Economic Density: A New Perspective of Regional Economic Study in China 经济密度：中国区域经济研究的新视角

1. CGA seminar series - GIS applications in China Studies Economic Density: A New Perspective of Regional Economic Study in China经济密度：中国区域经济研究的新视角 Xin LAO 劳昕 Doctoral candidate: Peking University Visiting Fellow: CGA, Harvard University

2. Outline • Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions

3. Outline • Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions

4. Background • Density, distance and division are three key factors of global regional economy development (World Bank Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography) • Economic (Activity) Density: The economic development level and economic agglomeration degree per unit area

5. Outline • Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions

6. Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study 研究维度 Indicators Variables and indicators depicting the economic density Density Model 密度模型 Origin: Clark(1951) Theoretical foundation Monocentric & polycentric Urban & regional 研究尺度 Scales Spatial scale of research: region, city, community 演化机制 Empirical Research of Economic Density Theoretical Research of Economic Density Mechanism 研究时段 Time-series Periods of time: evolution process Reveal evolution reasons 影响效应 Impacts 研究方法 Methods Econometrics, GIS, Spatial Statistics, ESDA Influence on productivity Further research needed 理论研究 实证研究

7. Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study Macro driving force Economic growth Coordination mechanism Market government Industrial structure change Median driving force Micro driving force Factor flow (labor, capital and technology) Endogenous driving force: urbanization Economic density growth Mechanism

8. Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study Indicators

9. Methodology: study area • Study area: Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta—most developed and main employment agglomeration regions in China • Indicator: Employment Density • Scale: County Level • Time-series: 2004 and 2008 • Methods: Kriging Interpolation, Kernel Density Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis, Employment Mean Center and Standard Deviation Ellipse • Data: Employment data from the first and second national economic census (2004 and 2008) 全国第一、二次经济普查数据

10. Outline • Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions

11. Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China Multi-centralized 多中心化 Coast-oriented 沿海化 Axis-oriented 轴线化 10%area(20km from the coast) 55%employment Empirical Research: Indicators

12. Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China Gradient distribution 梯度格局 Province 省级 Prefecture 地级 County 区县级 Empirical Research: Scales

13. Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China Employment mean center 就业重心 2004—2008: Polarized effects 极化效应 Standard deviation ellipse 标准离差椭圆 Empirical Research: Time-series

14. Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA

15. Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China Empirical Research: Methods—ESDA

16. Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Kriging Interpolation 2004 2008 2004 2008 Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Employment Density Spatial Features (Employment Distribution Pattern)

17. Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Kernel Density Analysis 2004 2008 2004 2008 Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Employment Density Spatial Features (Employment Center Structure)

18. Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta 2004 2008 2004 2008 Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends (Spatial Autocorrelation)

19. Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends（Employment Mean Center Movement and Dispersion Tendency）

20. Outline • Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions

21. Conclusions (1) Regional economic patterns in China • Economic density spatial features 空间特征 • Gradient distribution 梯度格局 • Multi-centralized 多中心化 • Coast-oriented 沿海化 • Axis-oriented 轴线化 • Economic density evolution 演化特征 Agglomeration Effect 集聚效应

22. Conclusions (2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River Delta • Similarity • Employment density cores are mainly located in big cities along the delta coasts就业密度核心区均集中在三角洲沿岸的重要城市 • Employment density distribution decreased outward from the core area to the fringe由核心区往外就业密度分布呈圏层结构递减 • Difference • Yangtze River Delta—Monocentric Diffusion 单中心扩散 • Pearl River Delta—Polycentric Agglomeration 多中心集聚

23. Conclusions (2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River Delta • Employment center structure • Yangtze——Government-oriented 政府主导 • Pearl——Market-oriented 市场主导 • Influence scope of core employment area • Yangtze——Location merit and regional integration strategy 区位优势和区域一体化政策 • Pearl——Highly concentrated economic distribution nearby Hong Kong 临近香港的高度集中的经济空间格局

24. Thanks!Questions and comments are welcome! Xin LAO xinlao@fas.harvard.edu