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Global Warming Continued

Global Warming Continued. Some final clarifying thoughts. Time Resolution Problem. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/571_Lecture_3_Ice_Core_Note.pdf (a good source)

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Global Warming Continued

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  1. Global Warming Continued Some final clarifying thoughts

  2. Time Resolution Problem • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/571_Lecture_3_Ice_Core_Note.pdf (a good source) • Ice at depth is under lots of pressure and the annual layers all blend together; time resolution is therefore a function of depth • At depth, ice flows and shears so depth is not monotonically related to time

  3. The Lag Problem • What comes first, CO2 change or temperature change; evidence is limited by time resolution problem at depth (800-1200 years)

  4. Role of CO2 Variations • Does it trigger or regulate climate change? • Scientific data exists to equally support both claims • What does seem clear is that lower CO2 does lead to cooling but its easier for atmosphere to cool than warm and this is a strongly non-linear process that we do not scientifically fully understand.

  5. Most Importantly • There is no past climate record available to us with high time resolution (e.g. annual) that shows the climate when the CO2 level was 370 ppm.

  6. Possible Feedback Amplification • CO2 rises; lower atmosphere warms slightly  increased humidity at tropical latitudes  increased warming; This is the water vapor feedback loop (current situation) • Further CO2 buildup will then activate the phase lagged CO2 temperature response further elevating temperatures. • Effect is largest at high latitudes where most of the methane is stored in permafrost leading to methane amplified global warming. • This feedback scenario would operate over a timescale of about 200 years.

  7. Bottom Scientific Line • CO2 build up is real and increasing due to rising economies in India and China • No scientific link or theory is available to predict annualchanges in global temperature or sea surface temperature as a function of annual increase in CO2  we only know this relation on coarser timescales • We are probably in the more benign water vapor feedback loop now and therefore it will eventually (soon?) get much worse much faster

  8. Hurricanes as a Diagnostic? • Central pressure  directly related to SST • Duration indirectly related to SST • Frequency  not related to SST • Wind radius  non-linearly related to SST • Total Power estimate  best diagnostic but extremely difficult to measure

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