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POWER SUPPLY FOR EUROPE: How Sustainable Can It Be ?

POWER SUPPLY FOR EUROPE: How Sustainable Can It Be ?. Prof. Dr. PETER NOVAK Dean, School of Tehnology and Systems, SLOVENIA. 1. Outline. CLIMATE CHANGE and POWER POWER NEEDS IN EU SOLAR POWER CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES NORTH AFRICA RESOURCES DESIGN CONCEPT ECONOMICS HOW TO START?

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POWER SUPPLY FOR EUROPE: How Sustainable Can It Be ?

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  1. POWER SUPPLY FOR EUROPE:How Sustainable Can It Be ? Prof. Dr. PETER NOVAK Dean, School of Tehnology and Systems, SLOVENIA Power supply in Europe 1

  2. Outline • CLIMATE CHANGE and POWER • POWER NEEDS IN EU • SOLAR POWER • CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES • NORTH AFRICA RESOURCES • DESIGN CONCEPT • ECONOMICS • HOW TO START? • CONCLUSIONS Power supply in Europe 2

  3. Sir Stern introduction of the Review “The Economics of Climate Change” • GHG emissions are an externality • When poeple do not pay for the consequences of their actions we have market failure • Present development is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen • It is an externality that goes beyond those of ordinary cogestion or pollution • This externality is different in 4 key ways, it is: • global • long term • Involves risks and uncertainties • and potentially involves major and irreversible change Power supply in Europe 3

  4. Energy and GHG emissions- world 65% 45% Power supply in Europe 4

  5. ELECTRICITY IN SOCIETY • ELECTRICITYis a basic final energy need for each society • Electricityproduction/consumptionGROWTHin the world in last 30 years(1972 -2002) was 5,6% with yearly additions of 343 TWh/y (2006 total: ~ 17.426 TWh/y) • Electricity CONSUMPTIONpro capita in 2002 in the world varies extremely and lies between 27 kWh/cap in Etiopia and 27.764 kWh/cap on Iceland (1: 1000) Power supply in Europe 5

  6. EU ENERGY CASE TPE use in 2006: ~ 1 637 mio toe TPE import: 56% Electricity consumption 2006: 3 178,6 TWh/y (18% of world consumption) Expected newly installed capacities to 2030 for replacement and to cover the expected growth : ~ 370 GW (~ 15 000 MW/yr trough 24 years !!!!) Investment: ~ 370 -400 Bn € EU Policy: 20 to 20 – 20% les emission of GHG to 2020 Solutions: energy conservations, nuclear, solar Power supply in Europe 6

  7. ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN EU Predicted installed capacity of differentgeneratingcapacities in 15 EU states (GW)* 2000201020202030 growth % • Nuclear136.4135.1117.245.6 - 66,5 ?? • Coal and Lignite166.1101.136.99.5 - 94,3 ?? • Open Cycle multi-fired68.760.2122.3244.6 256 • Open Cycle IPP33.12520.515.1 - 54,4 • GTCC59208.7305354.3 500,5 ?? • Small GT25.245.279.296.6 283,3 ?? • Clean Coal and Lignite0.53.426.637 7300 !!! • Biomass-Waste4.44.766.5 47,7 • Fuel Cells0001.3 --- • Hydro-Renewables119.2133.7158170.7 43,2 • TOTALS612.6717.1871.7981.2 60,2 *The Liberalizations of Europe's Electricity Markets –pg.12, 2000 Power supply in Europe 7

  8. 1600 1400 1200 1000 TWh 1995 800 2030 600 400 200 0 Gas Oil Coal Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass/waste , EU FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY Not sustainable solution Predicted Fuel Use in EU for Electricity Production* ? *Production of Electricity by energy Form, European Union Energy Outlook to 2020 Power supply in Europe 9

  9. 1600 1400 1200 Million Tons 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1995 2010 2020 EU CO2 EMISSIONS CO2 emmisions due to electricity production ~ 46% of total emissions of CO2 Total emission of CO2 in 2002: EU 15: 2,6 Gt EU 25: 3,1 Gt How to come down ? ? Power supply in Europe 10

