If carbon stocks are up, who gets the credit ? A practical method of distinguishing between human and natural factors.

1. If carbon stocks are up, who gets the credit? A practical method of distinguishing between human and natural factors. Miko Kirschbaum1 & Annette Cowie2 [Miko Kirschbaum@csiro.au] CRC for Greenhouse Accounting, Australia & 1CSIRO Forestry and Forest Products, Canberra 2State Forests of NSW, Sydney

2. How does biospheric carbon exchange differ from fossil-fuel emissions? Two key aspects: Reversibility Human control

3. Irreversibility of fossil-fuel emissions Carbon stocks Release Time (years)

4. Reversibility of biospheric net emissions - Max Sequester Carbon stocks Release Release - Min Time (years)

5. Full control of fossil-fuel emissions Carbon stocks Time (years)

6. Shared control of biospheric net emissions Max - Carbon stocks Min - Human Time (years)

7. Shared control of biospheric net emissions Natural Max - Natural Carbon stocks Natural Min - Human Time (years)

8. Shared control of biospheric net emissions Natural Max - Natural Average carbon Carbon stocks Natural Min - Human Time (years)

9. The Marrakech Accord “that accounting excludes removals resulting from: (a) elevated CO2 above pre-industrial level; (b) indirect nitrogen deposition; & (c) the dynamic effects of age structure resulting from activities and practices before 1990”

10. The Marrakech Accord The aim: to distinguish between “direct human” and “other” factors But it is very difficult to factor out the sum total of interacting “other” factors Easier to factor out the “direct human” factor

11. Alternative C accounting The ‘ACS’ scheme A - Average C - Carbon S - Stocks

12. Alternative C accounting

13. Alternative C accounting Kirschbaum et al. 2001

14. Alternative C accounting Delayed crediting Kirschbaum et al. 2001

15. Case studies

16. Canada Kurz and Apps 1999

17. Canada Kurz and Apps 1999

19. No land-use change Debit/credit for management changes that affect average carbon stocks Carbon credit for creating national parks

20. USA Birdsey and Heath 1995

21. Land abandonment is a land-use change, but occurred before 1990 Further land abandonment is eligible

22. New Zealand (1990) Maclaren 1996

23. Ford-Robertson, pers. comm.

24. Pre-1990 plantations do not count Post-1990 plantations count if the ramp-up is not yet completed

25. Australia • Production forests • Plantations • Land clearing • Vegetation thickening

26. Australia • Production forests as for Canada • Plantations as for New Zealand • Land clearing • Vegetation thickening

27. Land clearing • Clearing virgin forest • Clearing previously cleared land (with land-use change) • Cyclical re-clearing

28. NCAS 2002

29. Areas subject to land-use change, or intensification of land use, are counted Areas just re-cleared have no land-use change and are not counted

30. Vegetation thickening Burrows et al. 2002

31. Changed burning regime and grazing animals are land-use changes, but occurred before 1990.

32. Summary Biospheric carbon storage Is reversible Only partly under human control The ACS scheme is a practical way to factors out the human component

33. Thank you!