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Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006

Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006. Can we reduce costs significantly by changing suppression strategies?. Contemporary Suppression Strategies. Photo By: Tom Iraci. Magnitude of the Fire Season Nationally. Photo By: Tom Iraci.

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Fire, Fuels, and Aviation Leadership Oct 2006

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  1. Fire, Fuels, and Aviation LeadershipOct 2006 Can we reduce costs significantly by changing suppression strategies? Contemporary Suppression Strategies Photo By: Tom Iraci

  2. Magnitude of the Fire Season Nationally Photo By: Tom Iraci

  3. Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation; • NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned; • Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned; • FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

  4. Acres burned have risen by more than 8% per year; after adjusting for inflation; • NF suppression expenditures have risen by an annual rate of approximately 10%, slightly more than the rate of growth in acres burned; • Approximately 80 percent of the variation in expenditures can be explained by the variation in acres burned; • FS suppression expenditures per acre, after adjusting for inflation, have risen by approximately 1.5% annually, but the rate of increase is not statistically significant….kg/bb

  5. Note: FY 09/10/11 are estimates; assumptions include 0.15% reduction/year in discretionary funding; flat WFPR appropriation; WFSU at 10 Year Moving average. Assumes $800 million WFSU for FY 07/08/09.

  6. LF Costs Reserve Funds IA Responsibility LF 10 year ave. >cost burden Changing the burden of increased Large Fire costs on Agency’s Budget Interior Appropriations (Millions of Dollars) Time Expected annual decline, 2.5% Current Future Constrained budget Known as Partitioning

  7. Lets Talk More About Cost Significant Reduction In Expenditures Will Only Come With Major Shifts In Suppression Strategies And Taking Greater Risks, Which Will Require Broader Ownership Of Suppression Strategies Being Implemented. My Opinion Photo By: Tom Iraci

  8. A Comment • Regional Budget: $500 million • 2006 Pre-Suppression & Suppression: $275 million • Spent Within ~75 Days Seems Reasonable We Should Have Broader Ownership For How We Do This Work And Spend This Money. Photo By: Tom Iraci

  9. Ownership Taking More Risk Means Local AAs Will Need Major Support, Even When Strategies Are Going Well. • Region And WO • Social/Political • Administration There Will Be Increased Risk To: • Local Revenue Sources • Life And Property • Habitat Due To Uncharacteristic (Intense) Fire • Air Quality (Visibility And Health Affects) • Political Stability for the Agency, And • Perhaps Even To Higher Costs Photo By: Tom Iraci

  10. Bear Gulch II— Start 7/25/06 Point Protection Strategy Fire active for 45+ days 1,055 ac $1.8Million $1,700/ac Westside Fire Typically Costs $5,000-$6,000/ac. Can We Shift Strategies? Photo By: Tom Iraci

  11. We Can Use Science To Help Validate Strategies and to Communicate to the Public 60-80% 40-60% 10-20% 20-40% <5% Staircase Ranger Station 80+% Homes begin

  12. Can We Shift Strategies? • Tatoosh Fire • Start Date: 8/22/06 • Monitor Strategy • Fire Active for 22+ Days • We had no Resources • 54,000+ Ac • $33,000 • $1/ Ac • Freezeout (2004) • 838 Ac • $2.5 Million • $3000/Ac Photo By: Tom Iraci

  13. Blister Fire Start 8/11/06 Full Control Strategy Contained In 13 Days 735 Ac $4.8 Million $6,600/Ac Is Other Than Full Control Possible On The West Side? Can We Shift Strategies? Photo By: Tom Iraci

  14. Can We Shift Strategies? 7/9/06 • Tinpan • Started July 8, 2006 • WFU • Fire Active 75+ Days • 9,247 Ac • $8.2 Million • $886/Ac 7/24/06 Photo By: Tom Iraci

  15. Can We Shift Strategies? • Tripod Fire • Combination Of Strategies • Started 7/24/06 • Active 60+ Days • 175,000 Ac • $83 Million • $475/Ac (Fed) • $1,000/Ac (State) • Managing Fire In 100,000+ Ac Of Dead Trees is a Challenge. • Will: • More Patience, with • A Contemporary Strategy • And, Political Support Help Reduce Cost? One Of Many Similar 1,000 Ac. Columns Photo By: Tom Iraci

  16. Management Efficiency Description #1 Better use, and allocation/reallocation, of FF resources. • Currently, the dispatch and coordination system works on a 1st come 1st serve bases at the lower PL’s. Many times, more resources are ordered than are absolutely needed to manage a fire. This is a result of risk adverse management -- there is no incentive to take risks. • Fires that follow, which may actually have a higher priority, find themselves wanting for resources and perhaps resulting in high value losses and in the long run costing the American public more in suppression cost and resources losses.

  17. Management Efficiency Description #2 • Be more bold, and better utilize the full spectrum of AMRs! • Risk aversion is leading us away from lower cost suppression alternatives. • We need to better utilize patience and ‘contemporary’ thinking when developing the AMR. • Creativity and finesse are still missing when searching for the AMR. • AMR is still misunderstood. • Given the new planning rule, lack of national direction for FMP’s may limit AMR possibilities .

  18. Management Efficiency Description #3 • Standardization • Equipment -- such as engines • National Contract or agreement standards for FF resources • IT and Camp Support

  19. Management Efficiency Description #4 • Validate that the number and mix of our EU and CWN resources are appropriate, and identify the proper procurement method is used. • A crew study done by the PNW Research station suggests that it is cheaper to use agency crews over contract crews if the utilization is high. • Study utilization of both aerial and ground National FF resources to determine the appropriate mix of EU vs. CWN and agency crews vs. contract crews.

  20. Rhetorical QuestionsDo We Want To: • Have Broader Input And Ownership Of Suppression Strategies? • Take Greater Risk To Try and Reduce Costs? • “Beef-up” Our Initial Attack? • Change How We Engage Our Social/Political Partners? • Develop Training For Management To Design And Implement Contemporary Suppression Strategies? • Change the way we tell the story about the good work we do to reduce cost? Photo By: Tom Iraci

  21. Discussion Topics • What is a ‘contemporary’ strategy? • What are the risks associated with ‘contemporary’ suppression strategies? • How do you plan for ‘contemporary’ suppression strategies? Including: • Line Officers • Public • Political We are looking for a few ‘nuggets’ to help build and validate accountability, how we can measure our success, and better tell our successes.

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