The global implementation programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics

1. Agenda item 3a The global implementation programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics Herman Smith UNSD/DESA Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA, Kiev, 29 November – 2 December 2011

2. Outline of presentation • Introduction • 2008 SNA Implementation Programme • Short term indicators • Implementation tools • Monitoring the SNA implementation

3. SNA implementation - Impediments • Insufficient staff and training. • For exhaustive coverage of economic activities – data collection mechanism and supporting infrastructure need to be improved • Quality and policy relevance of basic economic and macroeconomic statistics are not well promoted • Lack of modern management, ICT infrastructure in the NSOs • Lack of coordination between TAs providing country, regional and international agencies • Reference manuals and compilation guidance not easily accessible.

4. Statistical Production Process Framework • The framework provides a structure for the SNA implementation programme to address and reinforce both • statistical institutional infrastructure and • the collection and reporting of statistics.

5. Registers and Frames Surveys Integration Framework Dissemination Institutional Setting Information, Communication Technology (ICT) Management and internal policy Institutional arrangements Statistical Production Process Framework Structure for organizing the information base based on a stylized statistical production model

6. Implementation programme • UNSC in Feb 2010 supported the implementation programme and encouraged countries to develop their own programmes of implementation • The Implementation Programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics represents a global statistical initiative • UNSD conduct series of seminars with RC to align regional and global implementation programmes

7. Objective of the Global Statistical Initiative To assist countries in developing the statistical and institutional capacity to: (a) Make the conceptual change over from the 1993 SNA to the 2008 SNA (b) Improve the scope, detail and quality of the national accounts and supporting economic statistics.

8. Principles of the global initiative The efficiency and sustainability of the initiative rest on the agreed principles of the implementation strategy: (a) strategic planning (b) coordination, monitoring and reporting (c) improving statistical systems

9. Elements to operationalise the initiative (a) Use of National Strategies for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) as the strategic planning framework (b) The programme information structure built around the statistical production process, scope and compliance for the national accounts and supporting economic statistics (c) The modalities of statistical capacity building through training and technical cooperation, publication of manuals and handbooks, research and advocacy (d) The stages of implementation leading to the change over to the 2008 SNA.

10. Strategic planning framework Strategic planning is a key principle in mobilizing political and financial support for investment in statistics The NSDS is the most widely used strategic planning framework to connect national development objectives with a programme of work for statistical capacity-building

11. Why a strategic approach? • To align the 2008 SNA country programme with national policy priorities and regional requirements • Consultative process is system wide • Resources are limited • Piece meal approach is not cost effective • Donor coordination is critical

12. The programme information structure To facilitate the coordination, monitoring and reporting on the SNA implementation in the multi-stakeholder environment. • Frameworks • Minimum Required Data Set (MRDS) based on UN-NAQ • IMF GDDS and SDDS • Report on the • statistical process • data quality

13. Implementation stages • Three stages • Each country will determine the duration of the various stages. However, it is expected that from 2014 onwards, many Member States will change over to the 2008 SNA • Stage I • Review of strategic framework and detailing of national and regional implementation programmes

14. Stage I - Review • Statement of strategy – Development of an economic statistics programme for compiling the required scope and detail of the National Accounts to inform policy makers • Diagnosis of current situation – Assessment of the national statistical system to support the national accounts compilation • Development of strategic vision for national accounts and supporting statistics shared among stakeholders • Develop implementation plan based on agreed priorities with a minimum set of core indicators

15. Stage II - Adaption & III - Application • Stage II. Adaptation of classification frameworks, business registers and frames, surveys, administrative data sources and information technology infrastructure; and • Stage III. Application of adapted frameworks and source data, backcasting and changeover to 2008 SNA.

16. Short term indicators and the SNA A series on meetings at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 in reaction to economic and financial crisis 2008 SNA the overarching framework for economic statistics, able to incorporates measurement issues arising from the financial crises The availability of structural and annual data tell us about the past Policy makers need information about the present to facilitate more timely policy responses

17. Short term indicators and the SNA Need to improve the availability, periodicity and timeliness of short term indicators in accessible and analytically useful formats Data collection practises need to be adapted to facilitate the dissemination of short term indicators Short term indicators are also relevant for expanding the scope and detail of the national accounts

18. Work on short-term economic statistics – 4 themes Rapid Estimates Business Cycle Composite Indicators Tendency Surveys Data Template and Analytical Indicators

19. Work on short-term economic statistics Data Template and Analytical Indicators Establish an internationally accepted data and metadata template for short-term economic indicators To develop a guide on the data template and reference metadata structure to assist the compilation of the short term indicators Explore feasibility of centralized national data hubs Using modern data sharing and exchange techniques, such as SDMX and modern visualization tools for data dissemination and communication

20. Data template Purpose Economic monitor for macroeconomic surveillance Early warning signals and business cycle monitoring SNA compliant and compliant with other internationally accepted standards: BPM, prices, business statistics, etc.

21. Data template Scope 12 categories (national accounts, production, prices, markets (labor, real estate and financial markets) and sectors (government, financial, non-financial, household and external sector) Periodicity and timeliness (monthly and quarterly)

22. Data template Macro structure for 12 categories: Tier 1 (internationally accepted core set) Tier 2 and 3: strategic indicators (sectoral accounts and “new” indicators but less available) and country specific indicators Adaptable to specific sectoral policy needs: agriculture and rural development and industrial sector indicators Flexible for alternative groupings for policy purpose (e.g. housing sector, financial sector, household consumption, etc.)

