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Offshore Wind Power

Offshore Wind Power. Willett Kempton Center for Carbon-free Power Integration College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment University of Delaware UD Energy Workshop 26 April 2010. Offshore Class Machines. RePower 5M (shown), installed in 45 m of water Vestas V90-3.0 (2 years in production)

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Offshore Wind Power

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  1. Offshore Wind Power • Willett Kempton • Center for Carbon-free Power Integration • College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment • University of Delaware • UD Energy Workshop • 26 April 2010

  2. Offshore Class Machines • RePower 5M (shown), installed in 45 m of water • Vestas V90-3.0 (2 years in production) • Siemens 3.6 MW (but 50 Hz) • Clipper 10 MW (produce in UK, 2009) • GE 3.6s (3+ years in water, not in production)

  3. Tower enables depth range, thus resource • Land-based, monopile, jacket, spar buoy

  4. Art: NY Times Magazine

  5. US Developments Proposed

  6. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  7. MISO Joint Coordinated System Plan

  8. Wind power beyond the coast? • No airport meteorological towers • Many wind maps stop at the coast • How to measure? • (Met buoys and satellite-QuikSCAT)

  9. QuikSCAT Met. buoy vs Image credit: Brazilian Navy Image credit: NASA Pimenta, Kempton and Garvine (2008)

  10. Estimating turbine production Power curve of REpower 5M Image: Repower Systems AG

  11. QuikSCAT turbine output 1999-2008 RE 5M Image: Repower Systems AG kWa

  12. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  13. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  14. Power Units • 1 Watt = an iPod playing • 100 Watt = light bulb • ~1 kWa (1,000 Watt) = a house (a=average) • ~5 MW (5,000 kW) = wind turbine capacity • ~2 MWa = wind turbine, average output • ~1 GWa (1,000 MW) = Delaware • 73 GWa = the mid-Atlantic (MA to NC) • 450 GWa = the United States

  15. Large resource on Mid-Atlantic • Examine resource of entire Mid-Atlantic • Vs. load

  16. Needs vs. Resource

  17. Needs vs. Resource All of electricity, cars and heating uses 2/3 of the wind resource, dropping regional CO2 by 68%.

  18. Drill, Baby, drill? • How much oil in the entire Atlantic OCS? • Compare delivered energy from Atlantic • Offshore wind 330,000 MWa • OCS oil 18,000 MWa (during 20 years) • Wind > 18 times oil ! from: Kempton et al Geophysical Research Letters 2007

  19. Reduce oil imports? • One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa) • Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa • Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years • Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....

  20. Reduce oil imports? • One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa) • Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa • Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years • Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....

  21. Reduce oil imports? • One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa) • Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa • Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years • Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars.... forever

  22. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  23. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  24. Context-free price comparisons are nonsense • Electricity prices are REGIONAL • Wind price depends on local conditions--wind speed, topography, etc • Must compare wind price at site to the local market price • ... Makes no sense to price “wind” versus fossil -- nor on-land wind versus offshore

  25. High Electric Rates on Coast ●Congestion raises prices all along Mid-Atlantic coast (map shows PJM East). ●Limited generation andtransmission causes congestion. ● Generation offshore would address both problems. Note: Map information is based on PJM data for a single day at peak demand 2 Source: Conectiv Energy

  26. What about Price for the Delaware case? • In Delaware, the local utility is buying dirty power at 11 ¢/kWh • A 450 MW size, offshore wind contract came in at 9.9¢/kWh • (It doesn’t matter what electricity costs elsewhere) • And, significant costs are going on other parties' ledgers ...

  27. But don’t get me started on Price! • Delaware: 25-years of payments for electricity (450 MW, @ 2.5% discount rate) • Investment ~ $1B to $1.6B • Total payments sum $3.6 billion • Two years arguing whether <5% over or under “market” (± $180 million) • Health benefit of project was $1 B NPV • But PSC couldn’t consider this, required to evaluate electric price only

  28. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  29. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  30. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  31. You can't make that many wind turbines! • 108 GWa supplies all electric plus all cars • Assume that each wind turbine is 5 MW nameplate at 40% CF, so 2 MWa average output • Requires 54,000 wind turbines for mid-Atlantic • Can we do this in 50 years? • Have we ever done this before?

  32. B-24E (Liberator), 1942

  33. WW II Aircraft Production(1,000s) And that’s not to mention all the tanks, ships & guns! 54,000 for East Coast by year 4

  34. How would we actually build those turbines? • A WWII production effort would do it in four years. • But what if we don’t have a WWII (politically)? • How many factories are needed? • How fast to build without WWII urgency? Rosie the Riveter Poster by J. Howard Miller

  35. How many factories? • One factory, five days/week, three shifts-- roughly 350 turbines/year. • Assume similar rate for towers, blades • How long to make 54,000 turbines? • One factory takes 154 years, e.g., way too late for climate change • To build 54,000 in 30 years takes 5 factories; in 15 years, 10 factories • So, need 5-10 manufacturing complexes, depending on desired speed of CO2 cuts

  36. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  37. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  38. Transmission N-S on Shelf • Weather data from each station S1 - S11 • Transmission "pools" power • How much smoothing of output?

  39. Transmission N-S on Shelf • Weather data from each station S1 - S11 • Transmission "pools" power • How much smoothing of output?

  40. Individual simulated wind farms, such as S2, S10 show frequent, rapid fluctuation in output • Power from combined grid changes more slowly, rarely reaches min or max power • Easier to manage, higher value

  41. Single stations have many high or zero values • Combined grid clusters around mid-range values

  42. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  43. The conventional Wisdom on Energy • US wind Mainly in the Plains • All renewables are small • Renewable energy is expensive • Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time • Wind is intermittent

  44. END • More information: • www.carbonfree.udel.edu • Thanks to: • Delaware Sea Grant • Delaware Green Energy Fund • College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware

  45. PV FERC Office of Enforcement, Increasing Costs in Electric Markets, Item No.: A-3, June 19, 2008

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