ODARA Research Team

2. ODARA Research Team MHCP Research: Zoe Hilton, Grant Harris, Marnie Rice Carol Lang, Catherine Cormier, Sonja Dey Ontario Provincial Police, BSS: Det. Supt Kate Lines, Angela Eke Assistants supported through SSHRC: Ruth Houghton, Joe Camilleri Partners: Ontario Ministry of Corrections; Peel Regional Police; York Regional Police; Orillia Soldiers Memorial Hospital; Cornwall General Hospital; Rosewood Shelter Today I�m going to tell you about the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment, or the ODARA, that has been developed by a research collaboration involving me and my colleagues at the Penetang Mental Health Centre Research Dept; the Ontario Provincial Police Behavioural Sciences Section; with support from the federal Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council; and in partnership with Corrections; other police services and, now, hospital services that are members of the Ontario Network of Sexual and Domestic Assault treatment care and treatment centres We began this project because we wanted to dvp a risk asst that is useful to front line officers at the scene of a domestic occurrence, to have an accurate measure of risk, to take to bail hearings and help in other decision points, and which is also something that can be of use for victims and to aid communication between different agencies dealing with WA cases And as you can see from our partners in this project, we�ve already enjoyed communication between different police services and agencies that have shared information for the research These are agencies that don�t have the depth of information, or probably the time, to score a detailed risk assessment like the VRAG --the vrag was designed to predict any violt recidm, not just WA and it does have a strong prediction effect for general violt recidvm including among wife assaulters when we�ve tested it, But we wanted to see whether we could get as good a prediction effect using just the information that would be available to a front line police officer or clinician And of course we wanted to predict wife assault recidivism specifically not just any violent recidivism . So that�s the research I�m going to tell you about today Today I�m going to tell you about the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment, or the ODARA, that has been developed by a research collaboration involving me and my colleagues at the Penetang Mental Health Centre Research Dept; the Ontario Provincial Police Behavioural Sciences Section; with support from the federal Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council; and in partnership with Corrections; other police services and, now, hospital services that are members of the Ontario Network of Sexual and Domestic Assault treatment care and treatment centres We began this project because we wanted to dvp a risk asst that is useful to front line officers at the scene of a domestic occurrence, to have an accurate measure of risk, to take to bail hearings and help in other decision points, and which is also something that can be of use for victims and to aid communication between different agencies dealing with WA cases And as you can see from our partners in this project, we�ve already enjoyed communication between different police services and agencies that have shared information for the research These are agencies that don�t have the depth of information, or probably the time, to score a detailed risk assessment like the VRAG --the vrag was designed to predict any violt recidm, not just WA and it does have a strong prediction effect for general violt recidvm including among wife assaulters when we�ve tested it, But we wanted to see whether we could get as good a prediction effect using just the information that would be available to a front line police officer or clinician And of course we wanted to predict wife assault recidivism specifically not just any violent recidivism . So that�s the research I�m going to tell you about today

3. ODARA Research Method Male, physical assault, (ex)partner, pre-1997 Recidivism: new physical assault on partner Construction n=589 (bootstrap); validation n=100 Set-wise, step-wise forward binary logistic regression 6 sets of variables coded from RMS for setwise analysis We started by identifying an index offence for each offender in the study, which was�.a physical assault by a man against his wife or exwife or cohabiting partner or expartner Recidivism an average of 5 years after the index offence RMS has lots of detail about an offence and what�s going on in the relnp we�ve been able to get some good information and excellent reliability Index Offence Details eg how severe the assault, injury that the police recorded , threats, confinement Nondomestic Criminal History .e.g # prior violt chgs, sentences, Domestic Criminal History e.g., #prior domestic chgs, other victims Sociodemographic Characteristics e.g., age employt as reported by the police Victim Reports e.g., she says she�s afraid, she says he�s jealous Relationship Characteristics e.g., length, #child, separations that the police recorded We also coded the DVSR and the SARA and DA although sometimes we relied on probation information to complete these, so we have the probation offices throughout Ontario to thank for their assistanceWe started by identifying an index offence for each offender in the study, which was�.a physical assault by a man against his wife or exwife or cohabiting partner or expartner Recidivism an average of 5 years after the index offence RMS has lots of detail about an offence and what�s going on in the relnp we�ve been able to get some good information and excellent reliability Index Offence Details eg how severe the assault, injury that the police recorded , threats, confinement Nondomestic Criminal History .e.g # prior violt chgs, sentences, Domestic Criminal History e.g., #prior domestic chgs, other victims Sociodemographic Characteristics e.g., age employt as reported by the police Victim Reports e.g., she says she�s afraid, she says he�s jealous Relationship Characteristics e.g., length, #child, separations that the police recorded We also coded the DVSR and the SARA and DA although sometimes we relied on probation information to complete these, so we have the probation offices throughout Ontario to thank for their assistance

