Status: Criterion 5—Maintenance of forest contribution to global carbon cycles

1. Status: Criterion 5—Maintenance of forest contribution to global carbon cycles Linda S. Heath James E. Smith USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station Durham, NH, USA Ken Skog (Indicator 28) USFS, FPL, Madison, WI Technical Workshop on the Refinement of the MP Criteria 5 Indicators, 5-6 April, 2005, Atlanta, GA

2. ATMOSPHERE SOIL Nonforest Soil Imports/ Exports Forest sector carbon pools and flows Growth decay decay Removals STANDING DEAD HARVESTED CARBON BIOMASS Above and Below Mortality Recycling processing Harvest residue Litterfall, Mortality Treefall decay burning DOWN DEAD WOOD FOREST FLOOR PRODUCTS disposal burning Humification burning ENERGY Decomposition LANDFILLS Land use change Erosion

3. Indicators 26. Total forest ecosystem biomass and C pool, and if appropriate, by forest type, age class, and successional stages. (Stock) 27. Contribution of forest ecosystems to the total global C budget, including absorption and release of C. (Change in C; flux) 28. Contribution of forest products to the global C budget. State Department: Need to be consistent with UNFCCC estimates.

4. Basic relationships between indicators • Ind. 26. Carbon stock = Carbon/Area x Area • Ind 27= Ind 26(time2)-Ind 26(time1) • Ind 28=f(Removals)(utilization rates)(decay rates)

5. Conterminous US Forest C pools (Mt), 1997, by broad forest types and regeneration status 30,000 25,000 20,000 Carbon pool (Mt) 15,000 Aboveground Belowground 10,000 Soil 5,000 0 N P N P N P N P Coniferous Broad- Mixture Nonstocked/ leaved Chaparral N=Natural regeneration, P=Plantation Indicator 26

6. Conterminous US Forest C, Inds 26&27

7. Net C changes in harvested wood pools (Mt/yr) for the US Indicator 28 Includes net imports

8. National GHG reporting to UNFCCC •Annual Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Sinks Inventories (1990-present) (US Environmental Protection Agency) - All sectors, we do forest estimates •Every 5 years, summary national communication • State Dept. Public involvement

9. US forest C stock change, 2003 12% of total U.S. CO2 emissions DRAFT: Smith and Heath for 2005 EPA GHG Inventory

10. Conform to Everimproving International Reporting Guidelines • IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1994-1996) Reference, Workbook, Reporting • IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (2001-2003) • IPCC Revision Guidelines (2004-2006) ? volumes. AFOLU: Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use •  Nations need to be consistent with the methodology in the guidelines

11. Approach for current Crit 5 estimates • Use Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) inventory data coupled with a modeling approach. • Data from 120,000 field plots, collected by the USDA FS Forest Inventory & Analysis. • Models include equations to convert tree measurements to carbon, equations to estimate non-tree carbon, to a complex modeling system to track projections of C • Model tracks carbon through harvested wood products (Skog and Nicholson 1998)

12. Need to do better… • Units (that is, metric vs english vs mixed) • Soil and belowground carbon • Clear definitions of forest, forest mgmt • Alaska, Hawaii, Territory coverage? • Gross changes, not just net? • Harvested wood • Criteria to choose between estimates from different approaches? • Noncarbon greenhouse gases

13. Methods to determine estimates • Field measurements with biometric eqns. • Flux towers/Data fusion • Models: Ecological/ biogeographical/ biogeochemical/biophysical • Default IPCC approach—perhaps default 1605b approach • Uncertainty analysis • Carbon in Harvested Wood: Modeling—imports/exports

14. UNFCCC Reporting – still evolving • Consistency • Moving toward full land representation (forest, cropland, grassland, wetland, settlement, other) • Be able to report subcategories (nonforest becoming forest, forest remaining forest) • Uncertainties required • Key source analysis • Transparency, verification, accuracy, precision, cost

15. Painted Hills, OR