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2. Acknowledgements. Co-funded by the Department of Conservation as part of the National Coastal Policy Statement reviewDOCTheo StephensVicki CarruthersLandcare ResearchJames BarringerIan LynnMalcolm McLeodGary BarkerDeb WilsonSusan Walker. 3. 4. Introduction. RMA mandates protection of coastal environments under Section 6
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1. 1 Using Scenarios to Estimate the Condition and Trend of Coastal Environments Daniel Rutledge, Craig Briggs, and Robbie Price
Manaaki Wheuna Landcare Research, Hamilton
Feathers to Fur
New Zealand Ecological Society Annual Conference
Christchurch, 22 November 2007
2. 2 Acknowledgements Co-funded by the Department of Conservation as part of the National Coastal Policy Statement review
DOC
Theo Stephens
Vicki Carruthers
Landcare Research
James Barringer
Ian Lynn
Malcolm McLeod
Gary Barker
Deb Wilson
Susan Walker
3. 3
4. 4 Introduction RMA mandates protection of coastal environments under Section 6 – “matters of national importance”
National Coastal Policy Statement – preserve natural character of the coastal environment including but not limited to
Significant vegetation & habitats
Landscapes, seascapes, & landforms
Integrity, functioning, and resilience
Coastal Policy Statement Review: Should biodiversity be considered separately and distinctively from natural character?
Neither the RMA or National Coastal Policy Statement provide an explicit definition of “coastal environment”
Regional coastal policy statements vary widely in their interpretation & definition of coastal environments, with some advocating a case-by-case definition given the complex nature of such environments
5. 5 Objectives Develop 3–5 scenarios delineating the extent of terrestrial coastal environments in New Zealand
Evaluate condition and trends based on
Condition – Land Cover Database (LCDB)
Protection – Protected Areas Network Database (PAN-NZ)
Representativeness – LENZ Environments
Trend – LCDB 1 to LCDB 2
Report by New Zealand, regions, and districts
Estimate risk to coastal environments from continued urban development
6. 6 Methods Generated 5 scenarios using different combinations of input data
Combinatorial Analysis
Combined
Coastal Environment Scenarios
LCDB
PAN-NZ
LENZ
Region & District boundaries
Produced a combined spatial data layer and accompanying database with records of all unique combinations of input data
Analysed condition and trend for each of the 5 scenarios using the resulting combinatorial data layer and associated database.
7. 7 LINZ Coastline Distance Buffers
8. 8 DEM Elevation Buffers
9. 9 LRI CoastalSoils Soils scientists identified soils in LRI formed wholly or partly by coastal processes
Unsupervised search found both coastal and inland soils
Refined search by only including soils with specified distances to the coast
10. 10 Scenario 1
11. 11 Scenario 2
12. 12 Scenario 3
13. 13 Scenario 4
14. 14 Scenario 5
15. 15
16. 16 Combinatorial Analysis
17. 17 LCDB Indigenous Land Cover
18. 18 National Results
19. 19 National Results (con’t) In all five scenarios at least half of remaining indigenous land cover not legally protected (INP) occurred in threatened environments
INP in coastal environments was 1.5 to 3.2 times more likely to occur in threatened environments than less reduced and/or better protected environments compared with a 1:1 ratio nationally
Five indigenous land cover classes dominated INP in coastal environments:
broadleaved indigenous hardwoods
coastal sands and gravel
herbaceous saline vegetation
indigenous forest
manuka and/or kanuka
None of the five scenarios showed significant change (gain or loss) in INP from LCDB1c to LCBD2
20. 20 Regional Results
21. 21 Regional Results (con’t)
22. 22 Regional Results (con’t) Total area of INP in a scenario by region was generally proportional to the size of the total scenario area
Remaining INP in threatened environments tended to occur more in Acutely and Chronically Threatened environments.
23. 23 District Results Total area of INP by district ranged from 0 ha (not part of coastal environment)to 20 243 (Far North District, Scenario 4)
15 districts had no area in INP across all five scenarios: Central Otago, Gore, Hamilton City, Kawerau, Mackenzie, Matamata-Piako, Palmerston North, Queenstown Lakes, Rotorua, Ruapehu, South Waikato, Stratford, Taupo,Upper Hutt, Waipa
Most districts had less than 1 000 ha total area in INP remaining (59 - Scenario 1;61 -Scenario 2; 54 - Scenario 3; 51 - Scenario 4; and 54 - Scenario 5)
Percent of total area in INP remaining in threatened environments varied from 0% including the 15 districts mentioned above with no INP to 100%
Remaining INP in threatened environments tended to occur more in Acutely Threatened environments and then divided evenly between Chronically Threatened and At Risk environments
Total area of INP was unusually high in At Risk Environments in Far North(3495–10 565 ha), Kaipara (1134–37 650 ha), and Rodney districts (1328–3330 ha) compared with other districts across all five scenarios.
24. 24 District Results
25. 25 Urban Change Analysis
26. 26 Conclusions Scenario generation was a useful method for evaluating a range of possible coastal environments but was more technically challenging than anticipated
Condition of coastal environments based on LCDB appeared to be sensitive to the definition/delineation of the coastal environment
Coastal environments had relatively high percentages of land recovering from past disturbance based on the amount of early successional land cover (i.e. broadleaved indigenous hardwoods and manuka and/or kanuka) reported
A more complete analysis of condition than provided by LCDB would likely result in the overall condition of coastal environments being lower than reported
27. 27 Conclusions Protection status of coastal environments appeared to be insensitive to the definition/delineation of the coastal environment
Coastal environments were overall more poorly protected compared to non-coastal environments nationally
Risk and consequences of further loss to remaining indigenous vegetation (protected or unprotected) is higher in coastal environments than nationally
LCDB1c to LCDB2 in its current form appear incapable of detecting the types of change (e.g., low density urban development) occurring in many coastal environments
Scenarios and the broad-scale datasets used to generate them provide the ability to undertake broad-scale analyses that can help inform conservation management and call attention to data gaps
28. 28 Thank you!
29. 29 Scenario Statistics