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Orange Juice Stimulus Plan

Orange Juice Stimulus Plan Presented to the Florida Citrus Commission January 21, 2009 Florida Orange-Juice Availability, Movement and Inventory 3 Florida Orange-Juice Availability, Movement and Inventory Changes Necessary to Reduce Expected Carry-out 3

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Orange Juice Stimulus Plan

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  1. Orange Juice Stimulus Plan Presented to the Florida Citrus CommissionJanuary 21, 2009

  2. Florida Orange-Juice Availability, Movement and Inventory 3

  3. Florida Orange-Juice Availability, Movement and Inventory Changes Necessary to Reduce Expected Carry-out 3

  4. DRY GROCERY DEPARTMENT 13 WEEKS ENDING DEC 27, 08 UNIT BASIS (000)

  5. DAIRY DEPARTMENT13 WEEKS ENDING DEC 27, 08UNIT BASIS (000)

  6. Refrigerated Juices and Drinks52 WEEKS ENDING DEC 27, 08UNIT BASIS (000)

  7. Movement Enhancement Scenario

  8. Top 3 NFC – Price per Gallon *Regular Price = Non-Promo Price. Promo Price = Price with All Promos (including TPR). Source: Nielsen Homescan (Walmart) and Scanning Data (Grocery) through 12/20/08.

  9. Top 3 Recon – Price per Gallon *Regular Price = Non-Promo Price. Promo Price = Price with All Promos (including TPR). Source: Nielsen Homescan (Walmart) and Scanning Data (Grocery) through 12/20/08.

  10. Private Label Recon – Price per Gallon *Regular Price = Non-Promo Price. Promo Price = Price with All Promos (including TPR). Source: Nielsen Homescan (Walmart) and Scanning Data (Grocery) through 12/20/08.

  11. Total OJ Trends All Outlets + Walmart % Change % Sold on Promo

  12. Movement Enhancement Scenario

  13. Trend Report: Consumer Awareness/Attitudes Regarding Orange Juice Pricing Presented to the Florida Citrus Commission January 21, 2009

  14. Background • Research Objective • FDOC Staff/Agencies implemented research study to • Measure economic affect on purchase behavior • Gauge value perception of orange juice

  15. Background • Methodology • National quantitative • Via Opinion Dynamics • Sample (N) = 500 • Timing – Dec 08/Jan 09

  16. Summary of Findings

  17. Awareness of Price Changes • Awareness of Food Prices • 90% of respondents noticed an increase in food prices at grocery • Awareness of Citrus Prices • Aided, only 47% of respondents noticed an increase in orange juice prices

  18. Awareness of Price Changes • Awareness of Food Prices • 90% of respondents noticed an increase in food prices at grocery • Awareness of Citrus Prices • Aided, only 47% of respondents noticed an increase in orange juice prices • Key Takeaways • Consumer perception of orange juice prices may be affected by overall food increases

  19. Impact of Price Changes • Behavioral Changes • The 47% who noticed an increase in the price of orange juice are taking steps to deal with it

  20. Impact of Price Changes • Behavioral Changes • The 47% who noticed an increase in the price of orange juice are taking steps to deal with it • I am looking for store deals/promotions 27% • I am buying store brands 16% • I am buying less orange juice 14% • I am shopping at super centers 10%

  21. Impact of Price Changes • Behavioral Changes • The 47% who have noticed an increase in the price of OJ are taking steps to deal with it • I am looking for store deals/promotions 27% • I am buying store brands 16% • I am buying less orange juice 14% • I am shopping at super centers 10% • Key Takeaways • Sustaining promotional activity is critical • Retailers and consumers alike have a renewed focus on private label

  22. Impact on Purchase Intent • Impact of economy on orange juice purchase • 69% report no change • Maintaining buying rate

  23. Impact on Purchase Intent • Impact of economy on orange juice purchase • 69% report no change • Maintaining buying rate • Key reasons for continuing to buy orange juice • Nutritious and healthy beverage 38% • One simple thing to stay healthy 19% • Refreshing 10% • Good for quick energy 02%

  24. Impact on Purchase Intent 57% • Impact of economy on orange juice purchase • 69% report no change • Maintaining buying rate • Key reasons for continuing to buy orange juice • Nutritious and healthy beverage 38% • One simple thing to stay healthy 19% • Refreshing 10% • Good for quick energy 02% • Top two drivers are key elements of the DOC message strategy

