THE RETURN OF HISTORY? US/RUSSIAN RELATIONS

1. THE RETURN OF HISTORY? US/RUSSIAN RELATIONS Readings: Cox and Stokes CH 13, Carter CH 6, Beasley CH 5, King, Simes

2. Guiding Questions How can we classify US/Russian relations in the post Cold War era? What are the goals of Russian foreign policy? Do current tensions between the US and Russia suggest a return to the Cold War? Are we witnessing a “return to history”?

3. US/Russian Relations: Pre 9/11 • Initial domestic instability within the CIS worried NATO. Key aims included: • 1) Avoiding another Chernobyl • 2) Limiting nuclear proliferation. • 3) Russian entrance into the IMF. • 4) Support for Russian democracy. • Despite the rhetoric, US/Russian relations were in a position of benign neglect until 9/11.

4. US/Russian Relations: Post 9/11 • Given its location,Bush saw an opportunity to solidify Russian support in the fight against terror. • Personal relationship between Bush and Putin solidified by a shared view of terrorist threats. • High handed domestic politics in both countries led to a weaker emphasis on democratization in Russia. • Putin has pulled out of bilateral treaties and has suggested that Russia should re-assert themselves. • Orange Revolution, the fight over missile defense, further expansion of NATO, and the conflict in Georgia, dampened relations.

5. What Does Russia Want? STRUCTURAL FACTORS POLITICAL FACTORS • POWER • Geopolitically, lack of natural borders has made expansion critical. • Expansion provided access to resources necessary to stabilize domestic politics. • Militarily, nuclear weapons still make it a force of sorts. • INTERDEPENDENCE • Oil and natural gas deposits have been a source of tension; have used them to “punish” states that do not follow Russia dictates. • Economically, not a major power. • IDEAS • Soviet ideology critical for ‘greatness’ as the vanguard of an international revolution. • Restore Russian power and influence • Create a sphere or influence in the “near abroad” free from outside influence. • Political institutional autonomy built under Yeltsin hollowed out under Putin. • President had been the key player in foreign affairs. • Boosting the PM before Putin’s exit raises questions about this. • Legislature and Judiciary not terribly relevant. • Democracy should take a uniquely Russian flavor. • Many of the major players in Russian politics today were active in the previous regime. • Public opinion: Has been responsive to Putin’s calls to restore Russian influence. • Media: Not free. • Parties: Not independent.

6. Return of the Cold War? • Simes 2007 • Rhetoric and posturing between the US and Russia threaten to return to the Cold War era. • Would complicate relations with China. • Would boost stalemate at the United Nations • Who is to blame? • Both sides. • US: “Screwed up” post Communist aftermath by failing to emphasize the relationship. • Russia is not a defeated enemy; Reagan did not “win” the Cold War. • “Spinach treatment” created resentment. • Russia: Foreign policy assertiveness coupled with domestic crackdowns create distrust. • Encouraging Yeltsin to ignore the Duma set the stage for Putin’s authoritarianism. • Ignoring Russian opinion on Kosovo, NATO expansion, and Al Qaeda damaging. • ABM treaty withdrawal, US support for the Orange and Rose revolutions were the last straw.

7. Return of the Cold War? • King 2009 • Georgian conflict was not the start of a new Cold War. • Pattern of engagement then seclusion is nothing new. • Shows Russia no longer sees international institutions as in its interest. • West controls and manipulates the international system for their own benefit. • Other states also share this mindset.

8. How To Fix the Relationship? • Simes 2007 • US must show a renewed commitment to US-Russian relations. • Focus on shared interests: • 1) Counterterrorism • 2) Non Proliferation • 3) Iran • US should • 1) Make it clear that invading NATO members would be unacceptable. • 2) Make it clear that reforming the USSR is unacceptable. • 3) Using Russian law to seize foreign assets is damaging for relations. • 4) Place missile defenses in Czech Republic and Poland.

9. The Return of History? • Kagan 2007 • ‘End of history’ resonated in the 1990’s • China and Russia were appearing to shift towards democracy • International politics shows evidence of a ‘return to history” • There is no return to the traditional “Cold War” setting • US remains the dominant power within the international system and is likely to remain so • But power is returning to relevance in international politics • 1) Nations remain “strong” • 2) Unipolar world exists; but regional powers jockeying for position • 3) Struggle between liberalism vs. authoritarianism and modernity vs. traditionalism shaping global politics • US hegemony plays a critical role in ensuring that these new rivalries do not run rampant

10. Conclusions: US/Russia Relations • Putin contends “light switch” handling under Yeltsin as inappropriate to great power relations. • Many argue that the on again/off again relationship should be overhauled. • “Reset” by the Obama administration sought to improve this relationship • Obama’s relationship with Medvedev key; unclear if this will change after Putin returns to the presidency • Oil and natural gas have given the Russians the ability to exert greater leverage at the international level. • Russia has used international institutions and economic practices to balance the US. • Although cooperation over terrorism is still strong • Domestic political institutional instability complicates negotiations with the Russians. • Western style democracy, in the short term, appears to be a bridge too far.

11. Next Lecture • If You’re Interested… • Politkovskaya. Putin’s Russia • Kagan. The Return of History and the End of Dreams • Theme: New Challenges for US Foreign Policy-Hegemony and the Security Trap • Cox and Stokes CH 21 • Gelb (Foreign Affairs-May/June 2009) • Nye: (Foreign Affairs-November/December 2010)