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MIMIC Minimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

MIMIC Minimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies. Jakub Montewka , PhD Presenter: Kaarle Ståhlberg , MSc Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre. November 4 th , 2011. Steering Committee meeting. Background. Maritime traffic poses various hazards

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MIMIC Minimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

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  1. MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies JakubMontewka, PhD Presenter: KaarleStåhlberg, MSc Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre November 4th, 2011 Steering Committee meeting

  2. Background • Maritime traffic poses various hazards • Oil spills are often major disasters picturepenzance.co.uk/photos/files/2/8/4/torrey117.jpg • Risk management actions forced by catastrophic spills. • Post-accident policies not comprehensive, biased by the characteristics of single accident. t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRGAR7Bkb0g4O5bHZAKrcrs8VLPMIohRJ0clnOyVvKz19vsTexZu135ADZD MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  3. Background http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8664684.stm • Most major spills from sea transport • Spill size not a measure of environmental damage MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  4. Present status – the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/ On avarage more than 3000 ships bound to the Gulf of Finland monthly. MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  5. Present status – modelling the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland Research conducted within a flagship project EfficienSea, 2009-2012 MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  6. Motivation for MIMIC Current Models • Segregated models • Effects on details • Results are abstract • Accident probability • spill size • Poor future predictivity MIMIC • Holistic approach • System level effects • Results as RCO’s • Risk Control Options • Policy decision support • Future trends • Traffic flows • Ship design MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  7. Holistic risk assessment for the maritime domain IMO. Guidelines fo Formal Safety Assessment for use in the IMO rule-making process. MSC/Circ.1023, MEPC/Circ.392, 2002 MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011 System > Σ parts Changes in one part -> system changes

  8. Waterway design and operation • Ship design and operation • Frequency reduction • Environmental impact • Economical impact • Social impact • Surroundings • Consequence type • Technical factors • Human factors • Consequence mitigation • Regulations • Ship type A framework for modelling a risk in maritime domain • Social impact November 4th, 2011 MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies

  9. Risk optimization Risk=Probability x Consequences • Probability: • Navigators performance • Waterways • Ship managment • etc... • Consequences: • Ship crashworthiness • Damage ship stability • Accident response • etc... Define feasible options and dependencies among them. Define the constrains. Perform the optimization having the risk as an objective. Find the set of optimal solutions. Consider the optimal solutions as RECOMMENDATIONS MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  10. MIMIC contributions • Contribution for several stakeholders • Society • Policy makers • Ship managers • EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region • ‘to make the Baltic Sea Region a safe and secure place’ • linking security issues with safety management • ‘to make the Baltic Sea region an environmentally sustainable place’ • Applicable for ant other sea area • Gulf of Finland as demonstrative area MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  11. Expected Results MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011 • Holistic maritime risk management • Integrating knowledge from previous projects • OILECO, SAFGOF, METKU, EFFICIENSEA, CAFÉ, OILRISK • Grounding risk • Security issues • Traffic flow internals • Environmental and economical effects • Optimization of risk management for efficiency

  12. Expected Results • Proactive policy decision assessment tool • Holistic impact evaluation of policy options • Improving prediction of future developments • Web-based risk managment tool • Integrating security and safety • Combining probability and consequenses • Supporting accident response decisions • Training • Planning MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies November 4th, 2011

  13. Kotka Maritime Research Centre

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