & State Projections

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2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail

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  1. 2011 Construction Market Forecast & Precast Detail Kenneth Kruse, FPCI,FCPCI March 18, 2011

  2. Market Update Contents Construction Market Forecast Summary Total Construction by Building Type US State Detail, attached Cement Consumption US & State Projections Concrete Projections by Industry Segment for reference Precast Snap Shot Selected Building Parking Projections Bridge Projections “I do not always use concrete, But when I do ,I use Precast!’

  3. Market Forecast Snapshot • 2010 the market saw a slight contraction • -1 %Overall Construction Starts • Commercial contracted (-14%) • Cement Consumption (+0.3%) • Precast/Prestressed concrete (PCI) production flat (0%) • Precast concrete (NPCA) (-6%) 2011 the market will be on the up swing according to several major forecasting services • +5% Overall Construction Starts ( McGraw Hill) • +1.4% (Portland Cement Association) • +2% (Global Insights) PIP • Precast/Prestressed concrete production +5% • Precast concrete (NPCA) +2%

  4. Construction Starts 2011 F to 2015 FMH CMFS 1st Qtr 2011

  5. March 17,2011US Department of Commerce • Home Construction plunged 22.5% in February from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 479,000 units • Original 2011 Projection was 580,000 units • Building permits fell 8.1% in February to its lowest level on record dating to 1960. • The US DJIA is off 5% since the first of the year and suffered its first pull back since August 2010. • Why? • Japan • Oil • Middle East Unrest

  6. Construction Starts 1980 to 2010 actual2011 to 2015 P

  7. Construction Starts Total Building DetailMH CMFS 1st Qtr 2011

  8. US Forecast PIP Global Insights

  9. Regional Projections

  10. Portland Cement ConsumptionPCA • The -26.9 % contraction in cement consumption for 2009 was the largest decline in over 20 years ! • For 2010, cement consumption was + 0.3%. Flat • 2011 Forecast is for US cement consumption to +1.4%

  11. Cement ForecastPCA Cement Consumption will be + 1.4% in 2011

  12. Cement Consumption ProjectionsPCA

  13. Cement Consumption by Selected State

  14. Cement Consumption by Sector – 2010Portland Cement Association 115,000,000 Metric Tons Precast - Prestressed 10.3% Other 5% CMU, Pavers, SRWs – 11.3% Ready Mixed – 73.4%

  15. 2009 Regional Cement Consumption

  16. 2011 Cement Consumption by RegionPCA

  17. US Ready Mix Production Snap Shot73 % of Concrete Production in US • 2010 0% 256 M yd3 2011P + 4% 269 M yd3 Lost 200 M cy3 from 2005 to 2009 Lost almost 100 M yd3 2008 vs 2009

  18. Precast Inventoried Products (NPCA) -6% in 2010 +2 % P for 2011

  19. MCP Market HistorySource: Freedonia September 2010 Report 2010 7.7 6500 -2.0% -9.0% 2011 8.2 6950 8.0% +6.8%

  20. Precast /Prestressed Snapshot

  21. PCI Type Sales 2009Member Survey2010 data not available yet

  22. Primary Segments of Precast Construction Industry Sales (Percent)2009 Other includes Stores, Hospitals, Multifamily, Religious, sport complexes, Government, Hotels and Residential

  23. Construction Starts $ and Sq Ft for Key Building TypesMH & Reed December 2010

  24. Schools & Bridges $ Starts

  25. Parking

  26. Top 10 States for Parking Garage Construction California New York Texas Illinois Ohio Florida District of Columbia Pennsylvania Washington Virginia Top Parking Garage Construction By State

  27. Bridge Construction • Highway and bridge construction will decelerate as the ARRA’s beneficial effects diminish. Activity will slip 4% in 2011 before rebounding somewhat in 2012. Very slow rates of job growth mean that federal, state and local revenues will increase slowly, at best, over the next few years, constraining spending across the board. •  The current forecast for highway and bridge construction is down almost $3 billion for the six years 2010 to 2015.

  28. So what about the Precast/Prestressed Market ?

  29. Precast/Prestressed Industry Revenue$ Billions2006 to 2010 Actual2011 to 2015 Projections

  30. Opportunities for 2011 & Beyond • 2011 the US market will be on the up swing • +5% Overall Construction( MH) • +1.4% (PCA) • +2 (GI) • +5% Precast concrete production • Opportunities in Sustainability!

  31. Sustainable Construction is a great opportunity for Precast/ Prestressed Even though commercial construction has contracted the last 3 years, the number of USGBC LEED projects has continued to grow!

  32. Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! LEED Registered Projects- Commercial

  33. Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! LEED Certified Projects - Commercial

  34. Sustainable Commercial Projects Are Growing! Square Feet

  35. MAPA State DetailForecast 2010 to 2015 PIP • New York • Virginia • Washington DC • Pennsylvania • West Virginia • Delaware • New Jersey • Maryland • i

  36. New York +3%

  37. Virginia-2%

  38. Washington DC +8%

  39. Maryland +10%

  40. PA +3%

  41. New Jersey -1%

  42. WV +1%

  43. Delaware -1%

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