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Agenda for this Evening

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Agenda for this Evening

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Agenda for this Evening • Review the week • Examine Economic Data • Tax & Deficit Cuts • Outlook on Oil • A New Year of risks • European Debt • China Correction

  3. Competition Winners 1st place: jnurre 2nd Place: mvbutzy08

  4. Last Weeks Performance: S&P 500 +2.97%

  5. One Month Performance: S&P 500 +0.3%

  6. Airtime: Fri. Dec. 3 2010 | 5:01 PM ET A Week in Review

  7. Airtime: Thurs. Dec. 2 2010 | 12:02 PM ET What moved the markets Thursday?

  8. Housing Data • Pending Home Sales for October expected to remain unchanged ( Zero Percent) • Actual Results +10.4% • Midwest & Northeast: Large Increases • South: Modest Gains • West: Little/NO change

  9. HousingTrends • Existing home inventories are falling • The top 10 homebuilders have remarkably higher market share now than they did during peak of housing market • Significant increase in demand for smaller homes (2-3 bedrooms)

  10. Goldman Sachs' Top Bank Picks • JPMorgan • Citi • Bank of America • Principal Financial Group • Blackstone Group • Invesco • Evercore • TD Ameritrade • Stifel • State Street • Simon Property Group • Dr Horton

  11. Tax & Deficit Cuts • Wednesday’s Proposed Plan • Overhaul the tax brackets to 12%-22%-28% • Lower Corporate tax rate to 28% from 35% • Raise Social Security retirement age to 69 in 2075 • Needed 14 of 18 votes to pass • Only received 11 votes on Friday • A deal could still be made before year end which could send the markets higher

  12. Airtime: Fri. Dec. 3 2010 | 6:25 PM ET Return of $100 Oil?

  13. Oil Prices: 1 Month

  14. Video Summary • Crude Oil prices up 6.5% on the week • Dollar significantly weaker on the week • Price of Oil: $89/barrel • Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank all raise oil price forecasts for 2011 & 2012

  15. National Average Gas Price per Gallon • One Month Ago: $2.80 • Today:$2.90 • Expected Year End: $3.00+

  16. Drilling Ban • March 3oth: Obama announces permission of greater offshore oil exploration • April 20th: BP Oil Spill • December 1st: Ban on further offshore oil exploration for 7 years • China and Venezuela ramping up offshore drilling

  17. Oil Plays • Halliburton (HAL) • Weatherford (WFT) • Schlumberger (SLB) • Baker Hughes (BHI) • British Petroleum (BP)

  18. Beginning of 2011 Things to keep an Eye on

  19. Airtime: Fri. Dec. 3 2010 | 4:18 PM ET An Equity Correction in China?

  20. Risks with China • Industrial growth will continue but stocks could hurt by measures to reduce inflation • Short (FXI) & (HOGS) • China may increase reserve requirements for banks http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-05/greater-china-daybook-bank-reserve-ratios-may-rise-in-new-year.html

  21. Airtime: Fri. Dec. 3 2010 | 5:02 PM ET The Week Ahead

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