4. ODARA Content Police and criminal record items domestic violence, other violence, sentence, violation Relationship items children, stepchildren, abuse in pregnancy, fear Assault history confinement, threats, violent outside home Substance abuse Barriers to victim support 13 items, each scored yes or no �whether there were prior domestic incidents in the police records� � whether police reported that the victim was afraid� Substance abuse -- that�s in the offender�s history or during the index assault Barriers to the victim obtaining support or assistance to deal w WA, such as living in an isolated area ODARA-LE: RMS format for law enforcement currently OPP leading rollout package ODARA-C: Clinic format for victim interview currently used on research basis at #of ontario�s sexual/domestic assault clinics13 items, each scored yes or no �whether there were prior domestic incidents in the police records� � whether police reported that the victim was afraid� Substance abuse -- that�s in the offender�s history or during the index assault Barriers to the victim obtaining support or assistance to deal w WA, such as living in an isolated area ODARA-LE: RMS format for law enforcement currently OPP leading rollout package ODARA-C: Clinic format for victim interview currently used on research basis at #of ontario�s sexual/domestic assault clinics

5. ODARA Predictions Definition of Recidivism ODARA Correlation We developed the ODARA to predict whether the ofder will commit any new wife assault and the correlation between the ODARA score and this measure of recid was good Of course, sometimes we want to know not just about any recidivism but whether an offender is going to commit a lot of new offences or how serious the new offences will be Well, the ODARA wasn�t designed to predict these measures of recidivism, so naturally it won�t predict them as well as any new assault but I�m happy to say the prediction turned out pretty good Severity of injuries -- we found no murders in the outcome offences most recidivism was common assault, threats, or assaults causing bodily harm and use of weapons but the ODARA was related to the level of injury that we did find, and with how serious the charges were that were laid, using the cormier-lang criminal history score This is a bonus, because it could have turned out not so good, there was no guarantee based on how we developed it We developed the ODARA to predict whether the ofder will commit any new wife assault and the correlation between the ODARA score and this measure of recid was good Of course, sometimes we want to know not just about any recidivism but whether an offender is going to commit a lot of new offences or how serious the new offences will be Well, the ODARA wasn�t designed to predict these measures of recidivism, so naturally it won�t predict them as well as any new assault but I�m happy to say the prediction turned out pretty good Severity of injuries -- we found no murders in the outcome offences most recidivism was common assault, threats, or assaults causing bodily harm and use of weapons but the ODARA was related to the level of injury that we did find, and with how serious the charges were that were laid, using the cormier-lang criminal history score This is a bonus, because it could have turned out not so good, there was no guarantee based on how we developed it

6. Percentage of Offenders Committing a New Assault The ODARA has 13 items all scored yes or no, one man�s score could be anywhere from 0 to 13 CLICK and explain chart So you can see that you don�t have to have a very high score to get into one of the highest risk groups, 5 puts you in the second highest bin So then obviously, you can�t just look at the ODARA score because it doesn�t tell you enough And the probability of recidivism isn�t 100% even in the last bin It�s 70% -- the risk of committing a new wife assault that comes to the attention of police IS THAT HIGH? The ODARA has 13 items all scored yes or no, one man�s score could be anywhere from 0 to 13 CLICK and explain chart So you can see that you don�t have to have a very high score to get into one of the highest risk groups, 5 puts you in the second highest bin So then obviously, you can�t just look at the ODARA score because it doesn�t tell you enough And the probability of recidivism isn�t 100% even in the last bin It�s 70% -- the risk of committing a new wife assault that comes to the attention of police IS THAT HIGH?

