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GOVERNOR’S NOTHERN WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT

GOVERNOR’S NOTHERN WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT. December 16 & 17, 2013 Four Seasons Island Resort Pembine , Wisconsin. Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. December 17, 2013.

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GOVERNOR’S NOTHERN WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT

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  1. GOVERNOR’S NOTHERN WISCONSIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUMMIT December 16 & 17, 2013 Four Seasons Island Resort Pembine, Wisconsin Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development December 17, 2013

  2. ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES 2

  3. JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

  4. RECESSION COMPARISONSLAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS 4 Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

  5. REAL ESTATE EQUITY GETTING A NICE REBOUND

  6. SECURITIES’ APPRECIATION IS GETTING US BACK OVER THE HUMP

  7. STATE AND LOCAL SPENDING ON A NEW TRAJECTORY

  8. JOBS GROWTH SCENARIOSCONTRAINTS ON ECONOMY 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.5% Thousands Q1 ‘17 Q1 ‘15 Unemployment rates assume a participation rate of 63.5% Source: William Testa, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

  9. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPING Wisconsin U.S.

  10. WISCONSIN JOBS INCREASE Source: CES, BLS, OEA

  11. WISCONSIN JOBS INCREASE Source: CES, BLS, OEA

  12. Who is in demand?

  13. MOST JOB OPENINGS BY OCCUPATION *Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.

  14. MOST JOB OPENINGS ON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN

  15. MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGES CHARACTERISTICS

  16. WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUE FIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS

  17. Northern Wisconsin Economic and Workforce Profile

  18. Source: WI Dept. of Administration, Demographic Services Center, Population and Housing Estimates

  19. Sources: Job Numbers Estimates from the SNAP, land areas from Census Bureau’s Population and Housing Estimates.

  20. Source: WI Dept. of Administration, Demographic Services Center, Population and Housing Estimates

  21. Northern Wisconsin,Total Nonfarm Employment x Quarter (4 Quarter Moving Average) Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and WI Worknet, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

  22. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, Labor Market Information Unit, DWD

  23. Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, Labor Market Information Unit, DWD

  24. Northern Wisconsin Avg. Quarterly New Stable Hires by Sector New Stable Hires (4-Quarter Moving Ave.) Source: U.S. Census, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), retrieved from LED Extraction Tool BLS, All Urban Cons. Chained Consumer Price Index

  25. Northern Wisconsin & State,Employment x Industry 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  26. Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table GCT 805

  27. Northern Wisconsin Industry Sector Earnings Changes2012 Real Avg. Annual Earnings Source: U.S. Census, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), retrieved from LED Extraction Tool BLS, All Urban Cons. Chained Consumer Price Index

  28. Employment Shares, 2012 Source: WI Worknet, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  29. Share of the population is 65 or more years old… in the year 2010 in the year 2035 Source: WI Dept. of Administration, Demographic Services Center, Population and Housing Estimates

  30. Northern Wisconsin The Aging Workforce, A Solution for Tight Labor Markets? Percentage of Total Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Census, Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), retrieved from LED Extraction Tool BLS, All Urban Cons. Chained Consumer Price Index

  31. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  32. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  33. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  34. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW),

  35. Wisconsin and Upper Midwest Well Positioned Going Forward Results of Boston Consulting Group Research

  36. Midwest Manufacturing Advantages • We have the infrastructure • We have the clusters • We have the talent • We have the cost structure

  37. Exhibit 1: Labor and Energy Costs Will Make the U.S. One of the Developed Worlds Lowest Cost Countries Source: Boston Consulting Group, Aug 20, 2013 BCG calculations from data supplied by Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Economic Census, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and International Labor Organization. Chinese costs represent costs in Yangtze region.

  38. Exhibit 2: The U.S. Labor Market is the Most Attractive of Developed Worlds Major Manufacturers Their Labor Costs Are 1.2 to 1.6 Times Higher US Labor Market More Flexible Source: Boston Consulting Group, Aug 20, 2013

  39. Exhibit 3: Abundant Natural Gas Gives Large Energy Cost Advantage to U.S. Manufacturers Source: Boston Consulting Group, Aug 20, 2013

  40. Questions ?

  41. CONTACT INFORMATION • Dennis Winters • Phone: 608-267-3262 • Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov • Website:www.dwd.wisconsin.gov • OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

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