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Operational Verification in Greece

Operational Verification in Greece. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Offenbach 2009. Verification activities concentrated on……. COSMOGR version 4.3. The red grid is used in the operational version of COSMOGR (~7km). The model output of ~7km around the Eastern Mediterranean is used as

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Operational Verification in Greece

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  1. Operational Verification in Greece WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Offenbach 2009

  2. Verification activities concentrated on……

  3. COSMOGR version 4.3 The red grid is used in the operational version of COSMOGR (~7km). The model output of ~7km around the Eastern Mediterranean is used as input for the ~2.5km grid covering Greece (blue)

  4. autumn winter 2m Temperature spring summer

  5. autumn winter Dew Point Temperature summer spring

  6. autumn winter M S L Pressure summer spring

  7. autumn winter 10m Wind Speed spring summer

  8. autumn winter 10m Wind Direction spring summer

  9. autumn winter winter Total Cloud Cover spring summer

  10. v. 4.0 2007 v. 4.2 v. 4.3 2008 Temperature 2m: RMSE - Monthly averages 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  11. v. 4.0 2007 v. 4.3 v. 4.2 2008 2009 Wind Speed 10m: RMSE - Monthly averages Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

  12. Local models vs. driving model

  13. autumn winter 6h ETS - range: -1/3 to 1, ps=1 fraction of observed and/or forecast events correctly predicted, adjusted for hits associated with random chance spring summer

  14. winter autumn 12h ETS - range: -1/3 to 1, ps=1 fraction of observed and/or forecast events correctly predicted, adjusted for hits associated with random chance spring summer

  15. autumn winter 24h ETS - range: -1/3 to 1, ps=1 fraction of observed and/or forecast events correctly predicted, adjusted for hits associated with random chance summer spring

  16. winter autumn winter winter 6h FBI - range: 0 to ∞, unbiased score=1 Indicates tendency to underforecast (BIAS<1) or overforecast (BIAS>1) events. summer spring

  17. autumn winter 12h FBI - range: 0 to ∞, unbiased score=1 Indicates tendency to underforecast (BIAS<1) or overforecast (BIAS>1) events. spring summer

  18. winter autumn 24h FBI - range: 0 to ∞, unbiased score=1 Indicates tendency to underforecast (BIAS<1) or overforecast (BIAS>1) events. spring summer

  19. Kalman filtering is applied operationally, to NWPs at the nearest model location: • 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecasts, and • 10m maximum wind speed COSMO forecasts (still at a pilot stage). • Statistical analysis of maximum and minimum values of these parameters (both modeled and filtered) Post-processed products verification

  20. Verification of Forecasts

  21. Verification of forecasts (1) • Quality control is performed by NFC for both routine forecasts and specific warnings • Emphasis is put on special cases e.g. extreme weather (MeteoAlarm definition) or large deviations. The verification of temperature, wind and precipitation forecasts is based on: • HNMS station network • Information collected from other bodies’ networks (e.g. NOA, Ministry of Agriculture, etc.) • Media • Data collected from Buoy Network of Hellenic Centre for Marine Research

  22. Verification of forecasts (2) For temperature: BIAS (± 2οC) Target: 80% For precipitation: • Precision (P) is the number of successful forecasts for the specific phenomenon out of the total forecasts for the same phenomenon. • Recall (R) is the number of successful forecasts for the specific phenomenon out of the total number of days that the specific phenomenon took place. • Fall-Out is the number of the unsuccessful forecasts for the specific phenomenon out of the total number of days that this phenomenon did not take place. • F-measure is the weighted harmonic mean of Precision (P) and Recall (R) and defined:

  23. Precision 82% Recall-C 82% Recall-P 100% F0,8 = 82%(80%) Thessaloniki Precipitation April 2009

  24. Future activities related to Versus • Adoption of BUFR format for all the observations (coming from various observational networks) • Insertion and verification of the outputs from all NWP models in VERSUS database including COSMOGR 2.5km • Use of the various features of VERSUS such as conditional verification, stratification of stations, upper air verification and comparison with existing software/methodology.

  25. Thank you for your attention!

  26. Additional slides

  27. Local models vs. driving model

  28. autumn winter 6h POD - range: 0 to 1, Perfect score=1 Proportion of observed events correctly forecasted spring summer

  29. 12h POD - range: 0 to 1, Perfect score=1 Proportion of observed events correctly forecasted

  30. autumn winter 24h POD - range: 0 to 1, perfect score=1 Proportion of observed events correctly forecasted spring summer

  31. Impressions by the use of 2.5km 7km 2.5km COSMO: Wind10m

  32. COSMO: Total Preci 2.5km 7km

  33. Εμφάνιση ορογραφικών φαινομένων στη ξηρά. Ποτέ δεν παρουσιάζεται σοβαρή ενίσχυση ανέμου στο COSMO των 7km 2.5km 7km

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