Climate Change Mitigation and Complexity

1. Climate Change Mitigation and Complexity Agus P SariCountry Director, Indonesia EcoSecurities

2. Ultimate Objective of the UNFCCC • “to achieve … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • “Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

3. Kyoto Protocol • Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the industrialized countries at 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2008 – 2012; • Quantitative emissions limitation and reduction commitments by industrialized countries; • EU, 8 % • US, 7 % (later on pulled out!) • Japan, 6 % • Russia and other ET, 0 % • Norway, Australia, and Iceland, increase by 1 %, 8 %, and 10 %, respectively. • Can be undertaken individually or jointly with other countries through “flexibility mechanisms”: • Emissions Trading; • Joint Implementation; • Clean Development Mechanism.

4. A “Shared Vision”?

5. Mitigation is notexpensive GDP GDP without mitigation 80% 77% GDP with stringent mitigation Time current ~1 year

6. Macro-economic costs in 2050 will be low [1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2050 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2050. [4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

7. The four “building blocks” of the Bali Roadmap Mitigation Adaptation Technology Finance

8. Second generation (cellulosic) biofuel. Second generation geothermal. Nuclear? Carbon Capture and Storage? R and D budgets Energy Renewable Energy

9. Market mechanism to reduce costs, transfer technologies, and foster sustainable development • Clean Development Mechanism. • European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. • Domestic permit trading (US, Australia). • Other trading mechanisms.

10. Restructuring and enhancement is necessary; Releasing regulatory limitations; Increasing regulatory capacity and responsibility; Increasing institutional cohesiveness; Enhancement of sectoral potential; Enhancement of regional distribution; Market mechanism gaining momentum Number of registered CDM projects overtime

11. Reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) Land use change and deforestation, mostly in developing countries, contribute15 – 20 percentof global emissions.Half of which from two countries only. Reducing deforestation means reducing emissions … And allowing developing countries to participate in mitigating climate change.

12. Implications for Indonesia - Australia • Policies and Measures • Indonesia and Australia are coal producers / exporters. • Nuclear technology may have wide bilateral implications. • Australia as technology provider. • Australia as investor. • Australia as buyers of carbon credits from Indonesia. • Australia as investor / buyer of REDD credits. • International Relations • Spheres: economics, political, security. • Agency: Governmental, private sector, civil society.