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Still Not Dead: 7 Myths About The Current State of the TV Industry Debunked

Piksel's Global Lead Analyst Alan Wolk dispels seven common myths about today's TV industry, taking on everything from cord cutting to Twitter in this insightful and valuable presentation.

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Still Not Dead: 7 Myths About The Current State of the TV Industry Debunked

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  1. STILL NOT DEAD THE REMARKABLE RESILIENCY OF THE US TELEVISION INDUSTRY

  2. The Death of Television makes for great headlines, but it’s not happening* !

  3. The Death of Television makes for great headlines, but it’s not happening* ! *not anytime soon

  4. The Death of Television makes for great headlines, but it’s not happening* ! *not anytime soon (*even if the naysayers prove correct, the demise they’re predicting is still 10-15 years away.)

  5. Here are just of few of the misconceptions floating around

  6. MYTH #1 Cord-cutting is a mass movement fueled mostly by tech savvy millennials who get their TV from the internet BROOKLYN

  7. MYTH #1 Cord-cutting is a mass movement fueled mostly by tech savvy millennials who get their TV from the internet WRONG! BROOKLYN

  8. Research shows that when it actually does happen, cord-cutting is largely an economic decision, made by people who can no longer afford pay TV and give it up for rabbit ears, not Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. DETROIT

  9. Research shows that when it actually does happen, cord-cutting is largely an economic decision, made by people who can no longer afford pay TV and give it up for rabbit ears, not Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. DETROIT According to noted industry analyst Craig Moffett, cord- cutting, which he defines as “also including that "gap" created by new household formation that DID NOT translate into Pay TV growth” is happening at a rate of 0.5% a year and actually decelerated in Q3 2013.* *UPDATED 12.13.13 to include clarification from Moffett © PIKSEL 2013. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED | CONFIDENTIAL PAGE

  10. More About Cord Cutting

  11. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS

  12. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate.

  13. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  14. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  15. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  16. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% • In the early 2000s, it was around 80% Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  17. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% • In the early 2000s, it was around 80% • Satellite services added another 6% in the mid-2000s, mostly those who could not afford or get access to traditional cable Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  18. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% • In the early 2000s, it was around 80% • Satellite services added another 6% in the mid-2000s, mostly those who could not afford or get access to traditional cable • A final 1% came on board in the past few years, during the digital era Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  19. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% • In the early 2000s, it was around 80% • Satellite services added another 6% in the mid-2000s, mostly those who could not afford or get access to traditional cable • A final 1% came on board in the past few years, during the digital era • A recent— and oft-cited— Nielsen study revealed there were 5 million “zero TV households” up from 2 million in 2007. Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  20. More About Cord Cutting BOOMERANG SUBSCRIBERS PAY TV PENETRATION • Pay TV penetration in the US is around 87% • In the early 2000s, it was around 80% • Satellite services added another 6% in the mid-2000s, mostly those who could not afford or get access to traditional cable • A final 1% came on board in the past few years, during the digital era • A recent— and oft-cited— Nielsen study revealed there were 5 million “zero TV households” up from 2 million in 2007. • Given that pay TV subscriptions actually grew during that period, many are likely part of the 15 million households (13%) who never had pay TV to begin with. Viewers who cut the cord for economic reasons frequently return to pay TV when their circumstances improve, and then cut the cord again when they deteriorate. Unlike professionals who make moral/philosophical decisions to abandon pay TV (and write about it on media and tech blogs) this demographic is not lost to the industry forever.

  21. Numerous surveys show that Americans are largely dissatisfied with their pay TV service, so while cord cutting may not be an issue today, it could soon become one: high prices and dissatisfied customers are a deadly combination.

  22. Numerous surveys show that Americans are largely dissatisfied with their pay TV service, so while cord cutting may not be an issue today, it could soon become one: high prices and dissatisfied customers are a deadly combination. What’s stopping it?

  23. Numerous surveys show that Americans are largely dissatisfied with their pay TV service, so while cord cutting may not be an issue today, it could soon become one: high prices and dissatisfied customers are a deadly combination. What’s stopping it? A lack of attractivealternatives:

  24. Numerous surveys show that Americans are largely dissatisfied with their pay TV service, so while cord cutting may not be an issue today, it could soon become one: high prices and dissatisfied customers are a deadly combination. What’s stopping it? A lack of attractivealternatives: Cobbled together solutions requiring a number of different devices are not a viable mass market option.

