1 / 27

Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc

Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc. March 2010. Contents. State of Qatar Macroeconomic Overview Page 3-8 Investment Case Page 9 Doha Securities Market (DSM) Current Sectoral Breakdown Page 11 Increasing Market Depth Page 12 Earnings Growth Page 13 Valuation Page 14-16

oprah
Download Presentation

Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc March 2010

  2. Contents State of Qatar Macroeconomic Overview Page 3-8 Investment Case Page 9 Doha Securities Market (DSM) Current Sectoral Breakdown Page 11 Increasing Market Depth Page 12 Earnings Growth Page 13 Valuation Page 14-16 Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc (the “Company”) Company Description Page 18 Investment Methodology & Guidelines Page 19 Sectoral Exposure Page 20 Investment Status Page 21-22 Summary Page 23-24 Conclusion Page 25 Page 2

  3. Macroeconomic Overview LNG exports forecast to grow to 76.4 mtpa by 2011 • Third largest proven gas reserves (15% of world’s total) • LNG contracts are long term (typically 25 years) • Substantially increasing and diversifying energy exports • Real GDP expected to surge 18.5% in 2010 due to higher LNG production and subdued inflation Oil production capacity to reach 1.1 mln bpd by 2010 Certainty of cash flows due to increasing gas sales Attractive Demographics • Rising population; CAGR 11% population growth for last 10 yrs • Population increased to 1.6 mln at the end of January 2010. Expansionary Budget • Historically high govt. spending on education, health, infrastructure and real estate sectors • Surpluses generated by high commodity prices are being redeployed to develop non hydrocarbon sectors. • The state encourages private sector and non oil economy growth through privatization , outsourcing of public services and development of industrial zones. • Rapid growth in services, utilities, industry and real estate. • Government emphasized importance of non oil & gas projects such as QFC, Education City and Qatar Science & Technology Park Forecasts are taken from QNB’s Qatar Economic Review 2009

  4. Macroeconomic Overview Strong GDP growth supported by the non hydrocarbon sector Source: QNB capital, Qatar Statistics Authority,QIC * Preliminary ,** QNB Capital forecast Qatar’s Real GDP growth expected to continue at a healthy pace Source: IMF, IIF, National Accounts, Samba

  5. Macroeconomic Overview Importance of Natural Gas Source: QIC, Qatar Statistics Authority Capital expenditure program to continue Source: QIC,QNB

  6. Macroeconomic Overview Strong fundamentals provide protection from the current global economic downturn Substantial hydrocarbon assets • Qatar’s natural gas reserves are the world’s third largest to-date, behind those of Russia and Iran. • Qatar’s North Gas Field, discovered in 1971, is the largest non-associated gas field in the world, with proven reserves currently estimated at over 902 trillion cubic feet (tcf). • In oil terms, by 2011 Qatar would be on par with Iran as the second-largest regional producer behind Saudi Arabia, and would be the fourth-largest producer in the world behind Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US. • Qatar’s oil reserves as at December 2008 stood at 25.9 billion barrels. Infrastructure spend • QP’s new five-year plan (2009 - 2013) budgeted an overall QR145.9 billion for projects in crude oil, natural gas, gas-to-liquids, refining, petrochemicals, industrial cities and others. • Zawya.com estimates that the total of outstanding projects in Qatar currently is c.USD220 billion. • Government committed to the infrastructure projects. Growing population • According to the 2008 survey, Qatar’s population reached 1,552,820 increasing by 108.7% from the 2004 census of 744,029. • As on 28th February 2010 Qatar population stood at 1,679,110 . Low leverage • Low leverage in the economy; Total estimated indebtedness of External debt (government) is only 12.5% of Qatar’s total nominal GDP in 2009. • Qatar stands among the highest rated GCC countries.

  7. Macroeconomic Overview • Proactive Government • The authorities’ preemptive intervention in the banking sector was large. Official intervention in 2009 reached about 6½ percent of GDP*. • During the current global financial crisis the Qatari government has taken proactive measures to reduce the impact within the local economy including: • Initiated several consolidations of the listed and unlisted companies to ensure the competitiveness of various enterprises operating within Qatar. • Announced confidence building measures through the budgetary process. Source: IMF

  8. Macroeconomic Overview Qatar LNG story • World’s largest exporter of LNG. • Qatar has over 100 years of proven gas reserve at projected long-term production levels. • Qatar’s LNG sales are derived from long-term sale and purchase agreements which provide certainty of volume off take. • Most of Qatar’s exports are destined for growing markets. • By 2011, Qatar will have nearly doubled its liquefaction capacity relative to 2008 levels, to 77.6 mmtpa.