  10. EU RE TARGET + 64% +87,5 GW New generating capacity: fossil fuel to 2010 104,5 GW* to 2030 368,6 GW* * 50 % new, 50 % replacement [1] White Paper, table 3, page 50 Power supply in Europe 11

  11. ENERGY SYSTEM CAN WE CHANGE THE ENERGY SYSTEM? Power supply in Europe 12

  12. ENERGY SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT 2 • ENERGY SYSTEM FOR • UN-SUSTAINABLE • DEVELOPMENT • - Minimum 6 energy carriers • Large emissions of : NOX, • CO, CO2, particulates • - Fossil fuels interdependency • - Supply un-security • - Limited life time of resources • WORLD EMISSIONS OF CO2 IN 2005 : • ~ 42 ÷ 44Gt/yr LIQUID FUEL LPG BIOMASS Power supply in Europe 13

  13. ENERGY SYSTEM FOR • SUSTAINABLE • DEVELOPMENT • Advatages: • Only 3 energy carriers ( gas, • liquid, electricity) universally • applicable • - Renevable electricity • Methane: CH4 Natural/synthetic • gas • Methanol: CH4OH – oxidized • liquid fuel • Almost no change of • infrastructure • C from biomas, H from water • GHG EMISSIONS IN YEAR • 2050 ÷2100 ~ 0CO2 • ~ GEOTHERMAL Power supply in Europe 14

  14. SOLAR ENERGY • AVAILABLE EVERYWHERE • LOW DENSITY • INTERMITTENT • TECHNOLOGIES IN DEVELOPMENT • SCALE ECONOMICS Power supply in Europe 15

  15. DIRECT SOLAR IRRADIATION on the world map Power supply in Europe 16

  16. Solar energy availability SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY Artistic view of PV power plant in desert region – with water pumping for agriculture PV potencial world map – Sahara is leader with 315 000 TWh/yr In EU 25 2007 consumtion:~ 3180 TWh/y 1/100 part Power supply in Europe 17

  17. POWER FROM AFRICA FOR EUROPE (SAHARA DESERT) • WHAT KIND OF ENERGY: • ELECTRICITY • SOLAR SIN-FUEL • ADVANTAGES: • ZERO EMISSION • USE OF THE SUN BELT • RENEWABLE ENERGY • USE OF NO ARABLE LAND • DISADVANTAGES: • TECHNOLOGY IN DEVELOPMENT • INVESTMENT COSTS • DISTANCE • POLITICAL ISSUE (ENERGY DEPENDENCY) Power supply in Europe 18

  18. RELIABILITY What kind of “SOLAR POWER CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES” are available for MW or GW scale ? Three technologies are available: 1. Solar thermal electricity 2. Solar PV 3. Wind Power supply in Europe 19

  19. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY • SOLAR TOWER (molten salt) ~ 900 °C ?? • PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, steam) ~400 °C • SOLAR CHIMNEY ~ 60 – 80 °C, buoyancy-wind Power supply in Europe 20

  20. CPS environmental benefits Steinhagen, DLR,Germany

  21. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY • SOLAR TOWER (molten salt-sodium, potassium nitrate) ~ 900 °C • ONLY EXPERIMENTAL UNIT 10 MW • LOW EFFICIENCY ~ 7% • INVESTMENT NOT KNOWN • MAINTENANCE OF HELIOSTATS • HIGH TEMPERATURE CONVERSION USEFULL FOR SINFUEL • Project: 40 MW thermal – 15 MWe/24 h; 15$c/kWh • Investment: 100 M$ Power supply in Europe 22