7. Score Interpretation:Percentile Rank and Likelihood of Reoffense You know, if it�s 100% or 10% it might be more obvious what to do with this risk but there�s this big in-between group you don�t know what to do with right? Well, let�s take a look at percentile rank and see what you think. Any time you make a statement about risk being high or low, you�re really talking about the probability of recidivism RELATIVE to another probability, so if you want to know whether a wife assaulter is high or low risk, you�re really comparing his risk to other wife assaulters or seeing how he ranks relative to other wife assaulters and that�s percentile rank The great thing about an actuarial risk assessment is that you actually have the data that tell you how an offender ranks relative to others This is what I want to show you now and this is especially for you married men out there because I have data that show that married men are especially bad at making comparative estimates� �A wife assaulter who scores zero on the ODARA is in the lowest 10th of wife assaulters if there were 100 Wars lined up between here and the podium then he�d be standing anywhere up to here. And about 5% of these guys would reoffend within the next few years. That�s what�s in the pie there. Is that pie a high risk? Well, look at where I am in the line, it�s in the lowest tenth.You know, if it�s 100% or 10% it might be more obvious what to do with this risk but there�s this big in-between group you don�t know what to do with right? Well, let�s take a look at percentile rank and see what you think. Any time you make a statement about risk being high or low, you�re really talking about the probability of recidivism RELATIVE to another probability, so if you want to know whether a wife assaulter is high or low risk, you�re really comparing his risk to other wife assaulters or seeing how he ranks relative to other wife assaulters and that�s percentile rank The great thing about an actuarial risk assessment is that you actually have the data that tell you how an offender ranks relative to others This is what I want to show you now and this is especially for you married men out there because I have data that show that married men are especially bad at making comparative estimates� �A wife assaulter who scores zero on the ODARA is in the lowest 10th of wife assaulters if there were 100 Wars lined up between here and the podium then he�d be standing anywhere up to here. And about 5% of these guys would reoffend within the next few years. That�s what�s in the pie there. Is that pie a high risk? Well, look at where I am in the line, it�s in the lowest tenth.

12. WHEN SCORE = 3 Look, the score has gone up by only one point, and the pie showing the probability of recidivism has gone up a little but look how far I�ve come along this line... Now we�re looking at the second last bin The probalitity of recidivism is about 60% Well, that�s like just over 50%, I might as well toss a coin, right? But look how far along the line I�ve come, 93 Wars stand between me and the start of the line, that is, someone scoring at least 5 on the ODARA is at the 93rd %tile in the worst 7% WHEN SCORE = 3 Look, the score has gone up by only one point, and the pie showing the probability of recidivism has gone up a little but look how far I�ve come along this line... Now we�re looking at the second last bin The probalitity of recidivism is about 60% Well, that�s like just over 50%, I might as well toss a coin, right? But look how far along the line I�ve come, 93 Wars stand between me and the start of the line, that is, someone scoring at least 5 on the ODARA is at the 93rd %tile in the worst 7%

13. A score of 7 or more puts an offender in the highest group w a 70% probability of recidivism that comes to the attention of police but this is in the highest 1% So we�re probably going to want to impose more security on a WA with an ODARA score of 7 than with a score of 0, maybe not let him out on bail for example if everything else is equal But we�ve got this big population of Wars who are somewhere inbetween, do we know whether their risk is relatively high or low? Yes, because we used an actuarial instrument. The percentage in the pies, or the absolute probability of recidivism might well be higher that the ODARA indicates because it was developed using information known to the police, we don�t know about all recidivism by any means But supposing we do count all assaults even if they�re not in police records, maybe the risk is much higher, especially for the offenders who fall into the higher bins but , their relative risk remains the same And if you�re really just interested in capturing the most severe assaults, the probability of them happening shifts down for most offenders, but the offenders percentile rank stays the same� %ile rank is where its at How does ODARA compare w the other risk assessments I talked about? A score of 7 or more puts an offender in the highest group w a 70% probability of recidivism that comes to the attention of police but this is in the highest 1% So we�re probably going to want to impose more security on a WA with an ODARA score of 7 than with a score of 0, maybe not let him out on bail for example if everything else is equal But we�ve got this big population of Wars who are somewhere inbetween, do we know whether their risk is relatively high or low? Yes, because we used an actuarial instrument. The percentage in the pies, or the absolute probability of recidivism might well be higher that the ODARA indicates because it was developed using information known to the police, we don�t know about all recidivism by any means But supposing we do count all assaults even if they�re not in police records, maybe the risk is much higher, especially for the offenders who fall into the higher bins but , their relative risk remains the same And if you�re really just interested in capturing the most severe assaults, the probability of them happening shifts down for most offenders, but the offenders percentile rank stays the same� %ile rank is where its at How does ODARA compare w the other risk assessments I talked about?

14. ODARA Work in Progress Knowledge Transfer Evaluations: Police services Bail hearings Domestic assault clinics Generalization: ODARA-Clinic format for victim interview Dating violence, Female perpetrators, Same-sex? In-depth risk assessment with childhood history, psychopathy Theoretical models e.g., role of sexual jealousy Clinics -- we know we can predict whether violent men will come to the attention of police again with good accuracy, if I�m an abused woman and my husband scores 7 on the ODARA does that mean my risk of being assaulted again is 70%? clinic tests will also examine how the ODARA score correlates with injuries and mental health effectsClinics -- we know we can predict whether violent men will come to the attention of police again with good accuracy, if I�m an abused woman and my husband scores 7 on the ODARA does that mean my risk of being assaulted again is 70%? clinic tests will also examine how the ODARA score correlates with injuries and mental health effects