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What they don’t teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School

What they don’t teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School. Bill Hooper Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. ASQ CSSMBB, CSSBB, CRE, CQE, CMQ. So what do they teach you in LSS school. Computer generated analysis and design. A language only a few can understand.

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What they don’t teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School

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  1. What they don’t teach you at Lean and Six Sigma School Bill Hooper Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. ASQ CSSMBB, CSSBB, CRE, CQE, CMQ

  2. So what do they teach you in LSS school Computer generated analysis and design A language only a few can understand Statistics! Statistics! Statistics! 4-6 months to get results 30 days for the rebound

  3. How many understand the following? • Fractional Factorial Design • Factors: 8 Resolution: IV • Runs: 67 Replicates: 2 Fraction: 1/8 • Blocks: 1 Center pts (total): 3 • Design Generators: F = ABC, G = ABD, H = BCDE

  4. Dr. George Box’s analysis Typical LSS courses teach to What is typically needed

  5. What if we taught statistical based process improvement to the 95% that need it and don’t get it?

  6. The real Customer

  7. Un-geeking the teaching process • Hypothesis theory • Gauge R and R • Probability theory • Capability Analysis • Design of Experiments

  8. Hypothesis Theory – Un-Geeking What is an Alpha error? Rejection of the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is true. What is a Beta error? Failure to reject the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false.

  9. What the jury found guilty Not guilty He did it What really happened He did not do it

  10. Alpha vs. Beta Errors Power Beta Error Alpha Error

  11. Reduction in Variation

  12. Probability Theory – Multiplication principle P(A and B) = P(A) X P(B/A) Ugly!

  13. ….but what if this could be explained by card magic?

  14. Probability of a pair of kingsP(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) =.5 % or 5 out of a thousand

  15. … and on a control chart

  16. So what to do with the process? Nothing!

  17. Probability of drawing three kingsP(K and K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two)= .02% or 2 out of a 10,000

  18. … and on a control chart

  19. ….. And what should happen?

  20. What if that was process flowed?

  21. What if that was probability plotted by group exercise?

  22. Probability of drawing four kingsP(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three)= .0000036 or 3.6 PPM

  23. … and on a control chart

  24. What is easier to learn P(K-K-K-K) = P(first King) x P(second King given the first King) x P(third King given the first two) x P(fourth given the first three)= .0000036 or 3.6 PPM or

  25. Design of Experiments What if we could all learn the basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE? What if interaction effect was understood by everyone?

  26. Reverse hand experiment (or the solution may not be obvious and it may hurt)

  27. A very simple but effective DOE Bowl Break Bowl wrinkle

  28. The basics of a 2 level – 3 factor DOE Breaks Bowl Wrinkle Deck Wrinkles Possible sweet spot

  29. Additional runs to define sweet spot

  30. …and it does work

  31. So one more time – the reverse hand experiment

  32. Probability theory/Capability Analysis Probability Theory Hypothesis/Design of Experiments Hypothesis/Probability Theory

  33. How to make it work – how to make it stick

  34. Finally Probability of you beating my 4 kings : .0000005 or .5 PPM

  35. Bill Hooper Principle Engineer, Elkay Manufacturing President, William Hooper Consulting Inc. Visit his website at www.williamhooperconsulting.org To learn more about innovative techniques to teach statistics and process improvement methodology.

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