  22. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY • PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil, water/steam) ~400 °C • Real SEGS 354 MW – 20 year of operation • Efficiency:~ 10,8%,y; 20% dayly max. • New plant eff.:: ~ 15-16%,y • Solar field eff. up to 60% • investment: $2000/kW for SEGS • Investment: $ 850/kW for ISCCS • Maintenance: acceptable • Hybridization up to 25%, thermal storage • Thermal storage costs:~ $20/ kWh Mojave desert, Kramer Junction SEGS- Solar Electric Generating System ISCCS – Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle System Power supply in Europe 23

  23. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY Solar electric generation system (SEGS) – layout; Land use: ~ (20 – 25) m2/kWe Power supply in Europe 24

  24. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY SEGS 354 MW Kramer Junction Mojave Desert, California Power supply in Europe 25

  25. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY SEGS – SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATING SYSSTEM Power supply in Europe 26

  26. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIESSolar chimney For medium power, simple design, reliable (?) Low efficency, integrated storage, aproppriate for hybridization with CSP, little experience Power supply in Europe 27

  27. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIESdesign data comparison ISCCS 200 MW: 773,5 GWh/y, Cf = 50% 673 ha (2600 x 2600 m); A= 33,6 m2/kW h ~ 14 %, costruction time: 12 months • Solar tower 200 MW: 350 ÷400 GWh/y, Cf ~ 57% (700 ÷ 800 GWh/y) • Land area: 1920 ha (D =5000 m, h =1000 m), A ~ 98 m2/kWe • ~ 2 ÷ (4) %, Construction time: 34 months Power supply in Europe 28

  28. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIESSOLAR PV ELECTRICITY • SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY • Si CRYSTALLINE CELLS: Efficiency ~ 12-16 % • Si POLYCRYSTALLIN CELLS: Efficiency ~ 10 -14 % • GaAs, CdTe, CIS,.. Efficiency > 16%(abs. max.:37,9 % at 10 sun, 39 % at 236 sun, May, Jun 2005) Power supply in Europe 29

  29. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY Solar PV power plant, Tucson, Arizona, USA Power supply in Europe 30

  30. ESTIMATED PRODUCTION CAPACITY • EU 25 ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2010: > 3500 TWh (2711 TWh in 2002) • CONSTRUCTION PLAN TO 2030: 184, 3 GW FOR REPLACEMENT AND 184,3 GW NEW PP • MIN. RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE: 87,5 GW • 50 % of them can be build in SAHARA as SUSTAINABLE, POLLUTION FREE Power Plants Power supply in Europe 31

  31. Sustainable electricity supply proposal Solar electricity production for EU in north -east LIBYA desert Available: • LAND • SOLAR IRRADIATION • TECHNOLOGIES • ELECTRICITY DISPATCH Power supply in Europe 32

  32. MAP of LIBYA 1,759,540.00 sq km, 1% arable land Land for ~ 700 GW PP 200 x 200 km ~1542 km ~1667 km Power supply in Europe 33

  33. CLIMATIC DATA FOR NORTH - EAST LIBYA YEARLY AVERAGE: Air temperature: 19,1°C Insulation on 31°tilted surface: 6,18 kWh/m2(6,6 kWh/m2 opt.) Wind speed, height 50 m: 5,01 m/s (86% > [3÷ 10] m/s) Power supply in Europe 34

  34. PV production NORTH - EAST LIBYA YEARLY AVERAGE: Air temperature: 19,1°C Insulation on 31°tilted surface: 6,18 kWh/m2(6,6 kWh/m2 opt.) Yearly production: 1541 kWhe Land use: ~ 25 m2/ kWp Power supply in Europe 35

  35. DESIGN CONCEPT 1200 MW SOLAR THERMAL, PV and WIND POWER PLANT unit, consisting of: 1 x 200 MW solar chimney; 5000 x 5000 m, H = 1000 m 6 x 100 MW ISCCS 3 x 6100 x 700 m 2 x 100 MW PV 1 x 5000 x 500 80 x 2,5 MW WG between others __________________________________________ Total: 1200 MW area 6800 x 6400 m = 43, 52 km2 Power supply in Europe 36

