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Sketch Transit Planning Approaches

Sketch Transit Planning Approaches. 2012 NCAMPO Conference Nathaniel Grier, PE. Agenda. Transit ridership and cost-effectiveness model Transit corridor evaluation. Study Context. Upcoming update of area master plan Need to understand potential for transit Impacts Ridership Corridors

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Sketch Transit Planning Approaches

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  1. Sketch Transit Planning Approaches 2012 NCAMPO Conference Nathaniel Grier, PE

  2. Agenda • Transit ridership and cost-effectiveness model • Transit corridor evaluation

  3. Study Context • Upcoming update of area master plan • Need to understand potential for transit • Impacts • Ridership • Corridors • Technology

  4. Study Context • Proposed large development • The last large, relatively undeveloped tract in the area • Developer’s vision includes strong TOD element • Adjacent to rapidly growing federal campus • Proposed hospital

  5. Data Available • TAZ-level forecasts of population, HH, employment • Roadway ADTs • Intersection counts • Future model volumes

  6. Model Formulation • Identify corridor-mode pairings • Estimate costs based on per-mile averages • Develop cost-effectiveness thresholds • Back into ridership targets • Identify ridership from existing development • Estimate amount of new development to generate ridership • Evaluate alternatives based on feasibility of development, costs, traffic impacts

  7. Study Alignments

  8. FTA New Starts Projects: CCPWP vs CCPHUB Source: Montgomery County Planning, M-NCPPC

  9. Model Detail – Ridership Target

  10. Trip Estimation • Identify TAZs serving corridor • Convert Jobs, HH to GSF of development • Regional average workers per GSF by sector • Estimate sector breakout by TAZ (if not already available) • Use local knowledge to estimate future mode split (new line and all non-auto) • Estimate sector breakdown of additional development, internal capture • Use adjusted trip generation rates to identify future vehicle trips

  11. Model Detail – Development and Traffic

  12. Model Detail – Traffic Impacts

  13. Analysis Overview

  14. Corridor Planning

  15. Study Context • Updated General Plan and Transportation Plan • BUT no comprehensive analysis of high-frequency transit corridors • Need to identify future corridors for study on limited budget

  16. Study Context • Substantial existing transit service • Many providers • Many regional transit plans • Need to coordinate in space and time

  17. Limited Data • Ridership at route level • TAZ-level data • Population, HH, Employment • Future loaded highway network • Land use, environmental layers

  18. Two Phases • Identify corridors qualitatively • Quantitative corridor evaluation and prioritization

  19. Corridor Identification • Ridership -> Ridership per mile • Composite analysis (GIS exercise) • Collaborative effort with neighboring agencies & jurisdictions

  20. Corridor Evaluation • Existing productivity (riders/mi) • Employment and Household Densities • 2010 • 2040 • Regional Activity Centers • Network Connectivity • Rail stations • P&R • Inter-county connection • Priority corridor • Highway LOS • D, E, F

  21. Draft Evaluation

  22. Questions?

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