  25. MYTH #2 Kids pretty much ignore mainstream TV and just watch Netflix on their iPads

  26. MYTH #2 Kids pretty much ignore mainstream TV and just watch Netflix on their iPads WRONG!

  27. A recent Kaiser study shows that 71% of 8-18 year olds have a TV in their bedroom.

  28. A recent Kaiser study shows that 71% of 8-18 year olds have a TV in their bedroom. A Deloitte survey of “trailing millennials (ages 14 -23) shows that while 20% say they watch TV on their tablets, 62% are still watching live on a TV set

  29. A recent Kaiser study shows that 71% of 8-18 year olds have a TV in their bedroom. A Deloitte survey of “trailing millennials (ages 14 -23) shows that while 20% say they watch TV on their tablets, 62% are still watching live on a TV set A 2013 Pew survey shows that only 35% of Americans actually own tablets.

  30. Viewing habits are changing

  31. Viewing habits are changing They’re just not there yet.

  32. Viewing habits are changing They’re just not there yet. Tablet and streaming viewing index much higher with upper income families, but even there they are far from the dominant behavior.

  33. Viewing habits are changing They’re just not there yet. Tablet and streaming viewing index much higher with upper income families, but even there they are far from the dominant behavior. It’s hard to predict what will become the dominant behavior, but live TV viewed on an actual TV set is still the primary use case for all age and income groups.

  34. Viewing habits are changing They’re just not there yet. Tablet and streaming viewing index much higher with upper income families, but even there they are far from the dominant behavior. It’s hard to predict what will become the dominant behavior, but live TV viewed on an actual TV set is still the primary use case for all age and income groups. Remember too, that the viewing habits of today’s 12 year olds won’t start to affect the industry for at least 10 more years.

  35. Viewing habits are changing They’re just not there yet. Tablet and streaming viewing index much higher with upper income families, but even there they are far from the dominant behavior. It’s hard to predict what will become the dominant behavior, but live TV viewed on an actual TV set is still the primary use case for all age and income groups. Remember too, that the viewing habits of today’s 12 year olds won’t start to affect the industry for at least 10 more years.

  36. MYTH #3 Your pay TV provider is the one forcing you to pay for 800 channels you don’t want to watch

  37. MYTH #3 Your pay TV provider is the one forcing you to pay for 800 channels you don’t want to watch WRONG!

  38. The networks are the ones forcing pay TV operators to take bundles— groupings of channels they own. So if you have ABC, you also have Disney and Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2

  39. The networks are the ones forcing pay TV operators to take bundles— groupings of channels they own. So if you have ABC, you also have Disney and Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2 The operators would love to break up the bundles and offer smaller, cheaper packages but the networks won’t do it.

  40. The networks are the ones forcing pay TV operators to take bundles— groupings of channels they own. So if you have ABC, you also have Disney and Disney XD and ESPN and ESPN2 The operators would love to break up the bundles and offer smaller, cheaper packages but the networks won’t do it. In their defense, the networks claim that bundling keeps fees down by spreading out costs, something many analysts believe is a valid point.

  41. Who Owns What: Network Bundles

  42. Who Owns What: Network Bundles ABC/DISNEY ! ABC Television ABC News Fusion A+E Networks (JV) • A&E • History • Bio. • H2 • Military History • Crime & Investigation • Lifetime • Lifetime Movie Network • Lifetime Real Women Disney Channel Disney Cinemagic Disney Junior Disney XD ESPN ESPN2 ESPN on ABC ESPN Classic ESPNews ESPN Deportes

  43. Who Owns What: Network Bundles ABC/DISNEY ! ABC Television ABC News Fusion A+E Networks (JV) • A&E • History • Bio. • H2 • Military History • Crime & Investigation • Lifetime • Lifetime Movie Network • Lifetime Real Women Disney Channel Disney Cinemagic Disney Junior Disney XD ESPN ESPN2 ESPN on ABC ESPN Classic ESPNews ESPN Deportes CBS ! CBS Television CBS News CBS Sports The CW Showtime Showtime 2, Showtime Showcase, Showtime Extreme Showtime Beyond Showtime Next Showtime Women Showtime Family Zone The Movie Channel The Movie Channel Xtra Smithsonian TV Guide Network !!!!!!

