Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) Center for Environmental Planning and Technology (CEPT)

1. Gujarat StudyARegional Experience of Accessing Socio Economic Impacts of natural disastersA Study for GSDMAby Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) Center for Environmental Planning and Technology (CEPT) Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai (IIT, Bombay) UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC)

2. Disasters and Economic Growth Trends in Gujarat • Though Gujarat is one of the most developed states of the country yet it is still much less than its potential. • The average annual compound growth rate of Gujarat • in 60’s - 3.32% per annum. • In 70’s - 4.95% per annum. • On this potential the rate of growth of Gujarat in eighties was projected to grow over at the rate of 6% per annum. • In 80’s - 4.26% actual only. • The major reason for not achieving its full potential in eighties was several repetitive natural disasters. Similarly, the average annual compound growth rate of GSDP increased to over 9.57% per annum between 1990-91 to 1997-98 - the highest in the country. • Gujarat couldn’t sustain the same pace in the late nineties again because of the several repetitive natural disasters.

3. Disasters in Gujarat

4. Drought Floods Drought Drought Drought Drought Floods Cyclone Floods Cyclone Earthquake Impact of Disasters on Economic Development

5. The Need to • Improve ability of Gujarat Government and local bodies - To estimate rehabilitation and reconstruction financial requirements and to mobilize grants and loans - To recover costs incurred in providing relief assistance • Improve ability for delivery of assistance to affected population based on scientifically-based damage and loss assessments; • Improve capacity to demonstrate the negative impacts of disasters on the economy and development of the State, and to argue the case for undertaking damage mitigation and vulnerability reduction (i.e. to advocate disaster-resilient development).

6. Hence The Need For A Comprehensive Methodology for Damage and Loss Assessment For Gujarat Commissioned by GSDMA under GEERP

7. Overview of the Study • Activity 1: Institutional Mechanisms and Training Needs for Damage and Loss Assessment • Activity 2: Improving Methodology for Damage Assessment • Activity 3: Developing Methodology for Loss Assessment • Activity 4:Capacity Building for Damage and Loss Assessment

8. Damage Assessment Methodology Primary focus is on condition of physical assets: • Buildings • Roads and Bridges • Water supply and sanitation structures • Dams and other irrigation structures • Industrial facilities (including power plants) • Ports and other coastal structures • Electrical and Communications system structures

9. Objectives of Damage Assessment • Short-Term: • To quickly identify the safety and usability of buildings, critical services structures and infrastructure • To quickly estimate total damage (for reporting and policy purposes) • Medium-Term (buildings only): • To assess status of doubtful category structures • To reassess and quantify damage categories • Long-Term: • To help develop rehabilitation/retrofitting procedures • To help identify deficiencies in technical knowledge and its implementation mechanisms

10. Key considerations for DA • Should be based on international sound-practices • Should consider the types of structures prevalent in local context • Should consider the technical skills likely to be available after a disaster • Should incorporate experiences from recent disasters • Consistent and Minimize ‘perception’ based qualitative assessments

11. Comparative damage categorization of International practices

12. 1.3 Comparative damage categorization of International practices Multiple methods are required to satisfy overlapping objectives

13. Proposed Methodology for DA of Buildings Three-Stage Damage Assessment Methodology proposed • Rapid Safety Assessment • Detailed damage categorization (S-0 to S-5, NS-A to NS-D) • Detailed Engineering Evaluation

14. Damage Assessment for Infrastructure • Some structures like Bridges and Storage Reservoirs are low redundancy structures – collapse may be sudden and catastrophic • Structural repairs are based on technically detailed evaluation – Method should be technically rigorous • Damage assessment likely to be carried out by technical persons from the responsible line departments

15. Loss Assessment Methodology • Presently no professionals available with most of department to undertake analysis on loss assessment. • For Loss Assessment Information is required on: Decreased output in the production sectors of agriculture, industry and commerce. Increased expenditure and decreased revenues in the revenue State Govt account and private enterprise providing basic services. Increased investments for rehabilitation and reconstruction in the State government development accounts. • Many State institutions and private enterprises do collect the basic data required to enable the estimation of losses but used for other purposes. Limited analysis done for estimating indirect losses.

16. The ECLAC Handbook for Disaster Assessment Gujarat Adaptation url://www.eclac.org/mexico

17. Proposed Loss Assessment Methodology Sector-by-Sector Loss Assessment • Productive Sectors • Industry • Trade and Commerce • Agro-based Industry and Commerce • ii. Social sectors • Housing • Health • Water Supply and Sanitation • Education • iii. Infrastructure • Electricity • Water Resources • Transport and Communications Macro-Economic Effects

18. D&LA in Agriculture Sector Existing Methodology – 2 stage assessment First Stage Assessment • Damage data based on “Eye estimates” • Estimates do not capture mid season agricultural adjustments • A review of crop damage assessment procedures is required Final Assessment • “Aanawari means an assessment of the observed and estimated crop out-turn of all crops a village as compared with an assumed standard.”

19. Proposed Methodology for Agriculture Sector Six-stage loss estimation – geared to facilitate mitigation measures

20. Reporting Format – Sample by dept/by sector

21. Institutionalizing D&LA Methodology • Standardization of formats for assessing and reporting damage so as to have a consistent representation of losses due to a given disaster • Capacity Building of key personnelin use of the standardized formats • Establishment of focal points in each line department for damage and loss assessment • Establishment of a base line inventory of assets in each department and updating annually

22. Institutionalizing D&LA Methodology.. • Creation and maintenance of departmental Databases of disasters and impacts • Computerized system for easy aggregation, dis-aggregation and historical analysis for decision making • Government orders for confirming additional responsibility for each focal point • Handbook in local language for Users

23. Capacity Building for D&LA • Sector-wise assessment teams pre-identified and trained • Teams to comprise of subject-experts from relevant departments • Volunteer network of private sector engineers to be established for Damage Assessment • Professionals of several disciplines – including, but not limited to, engineering and economics, at State and District levels, to receive special training in use of the loss assessment methodology

24. Thank You