1 / 17

Voting and Elections

0. Voting and Elections. October 29, 2007. 0. Republican Candidates (2008). Rudy Giuliani , former Mayor of New York City Mike Huckabee , former Governor of Arkansas Duncan Hunter , U.S. Representative

ulric
Download Presentation

Voting and Elections

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. 0 Voting and Elections October 29, 2007

  2. 0 Republican Candidates (2008) • Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City • Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas • Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative • Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council • John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona • Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988Libertarian Presidential nominee • Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts • Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado • Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee

  3. Democratic Candidates (2008) • Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware • Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady • Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut • John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate • Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska • Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio • Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois • Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former Secretary of Energy

  4. 0 Who decides who the party nominee will be? • In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention • Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries • These contests determine how many delegates a candidate receives. • The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

  5. 0 Caucus • A meeting of candidate supporters • Democratic caucuses allow any registered Democratic to participate • Republican caucuses are less open; some limit participation to party officials and workers • Systems used include winner-take-all and PR

  6. 0 Primaries • Elections to decide nominees • Closed primaries • Only party members can vote • Open primaries • Any registered voter can select a party’s primary and vote in it

  7. 0 Shorter Primaries

  8. Schedule for the 2008 Presidential Primaries

  9. 0 Iowa and NH can help the Underdog • Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH. • Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent) • Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent) • Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent) • Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent) • McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

  10. 0 Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

  11. 0 Voters in New Hampshire

  12. 0 Impact of New Hampshire Primary

  13. 0 Front loading • 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March • Benefits the front runner • Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process • Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

  14. 0 Why do early primaries play such a large role? • Importance of momentum • Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more contributions • This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch up.

  15. 0 Consequences • Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004) • In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination. • Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

  16. 0 Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs • Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks. • News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

  17. 0 Example of the Consequences of Front-loading in 2000 1,034 delegates needed to win

More Related