All Island Environmental Health Forum

1. All Island Environmental Health Forum Tomorrow’s Environmental Health Developments in the International Climate Change Agenda Owen Ryan Department of the Environment, Heritage & Local Government May 2010

2. Climate Change Agenda • International agenda • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992); • Kyoto Protocol (1997); • (Commitment period 2008-2012) • IPCC – 4th scientific assessment report (2007). • EU agenda • European Climate Change Programme. • National agenda • 1st National Climate Change Strategy published 2000. • 2nd Strategy (2007-2012) published April 2007. • Commitment to the Climate Change Bill 2010.

3. Ultimate objective • Ultimate objective of UN convention: • stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. • Convention strengthened with the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in 1997; but Protocol targets will expire at end 2012.

4. International negotiations • Focused on finding a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. • EU pressing for a comprehensive treaty based on keeping global temperature within 2˚C of pre-industrial levels. • Copenhagen Accord (Dec ’09) contains positive commitments on action but falls well short of EU ambition. • Not legally binding!

5. Future negotiations • 16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention – Mexico, December 2010. • EU position - a stepwise approach, building on Copenhagen Accord. • Need decisions to anchor the Copenhagen Accord in the UN process. • 17th Conference in South Africa in 2011. • Possible agreement on new treaty.

6. Independent EU ambition • Binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. • Underpinned by the 2008 EU Climate and Energy legislative package. • Conditional offer to step up to 30% as part of a global and comprehensive international agreement for the post-2012 period.

7. National policy • National Climate Change Strategy 2007-2012 (published April 2007) • mitigation, and • adaptation. • Annual Carbon Budget • Introduced 2007 to progress policy development. • Climate Change Bill to provide, i.a.: • statutory basis for policies and principles; and • national mitigation and adaptation plans.

8. Adaptation • IPCC definition: • adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. • Impacts are inevitable due to current and historic emissions; adaptation is essential. • Policy development in Ireland still at a relatively early stage.

9. Context for adaptation policy • Effective global mitigation essential. • Adaptation not an option; current and historic emissions. • Challenges and opportunities. • Not a stand-alone issue; risk assessment/risk management objective that must be – • informed by best available science, and • embedded in all policy areas - integration. • Awareness – influence behaviour to reduce impacts/costs and maximise opportunities. • Responses must not be counter-productive.

10. General impacts • Globally – rising temperatures, heat-waves, rising sea levels, droughts, floods, storms and fires. • Northern Europe: • initial impacts may include benefits, such as less demand for heating, and increased crop yields and forest growth, but • negative impacts are likely to outweigh benefits.

11. Potential health impacts • According to IPCC, projected climate change related exposures likely to affect the health status of millions of people through, i.a. • increased deaths, disease and injury due to heatwaves, floods, fires storms and droughts; • increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases; and • altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors. • Greatest risk to people with low adaptive capacity.

12. Possible impacts in Ireland • By the end of 21st century: • average temperature projected to rise, possibly by as much as 1-4˚C; • autumn and winter seasons will become wetter, possibly by as much as 15-25%;. • summers will become drier, possibly by as much as 10-18%. • Extreme events may become more frequent and intense, e.g. storms, droughts, flooding. • Coastal zones may be particularly vulnerable

13. National adaptation policy • Objective – to provide a national framework for the integration of adaptation into decision-making at national and local level. • Foundation – 2009 report from EPA: • A Summary of the State of Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts for Ireland. • Ongoing work on key issues, including vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity. • Climate Change Bill to provide for policy responses through adaptation planning.

14. Stakeholder input to policy • Opportunities for stakeholder input: • Heads of the Climate Change Bill and the Regulatory Impact Assessment, and • draft national adaptation framework when published. • “A well defined and reassuring response to potential health impacts will be a key component of a comprehensive and successful national adaptation framework.” Minister Gormley, Feb ’10)

15. Conclusion • Climate change – one of the greatest threats facing mankind and a key cross-cutting policy issue for Government. • Global GHG emissions must be halved by 2050; developed countries in aggregate must reduce emissions by 80% or more. • Targets for 2020 and beyond will be much more onerous than Kyoto Protocol; need for transition to low-carbon future. • Adaptation to inevitable impacts essential.