  25. Perceived Value • Which one of the following beverages do you feel is the best value for the money? • Orange juice noted as the best value for the money • Apple followed orange juice • Cranberry and Grape were third and fourth, respectively

  26. Next Steps Continue to track actual/perceived impact of price and the economic environment on consumer buying behavior Leverage integrated marketing programs to underscore the value of OJ

  27. Run Origami Optimizer How should an additional $5m be invested?What will it pay back to growers? 2008-09 base grower benefit is $46.8m 2008-09 base spend is $12.9m 2008-09 base demand generated is 80m SSEG 2008-09 base BCR is 3.6

  28. Set Constraints Stimulus spend level +$5m vs. 2008-09 base Allocate stimulus spend to maximize grower impact

  29. Return to Optimizer Home Constrain non-TV spending increases to reflect strategic fit and limits on scale

  30. Result: +39% spend, +26% demand and +27% grower impact Run Optimizer Expand to see optimal allocation

  31. $5m stimulus generates grower benefit of $12.4m… BCR is 2.49 Stimulus generates demand of 21m SSEG Optimal allocation of $5m stimulus

  32. Orange Juice Stimulus Plan Program Recommendation “The most successful people are those who are good at Plan B." James Yorke Domestic Marketing Team

  33. Current Orange Juice Marketing Programs 08-09 Media & Program Budget$14,015,726

  34. Orange Juice Stimulus Plan Objective Accelerate orange juice movement to relieve excess inventory Priorities Immediate focus on April – September Television Restore April/May/June Strengthen July/August/September Increase presence at retail Flexibility ‘Back end’ of the plan Approximately $2 million Budget Approximately $7,000,000

  35. Considerations ShelfVision ShelfTalk Shelf TakeOne Freezer ShelfTalk FloorTalk Carts Cinema Television Public Relations FSI Sunday magazines Parade, American Profile Coupons Walmart.com Walmart TV In store radio LifeClinic Brochures PR/retail joint programs Online

  36. Recommendations

  37. Television AMJ Commit additional $2,785,124 Incremental/Total TRPs: 465/813 New Reach & Frequency: 80%/10.2x JAS Commit additional $765,000 Incremental/New Total TRPs: 145/848 Reach & Frequency: 80%/10.6x Near historic levels Real stimulus, weights not scene since 04-05 National buy

  38. Walmart TelevisionTargeted Retail All WMSC stores – 2450 Nielsen monitored 2 flights – March and August Spring holidays Back to school 12-15 flatscreen televisions per store Dairy/Produce One hour loop 5 - :30s or 10 - :15s Modify current spot. Use Selleck voiceover. Impressions: 71 million/month

  39. Walmart.comTargeted Retail Lots of traffic 35/40 million visitors/month April - September AMJ Banner ads over entire site Product page content (integrate with key messages) JAS Banner ads Product page content Video Walmart Wire – Push email newsletter 9,000,000 distribution Custom content

  40. In Store RadioTargeted Retail 2 flights – March and August Spring holidays Back to school 11,000 stores A&P, Pathmark, Kroger, Safeway, Winn Dixie, Meijer, Albertsons, Ingles, SweetBay, Wegmanns, Shoprite, etc. Expands retailer reach 2 – :30s per hour Selleck voiceover Impressions: 720 million/month

  41. LifeClinicTargeted Retail Blood pressure machines Tested and proven WMSC test v control = +28% lift 4 flights – April thru August 6,400 stores All WMSC, all current FDOC call list Secondary location in pharmacy Custom message Panel plus take ones with orange juice message Refresh look and messages Complements FDOC brochures in dairy/refrigerated areas

  42. Orange Juice BrochuresTargeted Retail 4 flights – April thru August Complements blood pressure machines in pharmacy Custom messages Cold & flu, heart health, general health Refresh look and messages Target 6,400 stores All WMSC, all current FDOC call list

  43. Stimulus Flowchart Incremental Orange Juice Programs Incremental Spend - $7,059,283 New Program Budget - $21,075,009

  44. Millward Brown

  45. Next Steps • Complete message testing • Identify top performing health and wellness copy points using all elements of the marketing mix • Importance, believability and motivation • Results in January 2009 • Script development in February 2009

  46. Request Approval to Proceed

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