23. Meta data structure Standard harmonized structure Short description (basic information for statistical indicator – at international level) Detailed description (SDMX format with structured methodological description –propose limited “chapters” at country level) Supporting internationally accepted statistical standards and country practices UN Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics Methodological gaps identified related to Data template (e.g. new order index, production index for construction)

24. National centralized data hubs Single access point in countries: standard internationally accepted data and meta data dissemination template of short term indicators (“Economic Monitor”) tool for improved accessibility of data tool for harmonization and improved comparability of statistics and indicators tool for standardization of data transmission

25. UNSC Discussions Member States encouraged to set up national central data hubs on voluntary basis with flexible time frame submit compilation practices and use of short-term economic indicators to Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics Incorporate programme on short term statistics with the 2008 SNA implementation programme

26. SNA implementation tools UNSD and other ISWGNA members have developed a number of tools to facilitate the SNA implementation Website Handbooks Knowledge Base Diagnostic tool Status of the NA

27. SNA implementation website To facilitate sharing of information UNSD developed a website with information supporting the implementation of the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics Website at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/nationalaccount/default.asp

29. National Accounts Handbooks • OECD handbooks on Measuring capital and intellectual property products. • World Bank handbooks on Introduction to SNA and SNA compilation guidance • Eurostat’s Essential SNA: Building the basics • UNSD national accounts handbook on Financial production stocks and flows, in collaboration with the ECB • UNSD handbooks on International guidelines on industrial and trade statistics

30. Knowledge Base on Economic Statistics and Macroeconomic Standards Provide a centralized repository of information on all aspects of methodology and best country practices for the collection, analysis and dissemination of all areas of economic statistics and macroeconomic standards Facilitate the international sharing and exchange of knowledge on economic statistics programmes as well as the provision of guidance to countries

32. Statistical System Information A tool to assist in developing the statement of strategy The statistical system information can be obtained from the web This tool brings together information available at various international organisations into a single framework

33. Statistical System Information

35. Diagnostics tool • Tool to assess the adequacy of the national statistical production process to support implementation of the 2008 SNA. • Self assessment of statistical prerequisites outlined in stages I and II of the 2008 SNA implementation programme. • Leads to developing a vision for improving the availability and quality of the economic statistics required for compilation of national accounts.

36. Diagnostics tool • The tool is based on the widely used CES Classification of Statistical Activities • The Classification provides a structured presentation of statistical activities aimed at • collecting, producing and disseminating data, • developing standards, • harmonization and implementation of statistics. • Statistical activities are organized in five statistical domains.

37. Diagnostic tool • Cross classify the statistical activities of domain 2and selected activities from domain 1 and 3 with domain 4 and 5 • This allows the assessment of economic activities in terms of • process, • organization and • managerial aspects of official statistics

38. Status of National Accounts and Supporting Economic Statistics Outline provides information on each of the economic indicators, together with the international recommendation for compiling the indicators. This allows the mapping of the data gaps revealed by the DT with the data needs to facilitate the development of a vision document on where to go.

39. Monitoring the 1993 SNA implementation • A set of six milestones to assess the scope of accounts compiled by countries; plus • three data sets • (a) minimum set of accounts that need to be compiled; • (b) a recommended set of accounts; and • (c) a desired set of accounts. • To assess the compliance with major 1993 SNA concepts a set of questions • The IMF quality assessment framework to assess the quality of the national accounts

40. Purpose of the milestones twofold To provide guidance to countries considering expanding the scope of their national accounts To serve as a monitoring instrument for measuring the level of national accounts development

41. Limitations of the milestones The milestones taken as the order in which additions to national accounts must be approached. The milestones make no reference to the detail of national accounts implementation The milestones make no reference to conceptual or quality issues

42. Required data sets • Three data sets to assess the scope of national accounts implementation according to the 1993 SNA • The minimum requirement data set (MRDS) - milestones 1 and 2. • The recommended data set - importance in assessing developments of an economy • The desired data set, which comprises useful data that should be compiled if possible • Report to UNSC an assessment of the MRDS based on the United Nations national accounts database.

43. Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA • The 1993 SNA scope and compliance measures are deemed to be adequate to also assess the scope and compliance for the 2008 SNA. • However • need for more timely information to facilitate appropriate policy responses • include quarterly national accounts as an option

44. Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA The MRDS now include: • quarterly accounts • nominal and volume measure of GDP by industry or by expenditure • integrated accounts until net lending for the total economy and the rest of the world. • annual institutional sector accounts until net lending • corporate, government, households and NPISH’s • quarterly compilation of these sectors is now recommended.

45. Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA • Recommended set include the annual compilation • Sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets and other changes in assets accounts • Desired set include the quarterly compilation • Sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets and other changes in assets accounts • The compliance questionnaire was adjusted to reflect the 2008 SNA concepts

46. Scope and compliance measures for the 2008 SNA • Report of the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts • Section VII. B. Guidelines for monitoring the implementation of the 2008 SNA. • Annex: Information system for assessing the progress of the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 • English: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc11/2011-6-NationalAccounts-E.pdf • Russian: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc11/2011-6-NationalAccounts-R.pdf

47. Thank You