UPlan: How It Works and How to Get Started

1. UPlan: How It Works and How to Get Started A description for the rest of us Nathaniel Roth Information Center for the Environment University of California, Davis CalACT Conference Olympic Valley 4/22/2008

2. Why do we model? • 1. They allow us to test a wide variety of policy, planning and investment alternatives • 2. They create a consistent set of rules and criteria to test the alternatives. • 3. They respond to a wide variety of statutes requiring more accurate forecasts than in the past.

3. What do we get from our models? • Spatial Output • Where is the growth? • Tabular Output • How much? • Analysis • What are the likely impacts?

4. UPlan • Simple • Relatively simple data • Generally accessible demographic inputs • Simple algorithm/rules • Rule based • The “rules” govern the system • Urban Growth • A simple inexpensive model with rapid run times and fast data development

5. People People/HH Households Acres Acreage/HH

6. People People/HH SF/Employee Households Building SF Employees Employees/HH Acres FAR

7. 4 4 4 4 0 3 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 4 4 4 0 0 3 3 0 4 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 2 2 2 2 8 11 4 4 8 12 7 7 4 8 2 2 2 6 2 2 Combine Attractors Urban Edge Amenity Major Arterial Ramp Proximity CombinedEffect =

8. R R R R R R C C R C C C R R I I 8 11 4 4 8 12 7 7 4 8 2 2 2 6 2 2 Allocation General Plan Net Attraction We need 5 Residential, 3 Commercial, 2 Industrial R R 5 Highest Residential Attractions 3 Highest Commercial Attractions 2 All Industrial Selected R R C C C R I I

9. Data Types • Land Uses • Demographics • Residential • Employment • “General Plans” • Masks • Attractors • Discouragers

10. Customizable As of UPlan 2.6x Aggregate 3400+ Land uses across 536 city and county general plans Developed Land Use Types Not Agriculture or Timber Residential Types Density Classes Employment Types Square Feet per Employee Floor Area Ratio Land Uses

11. Residential Demographics • Population Growth • Starting population • Ending population • Average Household Size (PPHH) • Housing Proportions by Density Class • Percentage of new units entering each residential type • Average gross “footprint” per household

12. Employment Demographics • Average number of employed people per household • Percentage of employees entering each employment type • Average square footage per employee in buildings for each employment type • Floor Area Ratio for each employment type

13. Adopted General Plans Test existing general plans Speculative General Plans What if?... Provide the Structure for the Region’s Development Guide development to appropriate general locations “General Plans”

14. Prevent any growth at all..... Examples Water Bodies Public Land Existing Development (no redevelopment) Slopes/Geology Masks

15. Features that encourage development Pseudoeconomic Hedonic The Data Represents Effects of Policy Physical Features Attractors

16. Roads and transportation infrastructure Urban services: Water and wastewater Safety... police, fire Transit Amenities.... parks, entertainment, cultural events Past or Planned Growth Regulatory boundaries City Limits Spheres of Influence Attractors

17. Features that discourage development Represent Policy effects Physical features Discouragers

18. Discouragers • Physical • Steep or unstable slopes • Floodplains • Environmental • Natural resource protections... wetlands, species, agriculture, mineral resources • Hazards... Mining, soils • Administrative • Fees and exactions • Infrastructure Limits • Transportation • Water

19. What can be done with UPlan • Types of Scenarios • Recent trends (aka Status Quo, Base Case, Business as Usual) • General Plan Buildout • Change Scenarios • Sprawl • Compact • Resource protection • New Cities • Resource limitations

21. Analysis • Transportation • Export to Transportation Modeling • Air Quality • Based on Transportation Modeling output • Greenhouse Gasses • Building type, location, service provider • Resource Consumption • Discouragement impacts • Other summarization • Population Distribution • Accessibility/Economic Activity • Using accessibility/travel times to core areas

22. Reports • Generated in MS Excel • Metadata • Land Consumption • Demand: Acres and Cells • Allocated: Acres and Cells • Underallocation: Acres and Cells • Discouragement Impacts • Acres of each discouragement consumed by land use type

23. Reports

24. How much development is happening where? New population centers New Employment centers Zonal Summary

25. Zonal Summaries • Calculate by Zone: • # Acres of each land use • # of HH in each residential type • # of residents in each residential type • # of employees in each employment type • # of square feet in building space for each employment type

26. Climate Zone Determines Demand for Energy Service Provider Determines Type of Energy Energy Mix CO2E generation No embodied CO2 calculations Calculations by land use type, climate zone, service provider, subarea Greenhouse Gas

27. Acknowledgements California Department of Transportation US Department of Agriculture Federal Highway Administration

28. Questions? Nathaniel Roth GIS Programmer/Analyst Information Center for the Environment University of California, Davis neroth@ucdavis.edu or (530) 752-1331