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Is Colorado’s Climate Changing?. If so, how can we prove it? Why should we care?. Colorado Snow Pack Graph. Colorado Snowpack. Source:http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5557. Type of Precipitation Rain vs Snow. FIGURE 2-8. Trend in Snow vs. Rain in Winter (1949–2004).
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Is Colorado’s Climate Changing? If so, how can we prove it? Why should we care?
Colorado Snowpack Source:http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5557
Type of Precipitation Rain vs Snow FIGURE 2-8. Trend in Snow vs. Rain in Winter (1949–2004) MORE SNOW LESS SNOW Fig. 2-8. Changes in the fraction of winter precipitation falling as snow vs. rain (1949–2004), after correcting for trends in precipitation amount. Blues indicates increasing fraction of snow; yellow decreasing fraction. Data are from NWS COOP stations. (from Knowles et. al. 2006, FIGURE 7)
Average Yearly Precipitation in Colorado 1900-2009 • Colorado Climate Report 2008
Average Yearly Temperatures in Colorado 1900-2009Colorado Climate Report 2008
Frequency of large forest wildfires vs. average temperatures during fire season (March-August) A. L. Westerling et al., Science 313, 940 -943 (2006)
Number of Days Over 100°F 1961-1979 Darker colors represent higher number of days over 100 F
Peak River FlowPeak River Flow Days– South Platt River Basin
1960 (Photo H. Waldrop) Arapaho Glacier, Boulder County, Colorado - comparison photos: 1898 (Photo J.R. Brackett): 2000 (Photo W.T. Pfeffer)
Rowe Glacier, Colorado - comparison photos Rowe Glacier, August, 25, 1916 (Photographer: W.T. Lee; NSIDC) Rowe Glacier, September 18, 2004 (Photographer: Andy Leach; leachfam.com)
Temperature Changes and the Change in the Latitudinal Location of Bird Species
Pika Habitat http://cires.colorado.edu/science/spheres/ecology/pikas.html
Future projections - TemperatureObserved and Projected Temperature Rise for the Southwest The average temperature in the Southwest has already increased roughly 1.5°F compared to a 1960-1979 baseline period. By the end of the century, average annual temperature is projected to rise approximately 4°F to 10°F above the historical baseline, averaged over the Southwest region. The brackets on the thermometers represent the likely range of model projections, though lower or higher outcomes are possible.
Future ProjectionsNumber of Days Over 100°F The number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100°F by late this century, compared to the 1960s and 1970s, is projected to increase strongly across the United States. For example, parts of Texas that recently experienced about 10 to 20 days per year over 100°F are expected to experience more than 100 days per year in which the temperature exceeds 100°F by the end of the century under the higher emissions scenario.91
Future Projections for Rain from Nov to MayCurrent Future What changes do you see? Source: Kyoko Ikeda (Colorado Headwaters Project)
Future Projections for Snow from Nov to MayCurrent Future What changes do you see? Source: Kyoko Ikeda (Colorado Headwaters Project)
Future projections Projected Change in Spring Precipitation, 2080-2099 Percentage change in March-April-May precipitation for 2080-2099 compared to 1961-1979 for a lower emissions scenario (left) and a higher emissions scenario (right). Confidence in the projected changes is highest in the hatched areas.
Future Projections – Extreme Heat Number of Days Over 100°F The number of days in which the temperature exceeds 100°F by late this century, compared to the 1960s and 1970s, is projected to increase strongly across the United States. For example, parts of Texas that recently experienced about 10 to 20 days per year over 100°F are expected to experience more than 100 days per year in which the temperature exceeds 100°F by the end of the century under the higher emissions scenario.91
Impacts of the changes on you • What’s the climate change, or climate change projection causing the impact? • How will it impact you? • What can you do to adapt or mitigate the impact?
