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Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia

International Training Course on Tropical Cyclone 5 – 16 December 2011, WMO RTC Nanjing, China. Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia. by: Mohd Khairudin Shaari Malaysian Meteorological Department. SCOPE. Introduction: Malaysia Malaysian Meteorological Department

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Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia

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  1. International Training Course on Tropical Cyclone 5 – 16 December 2011, WMO RTC Nanjing, China Tropical CycloneMonitoring And ForecastingIn Malaysia by: Mohd Khairudin Shaari Malaysian Meteorological Department

  2. SCOPE • Introduction: Malaysia • Malaysian Meteorological Department • General Climate of Malaysia • The Effect of Tropical Cyclone Towards Malaysia Weather • Tropical Cyclone Monitoring And Forecasting In Malaysia • MMD Early Warning System

  3. INTRODUCTION: MALAYSIA

  4. LOCATION OF MALAYSIA Region: Southeast AsiaCoordinates: 2°30'N 112°30'EArea: 329,847 km² Population: 27,730,000 people

  5. MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

  6. MALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (MMD) http://www.met.gov.my

  7. MMD Main Services Weather Forecast Seasonal and Long-Range Weather Outlook Weather Warning Marine Meteorological Forecast Aviation Meteorology Meteorological Observations Earthquake & Tsunami Weather Modification Environmental Studies Climate Agromet

  8. Central Forecast Office Division Central Forecast Office is responsible for weather monitoring and issuing the sea condition, weather forecast and warning to general public, mass media and private agencies

  9. GENERAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIA

  10. Severe Weather in Malaysia Inter-Monsoon (Apr-Mei & Sep-Okt) Nort-East Monsoon (Nov – Mac) Monsson Flood Flash Flood South West Monsoon (June–August) Strong Winds and Rough Seas Tropical Cyclone (May – Nov) Haze

  11. Three Types of Monsoon (based on the wind flow patterns) : • North East monsoon (Nov-March): • steady easterly or northeasterly winds of 10 to 20 knots prevail • surges of cold air from the north (cold surges) bring heavy rainfall to Malaysia • Malaysia experience more rainfall (east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia are mostly affected)

  12. Mean Streamline for November (NE Monsoon) 850hPa

  13. Mean Streamline for December (NE Monsoon) 850hPa

  14. South West monsoon (May-Sept): • the prevailing wind flow is generally southwesterly and light, below 15 knots • During the months of May to November, when TC frequently develop over the west Pacific and move westwards across the Philippines, southwesterly winds over the northwest coast of Sabah and Sarawak region may strengthen reaching 20 knots or more • tail effect of TC over Malaysia (especially over Sabah)

  15. Mean Streamline for July (SW Monsoon) 850hPa

  16. Mean Streamline for August (SW Monsoon) 850hPa

  17. Inter monsoon (Apr & Oct): • winds are generally light and variable • the equatorial trough lies over Malaysia Mean Streamline for April and October (Inter Monsoon) 850hPa

  18. THE EFFECT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARDS MALAYSIA WEATHER

  19. During SW monsoon in Malaysia (May-Sept) or Northern Hemisphere Summer : • Western North Pacific is favorable for TC formation • The normal passage of TC is westwards across the Philippines, recurring northeastwards as they approach the Asiatic land mass • Malaysia may experience tail effect of TC • During NE monsoon (Nov-Mar) : • TC formation in Western North Pacific is rare • Based on past records, Malaysia suffered direct strikes from TC mainly during this period • In associated to Borneo Vortex embedded in the equatorial trough • A vortex can develop to a TC

  20. Tropical Cyclone Common Path Malaysia

  21. Past Tropical Cyclone Events In Malaysia • Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996) • Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999) • Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001)

  22. Tropical Storm Greg (Dec 1996) • Formed in the South China Sea as TD on Dec 21 • Headed east-southeastward, strengthened into the final TS on the 24th • After reaching a peak of 45 knots winds it crossed the northern part of Borneo on the 25th. • Continued east-southeastward until dissipation on the 27th, south of the Philippines • Caused flooding and severe mudslides in Sabah • Leaved more than 4,000 people homeless • Destruction of coral reefs • Fatalities : 238 people • Damage : $52 million USD

  23. Tropical Storm Hilda (Jan 1999) • Stretched out from the northwest Borneo coast early on Jan 4 • Developed into a TD and moved slowly to the north away from the Borneo coast, becoming TS Hilda early on Jan 6 • Caused flooding and landslides in Sabah • Fatalities : 6 people • Damage : $1.3 million USD

  24. Typhoon Vamei (Dec 2001) • Developed on Dec 26 at 1.4°N in the South China Sea • Strengthened quickly and made landfall along extreme southeastern Malaysia • Rapidly dissipated over Sumatra on Dec 28, and the remnants eventually re-organized in the North Indian Ocean • Brought flooding and landslides to • eastern Malaysia • Fatalities : 5 people • Damage : $4.2 million USD

  25. TROPICAL CYCLONE MONITORING AND FORECASTING IN MALAYSIA

  26. TC monitoring and forecasting tools: • JMA Typhoon Track • JTWC Typhoon Center • NWP products (MMD-WRF, GFS and NOGAPS) • Satellite image : • MTSAT • FY-2E • Radar echo

  27. Upper Air and Synop Surface Observation Principal Station Network Rangkaian Stesen Radar, Satelit, Udara Atas Dan Pencemaran Udara Upper Air Station (8) Principal Synop Surface Observation Station (22)

  28. Satellite Satation (1) Satellite and Radar Network Rangkaian Stesen Radar, Satelit, Udara Atas Dan Pencemaran Udara Radar Station (12)

  29. JTWC Typhoon Center

  30. JMA Typhoon Track FY-2E

  31. EC Wind Chart Wind chart (850 hPa) – useful to detect areas of strong winds over Malaysia waters JMA Wind Chart

  32. MET Malaysia 6-Panel Wind Chart

  33. MTSAT

  34. MMD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

  35. WEATHER MONITORING, FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM Marine Observation Aircraft Observation Radar Observation Surface Observation Weather Camera Upper Air Observation Satellite Observation Data Collection and Analysis Weather Forecast Centre Warning Dissemination Public

  36. Dissemination of Sea Condition, Weather Forecast and Warning MMD WEBSITE MASS MEDIA – TV , RADIO & NEWSPAPER WEB SITE : www.met.gov.my SMS MMD SMS INFORMATION SYSTEM

  37. CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING

  38. CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WARNING

  39. CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WARNING

  40. CRITERIA FOR THE ISSUANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WARNING

  41. Tropical Cyclone Advisory

  42. Strong Wind And Rough Seas Warning

  43. Thank You

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