The Presidential Election 2008

1. The Presidential Election 2008

2. Basic facts you really should know • The general election campaign traditionally runs from the first Monday in September to the start of November – 9 weeks • The fortunes of the parties are tracked frequently through opinion polls • Features of the campaign: • Rallies by presidential and vice-presidential candidate • TV ads, both positive and negative • Live tv debates between presidential candidates and separately between vice-presidential candidates

3. Setting the scene • To win the presidency, a candidate must win 270 votes in the Electoral College. • McCain just had to hold onto the states Bush had won in 2004 to win • Obama needed all the Kerry states plus a further 19 electoral college votes

4. Two time-bombs for McCain • Wall Street collapses Meltdown Monday – Monday 15th September. McCain never recovered in the polls following this McCain kept reiterating ‘the fundamentals of the American economy are essentially sound’ Also, his campaign was bound to do better if the focus was on national security and terror – people trusted Obama more on the economy

5. McCain and Obama had contrasting strategies towards the economy: • McCain offered experience and leadership • Obama offered ‘real change’ and a detailed plan • Campaign can be summed up as man vs plan or change vs experience • When Bush put his $700m bail out package to Congress McCain made a mistake by temporarily suspending his campaign and going to Washington

6. 2. Choice of Sarah Palin as running mate • Rank and file Republicans were very excited by her • He had now solidified conservative support for his ticket • However, McCain had based his campaign on experience and this could no longer be the case • Only a minority of voters thought Palin was qualified to become President if anything happened to McCain • Palin was also going to alienate independents • McCain’s team had not properly checked Palin out

7. The role of the media • Most Americans get their news of the campaign from CNN or ABC daily • There are also political comment programmes such as ‘Meet the Press’. • There are chat shows like ‘Larry King live’. ‘Saturday Night Live’ featured a wicked impersonation of Palin • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAuRgxFfb3o

8. Political commercials • Candidates need to buy time • Some can be negative http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOrmOvHysdU Most during this campaign were not really nasty http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6reQLzgywzk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEehKNNMq_4 • However, Obama was able to out spend McCain plus his primary campaign had gone on longer so he got exposure then • McCain’s ads were considered to be more negative than Obama’s

9. Televised presidential debates • Are a traditional part of the campaign, usually 3 90 minute debates between presidential candidates and one 90-minute debate between vice presidential candidates • Often have a lot of hype, is a potential for gaffes but often are not hugely significant in shaping the outcome • An exception was 1980 debate between Reagan and Carter and Reagan again n 1984 • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px7aRIhUkHY • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoPu1UIBkBc

10. Rules of televised debates • 1. Style is more important than substance • E.g. Gore in 2000 kept rolling his eyes and interrupting Bush • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xFiHHdZkjU • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goDOmbdiT7w • 2. Verbal gaffes can be costly • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8rg9c4pUrg • 3. Good soundbites are helpful • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ff • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Up1kwoWSTkbFvKlWqE • Debates are more difficult for incumbents than for challengers • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It0Dtm1gFFQ

11. 2008 presidential debates • First presidential debate – was ‘podium’ style – quite formal and was on the topic of national security but some time went on the economy. Obama came across as more open • There was also clearly a generational difference, McCain referred to Reagan’s SDI, no-one under 40 would know what it was • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbyFL6hQ4sc • 38% judged Obama the winner, 24% judged McCain the winner • Second presidential debate – was ‘town hall’ style – see poll results for the first two debates • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riPkfUpjmHM • Final presidential debate – was a round table discussion. MCain was feisty and Joe the plumber was mentioned frequently • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq7yJh08VHU

12. The impact of televised debates • Evidence suggests they do more to CONFIRM what the voters feel than to change voters minds. • They might also help convert passive voters e.g. in 2004 Kerry pulled back 8% from Bush to make the race a dead heat after the debates • In recent years viewing figures have declined • In 2008 the figure was 45 million, however, 73 million tuned in to watch Palin vs Biden • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXJ4Dk33cCQ • In only 4 of the last 7 elections has the candidate judged to have won the debate gone on to win the election • However, debate performance seemed to be key to Obama’s surge in the polls in early October 2008