Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

1. EC4MACSEuropean Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate StrategiesUpdate Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2. Contents • EC4MACS background • EC4MACS workplan • EC4MACS recent achievements and next steps • EC4MACS – NIAM • NEC Directive review update

3. Background • The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a review and revisions of their air quality legislation and the European Climate Change Programme. Model analyses can make useful contributions for these reviews. • The consistency of EU policies in different fields are of increasing concern. • EC4MACS provides institutional funding to a consortium of key modelling teams to have modelling tools technically ready and accepted by stakeholders for policy applications.

4. Objectives • Providing scientific and economic analyes for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) • Improvement of existing models by including recent scientific findings. • Update of input data • Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by stakeholders • Make modelling tools available to the public over the Internet.

5. Partners • IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment • MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts • NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections • Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections • LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling • Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic benefit analysis • (MET.NO (NO) – Modelling of atmospheric chemistry and transport) • JRC-Ispra • JRC-Sevilla

6. The EC4MACS model system Global/hemispheric boundary conditions European policy drivers Cost-effectiveness Impacts Transport TREMOVE Energy POLES PRIMES GAINS GEM-E3 Agriculture CAPRI EU-FASOM, DNDC Land use CCE-CL Ecosystems BENEFITS Atmosphere TM5 EMEP

7. General work plan • 2007: • Methodological improvements • 2008: • Data collection • Feedbacks on methodological improvements • 2009 • Interim assessment • Methodology workshop • 2010 • Uncertainty assessment • Bilateral consultations on input data • Stakeholder workshop on baseline projections • 2011 • Final assessment

8. Recent achievements - GAINS • Interface with PRIMES, numerous scenarios have been exchanged for the Commission’s burden sharing proposal, the CCS study and the NEC revision (including the PRIMES 2007 baseline scenario) • GAINS provided cost curves for non-CO2 gases for the January 2008 Climate and Energy Package of the Commission, and assessed co-benefits on air pollution • Optimization analyses for the NEC revision based on the burden sharing energy projection. Commission will use this for NEC proposal in June 2008

9. Achievements for EC4MACS • Database, policy representation, parameterisationupdated for EU27 + Western Balkan + Turkey • Improved description of N Cycle inherited from earlier projects (Ammonia, JRC-Ispra collaboration) • Prepared for modelling of biofuels demand shocks, but • No trade in fuels (ethanol, bio-diesel) • Shares of feed stocks + demand shock exogenous • Update of international database is under way • Need to update FAOSTAT1 with FAOSTAT2 + AGLINK

10. DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES Full update of the model database Energy balances statistics, energy prices and taxes, economic activity statistics New plant level data for the power plants Similar data collection took place for other sectors Information about current policies and measures Update of the technological and economic projections about the future evolution of new energy technologies in all domains Update of resources and renewable potential information disaggregated per source and Member State Including data on possibilities for CO2 geological storage November 19

11. DEVELOPMENTS IN 2007 - PRIMES New Baseline scenario constructed Very important as it is considered as a reference projection against which all alternative policy projections are compared to in order to draw impact assessment conclusions Model calibration to reproduce years 2000 and 2005 The final Baseline was ready by the end of Nov 2007 Detailed report will be available by the end of April 2008 The new Baseline has been extensively used to analyze the effects of the announced Commission targets for 2020 Improved interface of PRIMES and GAINS models November 19

12. GHG balance of rapeseed cultivation kg CO2-eq ha-1

13. Tasks for 2008 • Produce interim documentation on methodologies • Start consultation on methodology over the Internet • Harmonize C/N cycle and agricultural modelling approaches • Link to global scale (with JRCs)

14. AN OUTLOOK INTO 2008 ACTIVITIES - PRIMES Evaluation of alternative policy assumptions on the evolution of the energy system The detailed definition of scenarios will be decided in close interaction with DG-ENV and the EC4MACS steering group A first set of tentative alternative policy scenarios has been already prepared Scenarios exploring the range of different burden sharing targets per Member State Specific scenarios exploring the possibility of CCS technology deployment November 19

15. Questions that could help to improve GAINS • Are direct N2O emissions really linearly dependent on N-input? • Will the Nitrate Directive have an effect on N2O emissions? • Which impacts can be expected from changing production technologies/agronomic optimizations? • Do we need extra-emission factors for organic farming? • What is the cost-efficiency of precision farming?

16. Three questions to NIAM • How can EC4MACS improve the communication with national modelling teams? • Which information from EC4MACS would be useful for national modelling teams? • Which information could be provided by national modelling teams to be included in the Europe-wide analysis?

17. Interaction with national modelling teams • Information that could be offered: • GAINS is accessible available on the Internet, all data can be freely downloaded • National versions of GAINS possible • Most useful information from national teams: • Implementation of current emission control legislation • Energy projections coherent with national climate policy • Under EC4MACS, bilateral consultations foreseen for 2010.

18. National teams DNDC-EUROPE National teams DNDC-EUROPE Possible interactions with national teams • Farm practice/management (NitroEurope-IP: crop rotations; timing of operations; ...) • Detailed land use maps (e.g. commune-level for validation of our agri-maps) • “Regionalized” emission factors for Nr/GHG fluxes from agricultural soils

19. Different approaches for national GAINS implementations The “Italian” way: • Provinces as separate emission source regions • Province-to-grid transfer matrices • Software hosted locally, only limited update The “Dutch” way: • Entire country as one source region (as in GAINS-Europe) • Sector-to-grid transfer matrices • Software hosted at IIASA server (but with restricted access), regularly updated • Fully integrated into GAINS-Europe

20. State of play of the revision of the EU NEC Directive Markus Amann (IIASA) based on input from Ger Klaassen and Andre Zuber (EC)

21. State of play • DG-ENV has started Inter-Service consultations • Commission’s agreement planned for July 2008 • No further stakeholder involvement before publication of final Commission’s proposal • Once agreed, NEC6 report and scenario details on GAINS internet will be released

22. Assumptions on economic drivers for NEC optimization • Economic development and energy policy as in PRIMES Nov 2007 baseline • Energy projection (developed with PRIMES) is compliant with Climate and Energy package. • Flexible instruments to cut-off domestic measures at €30/t CO2 • Assuming trading of renewable energy permits among Member States • Results in -12% CO2 in 2020 in the EU-27 • National projections of agricultural activities as used before

23. Primary energy consumption in EU-272000 and projections for 2020

24. Environmental improvements and emission reductions, central case, EU-27, 2020 Environmental improvements Emission reductions

25. Air pollution control costs 2020on top of current policy Costs as % of GDP per Member State

26. Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27

27. Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27

28. Trade-off between efficiency and equityIncrease in total costs if GDP-related costs in each MS limited Costs as % of GDP per Member State Costs for EU-27

29. Sensitivity cases • Without Climate and Energy Package (i.e., for PRIMES 2007 baseline) • Without trading of renewable energy • With full implementation of Nitrates Directive • For alternative health impact hypothesis (primary PM only) • For higher environmental ambition level (as suggested by European Parliament)

30. EU-27 emissions of the sensitivity casesrelative to 2000

31. SO2 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases

32. NOx reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases

33. PM2.5 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases

34. NH3 reductionsfor the central and the sensitivity cases

35. Conclusions • While final decision on NECs not yet taken within the Commission, NEC proposal will be coherent with Climate and Energy package • Proposed emission reductions are in safe distance to MRR • Sensitivity cases suggest robustness against (reasonable) changes in major exogenous policy assumptions • Full documentation will be released after publication of the final Commission proposal