  36. DESIGN CONCEPT Total efficiency (with present technology): Solar chimney: 3,0 % ISCCS: 12,5% PV: 10,5% WG: 40,0% Capacity factor: Cf ~ 0,75 Yearly electricity production: 3,862 (ST+PV) + 1,280 (WG) TWh = 5,142 TWh/yr Number of units build per year: 7 ÷ 10 Power supply in Europe 37

  37. DESIGN SCHEDULE AND CAPACITY Because of different construction durations, the order of the construction should be: • PV – 2 x 100 MW • Wind generators, 80 x 2,5 MW (w ~ 6,4 m/s) • Solar chimney, 1 x 200 MW • ISCCP, 6 x 100 MW To cover 100% of the yearly electricity consumption in 2030 for 25 EU Countries, a land area of max. 200 x 200 km will be needed or less than 2,5% of Libya’s desert area. Production of 4000 TWh/yr with power capacity factor of 0,75 could be achieved. Using the hybridisation power capacity, this factor could be close to 1. Power supply in Europe 38

  38. 2 x 100 PV 6 x 100 MW ISCCS 1 x 200 MW SOLAR POWER STATION 1 GW + ~ 200 WIND TURBINE (~ 7X7 KM) DESIGN CONCEPT 80 x 2,5 MW WG 2 x 100 MW PV 6 x 100 MW ISCCS Solar chimney 200 MW SOLAR POWER PLANT 1,2 GW Location: 31°N;23°E; Land use:~ 7 x 7 km P. Novak, Energotech, SI Power supply in Europe 39

  39. CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY ISCCS – INTEGRATED SOLAR COMBINED-CYCLE SYSTEM Low pressure solar steam Variants: ORC geothermal hot rock High pressure solar steam Power supply in Europe 40

  40. TRANSMISSION Electricity In the first phase of solar power plant construction the mediteranian high voltage line circular line can be used. • The second phase is construction of the high voltage direct current under-sea line to EU contries. • The third phase is to convert solar electricity to syn-fuels: hydrogen, methan (gas) and methanol (liquid) for sustainable energy system Power supply in Europe 41

  41. Future possible grid connections

  42. CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ECONOMICS SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY Debt Interest Rate: 9,5% Equity IRR: 15% Performans waranty: 1-5 y Peak capacity factor on 6h basis: 90 -95% with fossil hybrid or thermal storage Annual capacity factor: Cf ~ 40-50 % Power supply in Europe 43

  43. CPS ECONOMICS SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT - ISCCS (www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htlm) Power supply in Europe 44

  44. PV ECONOMICS SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY Solar modules costs The cost of the system is about 2-timesthe module costs, depending on the land and support structure costs; COSTS ~ (7 – 10) $/Wp (5,4 ÷7,7) €/Wp Power supply in Europe 45

  45. Syn-fuel – Hydrogen costs SOLAR HYDROGEN: 4 - 2 TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE Basic Research Needs for solar energy utilisation, ANL Workshop April 2005 Power supply in Europe 46

  46. How to start ? • Donation of the land to one of UNO international organizations (UNESCO; UNDP; UNEP) – 35 ÷ 99 year contract • Organizing international activities to build the first unit from donations/credit (WB, GEF) and private/public partnership • Selling the “green” electricity to Europe and other interested countries • Profit should be used for activities of UNO (e.g. UNESCO, UNDP, UNEP, etc.) Power supply in Europe 47

  47. How to start ? Benefits: • UN organizations become financially less dependent and can help African and other countries in development. • Europe will be supplied with sustainable electricity from independent organizations. • Experience will be collected for the future commercially built units. • Libya or other (land owning) North Africa countries will become important part of international sustainable development policy • Africa’s development can be financed by itself Power supply in Europe 48

  48. CONCLUSIONS • The question of solar electricity production on large scale in North Africa for EU is not: “can we do it” but “why don’t we do it” • We have the technology, which is not yet optimized, but is available. • Do we have the political will? THANK YOU Power supply in Europe 49

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