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Inequality, Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Asia

Inequality, Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Asia. Comments to the chapters 5 and 6 by Donghyn Park Oxana Sinyavskaya, Deputy Director of the Institute for Social Policy, HSE. Focus of the chapter:

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Inequality, Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Asia

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  1. Inequality, Fiscal Policy and Inclusive Growth in Asia Comments to the chapters 5 and 6 by Donghyn Park Oxana Sinyavskaya, Deputy Director of the Institute for Social Policy, HSE

  2. Focus of the chapter: • 5: how improve tax administration in order to overcome the middle income trap and support inclusive growth in Asia? • 6: a broad range of measures of fiscal policy to promote both more equity and economic growth • How to achieve quality of economic growth (“how the region is growing”) / inclusive growth under the conditions of middle-income development and extreme and raising inequality? • Still need to grow faster than developed countries + keep fiscal sustainability + reduce inequality

  3. My feedback with relation to my experience in social policy and Russia • Russia: • The research of my colleagues (Popova et al) in the Institute for Social Policy confirms that Russian tax-benefit & social transfers system reduces poverty rate by half and inequality level by one third – not efficient by international standards • Almost all of redistribution in Russia – at the expense of pensions • Changes in tax and social policy of 2010-2017 contributed mostly to the middle income groups • Modelling of “tax maneure” of reducing social security contributions and increasing VAT – increase inequality and budget losses

  4. International trends in social policy • Population ageing AND technological revolution undermines the stability of 20th century welfare state model based on social insurance because the base for social security contributions is shrinking • New solutions – how to expand both base for financing social expenditures and social protection to everybody AND not to undermine economic growth •  Social investment state with particular focus on public education and health care

  5. The outcomes of higher public spending on health care and education • Reduction of inequality • Early investment in education – improve human capital of future generations and promote social mobility (Heckman and many other scholars) + better productivity • Higher investment in health care – longer lives • But and important issue – acknowledged in the chapter 6 – is improving quality of public education and health care services

  6. What can be important to our region • Improving tax administration as a source of improving tax revenues and decreasing informal employment – might be not so important in Russia and CIS as in Asia • But: • Fiscal reform instead of fiscal expansion! • More attention to public education and health care • And – the outcomes of corruption: • Business is not interested in spending more on social purposes • People do not believe in a lack of money and reject any reforms, a lack of trust

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