Climate change, land use planning and the EU Floods Directive: Lessons from the Schelde

1. Climate change, land use planning and the EU Floods Directive: Lessons from the Schelde Katrien Debeuckelaere Legal Advisor, Land Use Planning, Flemish Region Gretta Goldenman Director, Milieu Ltd, Environmental Law & Policy, Brussels

2. Outline of presentation • Impacts of climate change on flood risk in Europe • Climate change & the EU Floods Directive • Land use planning as an instrument for bringing together flood risk management & nature protection • Case study of the Schelde River • Lessons learned

3. Europe is concerned about floods • Over 100 major damaging floods in Europe between 1998 & 2004 • Danube (2002) • Elbe (2002) • Impacts include • 700 deaths + half a million people displaced • Over €25 billion in insured economic losses • Trend continues • Czech Republic & Romania (2010)

4. Climate change impacts predicted for Europe • More rain in northwestern Europe, less rain in southern Europe • Over most mid- & high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere flood magnitude & frequency likely (66-90% probability) to increase in most regions, & low flows likely to decrease in most regions (IPCC, 2001) • More extreme precipitation events • Not yet possible to analyse climate change impacts on water resources at catchment scale(limited resolution of current CC simulations - grids 200 km2)

5. Climate change & flood risk Map showing the number of times more likely it is that a European winter will be extremely wet in 50 to 100 years, compared with today.Source: Palmer and Räisänen (2002).

6. EU Floods Directive Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks • applies to all inland waters & coastal waters across the EU territory • Member States required to • carry out preliminary flood risk assessments by 2011 • prepare flood risk maps by 2013 • develop flood risk management plans focused on prevention, protection & preparedness by 2015 • facilitate public participation in this process

7. EU Floods Directive (2) • Closely linked to Water Framework Directive • Requires coordination with e.g. river basin management planning & public participation procedures in their preparation • Coordination required for shared river basins, including with third counties • MS must not undertake measures that would increase flood risk in neighbouring countries

8. EU Floods Directive (3) • Aim: to reduce & manage the risks that floods pose to human health, environment, cultural heritage & economic activity • Recognises: • climate change as long-term risk factor • importance of sustainable land use in planning for flood risk prevention & management

9. Land use planning • Land use planning as an instrument for bringing together flood risk management & nature protection • The Schelde

10. Key dates for the Schelde • 1953 flood • 1976 flood – impetus for Sigma • 1977 – Sigma Plan (focus on dikes) • 2005 – Sigma Plan revised

11. Wintam

13. Sigma Plan revised • Climate change – rise of sea level – 1/70 years a flood – 1/lifetime – safety • Opportunity to combine flood prevention/safety – shipping - nature protection - recreation • SEA and CBA for SIGMA Plan

14. Land use planning Framework • Spatial structure plan for Flanders is a Policy plan • Implementation by Land-use plans - Spatial Implementation Plan – defines zoning

15. Spatial Structure Plan → Spatial Implementation Plan • Designation of and development prospects for the natural structure • Important role of the Schelde river as an important part of the natural structure • Sigma Plan + Spatial Structure Plan • Spatial Implementation Plan

17. Kruibeke-Bazel-Rupelmonde • Part of original Sigma Plan • 600 hectares • Spatial implementation plan needed for a flood control area – wetlands – reduced tidal area - dike • Protection against floods • Development of nature: mudflats and salt marshes; • Recreation; • Agriculture.

20. Prosperpolder • Sigma Plan revised • Longterm vision Schelde estuary (co-operation Flanders – Netherlands-) Hedwige polder – total 465 hectares • Spatial implementation plan needed for an intertidal area – 170 hectares • Protection against floods • Protection and development of nature: mudflats and salt marshes; • Recreation; • Agriculture.

22. Instruments • Policy plan: Spatial structure plan • Sigma plan • Land use plan • Expropriation • Social plan • Landbank • Natureplan –SEA • CBA • … • At project level: permits

23. Who is involved • Several administrations at regional level • Flanders and the Netherlands: co-operation • Several communes • Civil society eg nature protection, farmers,.. • Individual stakeholders

24. Lessons – Climate change • Plans → adaptable: Sigma plan → revision • New research results → implementation • Participation • Co-operation between administrations and cross-border • Land use plan is one of several instruments • Planningsystems in EU differ

25. Lessons – EU Floods Directive • Planning needs to be at regional as well as at national & local levels • The process takes time • Stakeholder participation helps, but there will be conflicts • Schelde case shows how flood risk assessment helps make the case for spending public funds on prevention & mitigation • Potential win-win situation for nature protection • In the end, political will essential

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