  44. Who Owns What: Network Bundles ABC/DISNEY ! ABC Television ABC News Fusion A+E Networks (JV) • A&E • History • Bio. • H2 • Military History • Crime & Investigation • Lifetime • Lifetime Movie Network • Lifetime Real Women Disney Channel Disney Cinemagic Disney Junior Disney XD ESPN ESPN2 ESPN on ABC ESPN Classic ESPNews ESPN Deportes CBS ! CBS Television CBS News CBS Sports The CW Showtime Showtime 2, Showtime Showcase, Showtime Extreme Showtime Beyond Showtime Next Showtime Women Showtime Family Zone The Movie Channel The Movie Channel Xtra Smithsonian TV Guide Network !!!!!! NBC UNIVERSAL ! Bravo Chiller Cloo CNBC E! Esquire Channel G4 MSNBC Mun2 NBC NBC Sports Oxygen PBS Kids Sprout Syfy Telemundo The Golf Channel The Weather Channel (JV) TV One (JV) Universal HD USA Network !

  45. Who Owns What: Network Bundles ABC/DISNEY ! ABC Television ABC News Fusion A+E Networks (JV) • A&E • History • Bio. • H2 • Military History • Crime & Investigation • Lifetime • Lifetime Movie Network • Lifetime Real Women Disney Channel Disney Cinemagic Disney Junior Disney XD ESPN ESPN2 ESPN on ABC ESPN Classic ESPNews ESPN Deportes CBS ! CBS Television CBS News CBS Sports The CW Showtime Showtime 2, Showtime Showcase, Showtime Extreme Showtime Beyond Showtime Next Showtime Women Showtime Family Zone The Movie Channel The Movie Channel Xtra Smithsonian TV Guide Network !!!!!! NBC UNIVERSAL ! Bravo Chiller Cloo CNBC E! Esquire Channel G4 MSNBC Mun2 NBC NBC Sports Oxygen PBS Kids Sprout Syfy Telemundo The Golf Channel The Weather Channel (JV) TV One (JV) Universal HD USA Network ! FOX ! Big Ten Network (JV) Fox Business Network Fox College Sports Fox Broadcasting Fox News Channel Fox Soccer Plus Fox Sports 1 Fox Sports 2 Fox Sports Networks FX FXX FX Movie Channel National Geographic Channel (JV) Nat Geo Mundo (JV) Nat Geo Wild (JV) !!!!!!

  46. Who Owns What: Network Bundles ABC/DISNEY ! ABC Television ABC News Fusion A+E Networks (JV) • A&E • History • Bio. • H2 • Military History • Crime & Investigation • Lifetime • Lifetime Movie Network • Lifetime Real Women Disney Channel Disney Cinemagic Disney Junior Disney XD ESPN ESPN2 ESPN on ABC ESPN Classic ESPNews ESPN Deportes CBS ! CBS Television CBS News CBS Sports The CW Showtime Showtime 2, Showtime Showcase, Showtime Extreme Showtime Beyond Showtime Next Showtime Women Showtime Family Zone The Movie Channel The Movie Channel Xtra Smithsonian TV Guide Network !!!!!! NBC UNIVERSAL ! Bravo Chiller Cloo CNBC E! Esquire Channel G4 MSNBC Mun2 NBC NBC Sports Oxygen PBS Kids Sprout Syfy Telemundo The Golf Channel The Weather Channel (JV) TV One (JV) Universal HD USA Network ! VIACOM ! BET CMT CMT Pure Country Comedy Central Logo MTV MTV2 MTV Hits MTV Jams mtvU Nick at Nite Nick Jr. Nickelodeon Nicktoons Palladia Spike TeenNick Tr3s TV Land VH1 VH1 Classic VH1 Soul FOX ! Big Ten Network (JV) Fox Business Network Fox College Sports Fox Broadcasting Fox News Channel Fox Soccer Plus Fox Sports 1 Fox Sports 2 Fox Sports Networks FX FXX FX Movie Channel National Geographic Channel (JV) Nat Geo Mundo (JV) Nat Geo Wild (JV) !!!!!!

  47. MYTH #4 Cutting the cord and switching to web TV lets you stick it to the cable companies for overcharging you!

  48. MYTH #4 Cutting the cord and switching to web TV lets you stick it to the cable companies for overcharging you! WRONG!

  49. Where do you think that internet connection comes from?

  50. Where do you think that internet connection comes from? The MVPDs own the broadband connections in the US, and with just two or three providers to choose from, competition isn’tfierce

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