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1 Colorado State University, 2 Pennsylvania State University, 3 Oak Ridge National Laboratories

Resolving CO 2 Flux Estimates from Atmospheric Inversions and Inventories in the Mid-Continent Region. 1 Colorado State University, 2 Pennsylvania State University, 3 Oak Ridge National Laboratories.

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1 Colorado State University, 2 Pennsylvania State University, 3 Oak Ridge National Laboratories

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  1. Resolving CO2 Flux Estimates from Atmospheric Inversions and Inventories in the Mid-Continent Region 1Colorado State University, 2Pennsylvania State University, 3Oak Ridge National Laboratories Stephen M. Ogle1, Andrew Schuh1, Dan Cooley1, Scott Denning1, Kenneth Davis2, Tristram West3, and F. Jay Breidt1 Other contributors: A. Andrews, K. Gurney, L. Heath, K. Paustian, P. Tans, A. Michalak, C. Potter, C. Tonitto, A. Jacobsen Data Support: Bob Cook (MAST-DC)

  2. Main Goal of MCI Synthesis • Compare and reconcile CO2 fluxes from inventories and atmospheric inversions, to the extent possible, and evaluate underlying mechanisms driving the fluxes Atmospheric Inversions CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 C C Inventories

  3. MCI Interim Synthesis • Initial comparisons of inversions and inventory with pre-MCI Campaign data from 2000-2005 • Benchmark for 2007-08 campaign • Analyze the underlying sources of difference between inversion and inventories • Expectations for 2007-08 Comparisons

  4. Regional Totals for CO2 Flux

  5. JENA Inversion • JENA Inversion • Large scale global inversion (4 degree x 5 degree pixels) • Uses hourly and flask (weekly) data • Prior constraints via `statistical flux model' setting spatial/temporal correlations and weighting Inversion results courtesy of : Christian Rödenbeck (MPI BCG)

  6. CarbonTracker Inversion • Carbon Tracker • Nested global inversion (22 global regions subset by 19 Olson ecosystem types) • Uses hourly and flask (weekly) data • Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to ‘scale’ a prior estimate of CASA NEE over these inversion regions on weekly timestep Inversion results courtesy of : Andy Jacobsen (NOAA)

  7. Correlation? - Inventory vs. Inversion JENA Inversion CarbonTracker Inversion

  8. Differences between Inversion and Inventory Red implies a larger sink in the inventory data and blue implies a larger sink in the inversion. JENA Inversion CarbonTracker Inversion

  9. Differences vs. Soil Carbon Change JENA Inversion CarbonTracker Inversion

  10. Difference vs. Harvest Carbon JENA Inversion CarbonTracker Inversion

  11. Pre-Campaign Observations

  12. MCI Campaign Observations

  13. Expectation for 2007-08 Synthesis • Expectation: More observations will allow inversions to capture the apparent sink associated with the harvest C signal in MCI • Higher resolution REGIONAL inversions! • Alternative: The inventory does not accurately represent the CO2 fluxes in the region and the apparent sink • Further evaluate lateral transport out of region • Improve ability of inventories to capture weather related impacts on CO2 fluxes

  14. Ongoing Research • Reconcile inversions and inventories, providing estimates and uncertainties • Further testing with the inversions using inventory data as priors • Re-evaluate underlying mechanisms driving CO2 flux in region

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