Making the Web equal Profit Surfing for Genetics

1. Making the Web equal ProfitSurfing for Genetics Dorian Garrick & Mark Enns Department of Animal Sciences Colorado State University

2. Surfing for Genetics • Surfing for Convenience • Surfing to Support Decisions based on your own Customized Computations

3. Convenience • Finding a Particular Bull/Breed/Breeder • Sort Orders • Finding extreme bulls for some attribute • Filters • Finding bulls with particular combinations of attributes • Up-to-date EPD and ACC information

4. Customized Computations • Interpretation of Threshold Traits • Interactions between ERTs • Assessment of Nutritional Implications • Assessment of Financial Implications • Perhaps also Economic Implications • Accounting for Risk • Multibreed Evaluation & Crossbreeding

5. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 50 lb W W D = 20 lb

6. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 50 lb W W D = 20 lb Herd 1 Average 500 lb Average 530

7. Interpretation of a Typical EPD W W D = 50 lb W W D = 20 lb Herd 1 Average 500 lb Average 530 Herd 2 Average 550 lb Average 580

8. Interpretation of Threshold Traits • Calving Ease EPD • Stayability EDP • Heifer Pregnancy EPD

9. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Difficult to get pregnant Easy to get pregnant Average

10. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Difficult to get pregnant Easy to get pregnant Average Suppose 20% heifers are open And 80% heifers are pregnant

11. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Pregnant Heifers Heifers not in calf 20% Difficult to get pregnant Easy to get pregnant Average

12. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Pregnant Heifers Heifers not in calf 20% Truncn pt = 0.84s Threshold

13. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Pregnant Heifers Heifers not in calf 20% Truncn pt = 0.84s 0.38

14. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate Pregnant Heifers Heifers not in calf 20% Truncn pt = 0.84s 12% Truncn pt = 0.84 +0.38/1.17=1.165 Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17 0.38

15. Underlying Scores to Preg Rate 10% Truncn pt = 1.28s 5.5% Truncn pt = 1.28 +0.38/1.17=1.605 Phenotypic s.d. = 1.17 0.38

16. Sensitive to the Average • An underlying EPD of 0.38 for heifer pregnancy would increase pregnancy rate • By 8.0% if average pregnancy rate is 80% • By 4.5% if the average is 90% • Phenotypic “interpretation” of underlying threshold scores depends upon the mean • Published values are at a mean of 50%

17. Solution • Publish values that are hard to interpret • OR Publish tables of EPDs relevant to different average levels of performance • Calving Ease: • First Calf: 75, 80, 85, 90, 95% • Mixed Age: 95, 99% • Stayability: 40, 45, 50, 55, 60% • Heifer Pregnancy: 75, 80, 85, 90, 95%

18. Solutions (cont) • OR Use web-based decision support • User defined average levels of performance • Compute the • number of pregnant vs open heifers • number of easy vs difficult calvings • Likely age structure of the herd • Number of replacement heifers required • Number of cull yearlings and mixed age cows

19. Suppose our goal is incr sale wt W W D = 20 lb W W D = 50 lb Base+30 lb Base

20. Interactions between ERTs • WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) • gives +30 lb weanlings

21. Interactions between ERTs • WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) • gives +30 lb weanlings • gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd

22. Interactions between ERTs • WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) • gives +30 lb weanlings • gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd • Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb

23. Interactions between ERTs • WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) • gives +30 lb weanlings • gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd • Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb • Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb

24. Interactions between ERTs • WWD EPD + 30 lb (all other EPDs equal) • gives +30 lb weanlings • gives +22 lb weanling sale wt “per cow” in a “typical” self-replacing herd • Increasing ST +8 will give another +8 lb • Increasing HPG +12 will give another + 3lb • Increasing CED +11 will give another +1 lb

25. Interactions between ERTs • Many ERT interact in a system context • Total sale weight at weaning is altered by WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME (plus BW & YWT) • The impact of any one EPD on the change in sale weight depends upon all the other EPDs and the average levels of performance

26. Assessment of Nutritional (& other input) Implications • Feed requirements are influenced by the • Expected maintenance requirements • Expected requirements for gain • Deviation from our expectations (known as residual feed intake or RFI) • Changing any of WWD, WWM, STAY, HPG, CED, CEM, ME, BW, YW will alter whole herd feed requirements

27. Assessment of Financial Implications • Changes in profit can be calculated from change in income × prices change in expenses × costs • Straightforward (but tedious) arithmetic • Prices & Costs can be obtained on a financial basis or an economic basis • What is the cost of feed in an extensive cow-calf grazing operation?

28. Economic Cost of Feed • Feed “cost” can be calculated from its “opportunity” cost • Measure of what net income would be given up if you had less feed (and less cows) • Can be calculated from comparing the system profit of two herds of alternative genotypes with different stocking rates such that each consume the same amount of feed

29. Solutions • Leave it to bull buyers to struggle thru facts & calculations • OR put it all together via the web Website ert.agsci.colostate.edu

32. Current Philosophical Approach Perturbed Situation Base Situation Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls X Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

35. Current Philosophical Approach Perturbed Situation Base Situation Current Cow Herd (EPD) Chosen Bulls X Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls Daughter (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Base mean Performance) X Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

36. Current Philosophical Approach Perturbed Situation Base Situation Current Cow Herd (EPD) Chosen Bulls X Current (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & Performance) Like Merit Bulls Daughter (equilibrium) Cow Herd (EPD & base mean Performance) Like Merit Bulls X X Perturbed Cow-calf outputs & inputs Base Cow-calf outputs & inputs

38. Accounting for Risk Consider the following three bulls Bull #prog Acc Profit Lima 30 0.5 to 0.6 $908 Sierra 240 0.7 to 0.8 $729 Bravo 3700 0.8 to 0.95 $648

39. Accounting for Risk • On average, true EPD is equally likely to be greater or lesser than published • ACC allows us to quantify the extent to which the estimate may vary from true • Considering just BW, WW, YW, Milk, ME and not (in this example) CED, CETM, HPG, ST we can compute many possible “realizations” of each bull

40. Extra Profit per 30 daughter-years 3700 progeny $648

41. Accounting for Risk 3700 progeny 240 progeny $729

42. Accounting for Risk 3700 progeny 240 progeny 30 progeny $908

43. Solution • Publish an “expected change” table • OR provide web options for quantifying risk (prototype available this Fall)

44. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding *A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs

45. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding #Angus Base *A1 & S3 are breed average EPDs

46. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding

47. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding

48. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding

49. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding

50. Multibreed Evaluation & Xbreeding