  9. Investment Case

  10. Doha Securities Market (DSM)

  11. DSM 20: Current Sectoral Breakdown • The DSM20 index is the local benchmark, and is made up of 20 stocks • Listed companies are divided broadly into four sectors: Banking and Investment, Insurance, Industrial and Services. • 5 largest companies (Qatar National Bank, Industries Qatar, Commercial Bank of Qatar ,Qatar Islamic Bank and Nakilat) constitute 62.15% of the DSM20 Index. • Banking and Investment sector constitute 61.2% of the index Source: Reuters

  12. DSM: Increasing Market Depth • The Qatar Government actively encourages companies to list on the DSM and is promoting an increasingly robust regulatory environment. • Currently 44 companies listed on Qatar Exchange. • Some consolidation expected in the market during 2010. • Vodafone Qatar, Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. listed in Qatar Exchange in 2009. • Since inception the market capitalization has risen from QR 9.4 Bln in 1997 ($2.5bn) to QR 320 Bln ($88bn) at the end of 2009. Source: DSM,QIC

  13. DSM: Earnings Growth • Robust GDP growth during the period translated into strong earning growth across the sectors. • The growing population base is boosting demand for new residential and commercial projects, for personal credit, and increasing personal consumption. • Qatar's rapid economic growth continues to drive corporate revenues and profits. • Banking sector full year 2009 net profit growth was flat (-0.1%) Source: DSM, QIC

  14. DSM: Valuation Compelling Valuation • According to IMF, Qatar is expected to be fastest growing economy in the world in 2010. • Considering Qatar’s growth prospects and compared to the valuations of other world stock markets, we consider the Qatari stock market to offer good value. • The recent sell-off across the GCC markets by investors has left valuations at extremely compelling levels.

  15. DSM: Valuation The case for near-term outperformance • Arabian Markets is still one of the cheapest regions in EM relative to ROE,trading at a 8% discount on 2010 P/B but with 100bps higher forecast 2010 ROE. • The historical positive correlation with oil prices should start to re-assert once the region’s distinctive risks abate. • Domestic liquidity trends are re-accelerating. • Acceleration in the year-on-year change in oil prices could be another trigger. • Company earnings are surprising on the upside. • Current mispricing at the stock level offers long-term investors opportunities. • We think some catch-up is overdue... Underperformance, the higher oil price, better valuations (especially dividend yield), and subsiding macro risks all suggest the potential for better relative performance in the coming months.

  16. DSM: Valuation MENA equities have underperformed EM dramatically over the past year. The rebound in the oil price suggests MENA markets should be doing better.

  17. Epicure Qatar Equity Opportunities plc

  18. EQEO: Company Description EQEO was established: • To capitalise on attractive equity investment opportunities in Qatar. • To harness the 20 year investment track record of QIC, the Company’s Investment Adviser. • Total equity capital raised of US$ 256 Million. *Return as of November 8th 2007

  19. EQEO: Investment Methodology & Guidelines • The Company primarily invests in quoted Qatari equities: up to 15% may be allocated in regional (GCC) stock markets. • The Company applies a top-down screening process to identify those sectors which should most benefit from Sectoral growth trends. • Fundamental industry and company analysis, rather than benchmarking, form the basis of both stock selection and portfolio construction. • The Company expects to hold positions for the long-term and thus have limited turnover. • The Company does not make use of any hedging mechanism or derivative instruments. • The Company has borrowings limited to 5% of its NAV. • No single investment to exceed 15% of Company’s NAV. • No holding to exceed 5% of the issued share capital of any one company.

  20. EQEO: Sectoral Exposure • EQEO’s portfolio is actively managed and does not seek to replicate the DSM 20 or any other index due to the restrictions of the investment guidelines. • Currently the main difference between the Company’s sector allocation and the DSM’s are: • Banking and Investments: the company is invested in Six banking stocks in Qatar and three in regional markets. • Services sector: Invested in companies which do not form part of the index. Source: QIC, Reuters EQEO Data as of 31th December 2009

  21. EQEO: Investment Status We integrate top-down sector allocation with bottom-up stock selection We believe pricing anomalies exist and can be exploited Actively managed portfolio based on fundamentals Currently EQEO portfolio PE is 10.3x 2009 earnings * As of 31st December 2009

  22. The Company is currently 99.2% invested* Currently, the Company is invested in 19 companies in Qatar, four companies in UAE, and one company in Kuwait. The top five companies constitute 58% of the Company’s NAV EQEO: Investment Status Top Five investments * As of 31st December 2009

  23. EQEO: Summary EQEO Performance Summary EQEO Weekly NAV Source: QIC, Reuters Page 23

  24. EQEO: Summary EQEO trades discount to NAV Regional market performance Source: QIC, Reuters Page 24

  25. EQEO: Conclusion • Macroeconomic outlook is positive for Qatar. • Market structure, depth, liquidity and regulatory environment are improving. • Valuation and earnings outlook remain compelling. • The Company is well-positioned to benefit from all these positive trends. Page 25

  26. Disclaimer By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following limitations: THIS DOCUMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL AND IS BEING SUPPLIED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, FURTHER DISTRIBUTED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE. This document does not form part of any offer of securities, or constitute a solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for securities. Its content may not be suitable for U.S. persons. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. The contents of this document have not been verified. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document and no reliance should be placed on such information or opinions. None of the Company, Epicure Managers Qatar Ltd, the Qatar Insurance Company or any of their respective members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of such information or opinions. The information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal, or investment advice and may not be suitable for your specific circumstances; accordingly, you should consult your own tax, legal, investment, or other advisors, at both the outset of any transaction and on an ongoing basis, to determine such suitability. Any investment returns, past, historical, or otherwise, are not indicative of future performance. Forecasted information is based on a number of bases of assumptions none of which may materialise. There can be no guarantee that the Company will attain its investment objective. The information presented in this document is subject to change without notice.

  27. Jubilee Buildings Victoria Street Douglas Isle of Man IM1 2SH www.epicure-qatarequity.com

More Related