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Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot. Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans.

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Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

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  1. Risk Assessment Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin NIDIS Pilot Carly Jerla Bureau of Reclamation Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln

  2. Components of Successful Drought Mitigation Plans • Monitoring, early warning, and prediction • Foundation of a drought mitigation plan • Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers • Risk and impact assessment • Who and what is at risk and why? • Mitigation and response • Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts • Programs and actions during drought events Most drought plans contain only the monitoring and response components.

  3. Risk Assessment Purpose • To identify those sectors, population groups, or regions most at risk from drought, most probable impacts, and mitigation actions that will reduce impacts to future events.

  4. Western Drought Coordination Council How to Reduce Drought Risk Preparedness and Mitigation Working Group March 1998 Principal Authors: Cody Knutson, National Drought Mitigation Center Mike Hayes, National Drought Mitigation Center Tom Phillips, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf

  5. Components of Drought Risk Assessment Hazard Risk Vulnerability = x (natural event) (social factors) • Where does the water come from? • Who uses the water?

  6. Hazard Assessment(Understanding Drought Characteristics) • Review of all available climate resources • Historical analyses: frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extent • Temporal trends • Review available natural resources • Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks, groundwater, etc… • Water use characteristics

  7. Vulnerability Assessment • Impact Assessment • Social • Environmental • Economic • Causal Assessment • Temporal Trends

  8. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Colorado • Municipal Water • Wildfire Protection • Agricultural Industry • Tourism • Wildlife • Economic Impacts • Energy Loss • Health

  9. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Nebraska • Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife • Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy New Mexico • Agriculture • Drinking Water, Health, and Energy • Wildlife and Wildfire • Tourism and Economic Impact

  10. Impact Assessment Subcommittees Hopi Nation • Range and Livestock • Agriculture • Village Water Supplies • Environmental Health

  11. ChallengesRisk: not all impacts are equal

  12. Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska LEGEND vulnerability Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland Low Low-to-Moderate Moderate Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27 Spatial Resolution: 200 m High

  13. Risk and Impact Lessons • Stakeholders • Reduces conflicts between water users • Promotes support • Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk • Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time) • Look Back and Look Ahead • Identify particular baselines • Triggers for decision-making

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