Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience

1. Tools and Analysis to Support Freight System Resilience Transportation Logistics Spring 2009

2. Why Resilience? • Supply chains leaner and longer • Sense that disruptions are or will become, more common • Significant economic consequences from disruptions • A complex problem

3. Complexity • Enterprises are dynamic actors • Economics are not well documented and vary by organization • Multitude of events and consequences • External disruptions outside the purview of transportation • Consequences depend on actions • Existing economic models poorly suited

4. System Elements

6. Measuring the Disruption

7. Temporal Component • Mitigation • Preparedness • Response • Recovery

10. Agenda • Enterprise behavior • Infrastructure connectivity and flow • Washington Potatoes

11. WSDOT Phase 1 Recommendations • Identify and Segment Customers of the Transportation System • Identify and quantify the objective of a FSR Plan for this region • Conduct a vulnerability assessment of the region’s transportation network • Create public/private collaboration mechanisms • Determine what regulatory and policy procedures need to be put into place • Agree on priority and trigger setting processes • Conduct a small-scale in-house simulation • Test the plan with a large scale simulation

12. Enterprise Behavior • As users of the system enterprises also contribute to system performance • Better enterprise planning creates better outcomes • Understanding enterprise behavior allows us to understand the current behavior and triggers

13. Types of Disruptions • Supply • Demand • Administrative • Resource availability • Transportation

15. Summary • Response to transportation disruption correlated with level of other risks inherent in supply chain • Tactics decrease efficiency and competitiveness outside of disrupted periods • Operational and communications solutions offer benefit in most cases

16. Infrastructure

17. GIS Tool Development • Intermodal layer for each mode and terminal type • Cost functions to capture “cost” of flow along a link • Logic to ensure connectivity and capture capacity constraints • Can measure transportation impacts of capacity reductions and closures using scenario analysis

18. Complexity of Movements

19. Case Studies • WA Potatoes • Fresh and processed • Fresh to market • Estimate consequences of 24 hour closure of I-90 • WA Fuel • Terminal racks to diesel stations • Identify infrastructure weaknesses and dependencies • Identify priority access routes

20. Goals • Estimate the truck trips per day within the state of Washington that are necessary to move potatoes between production locations, processing facilities, and consumption locations. • Consider a disruption to the transportation network, and identify the impact on these truck trips.

21. Motivation for the Potato Case Study • Exercise the GIS tool • Identify the level of effort and data collection challenges of this approach to understanding the impacts from disruptions • Understand the movements of potatoes in the state

22. Potato Data Elements • Potato prices at field, retailer purchase price, and retail price • Origins and destinations for potatoes and potato products • Volumes of potatoes for each origin and destination for all potato products • Quantity of potato loss • Ratios of fresh potatoes to potato products • Percentage of potatoes processed into each product in each growing region • Volume of potatoes held in a truckload for each product • Location and type of potato processors • Mode split • Exit points for potatoes destined for locations outside the state

23. Data Sources • AC Neilson • United States Department of Agriculture • Market News • National Agriculture Statistics • Washington State Potato Commission/WSU Survey • Discussions with ConAgra Foods/Lamb Weston • State of Washington Potato Committee (SWPC): Disposition

25. Comments on potato production • Modeled potato production as 3 regions, all trips originate in centroids of these regions • 94% capture rate

30. Potato Truck Trips • Under normal conditions potato trucks generate just over 11,000 truck miles each day

31. Disruption • Close the Cascade mountain passes on I-90, Highway 2, and Highway 12 for one day to replicate the impact of a severe winter storm. • SR410 and Highway 20 are closed seasonally. • Re-route the potato trucks to the next shortest path between their origin and destination. • 20% of all truck trips cross the Cascades.

33. Eastbound favors fresh and northern routes I90 carries most traffic Westbound traffic 70% frozen

34. All rerouted onto SR14 Impacts 50 trucks per day, 45 westbound and 5eastbound Total truck-milesincrease to about21,000 miles per day, an increaseof 78% Greatest impactto frozen potatoestraveling to Westernmarkets

35. Estimated value of a truckload

36. Economic Implications • Direct Costs • Driver wages, fuel consumption, vehicle operating costs • $13,722 to $32,018 per day or $275 to $640 dollars per truck • Indirect Costs • Missed business opportunities, spoiled products, extra transportation costs