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Klaus M. Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD Edward K. Berry

A synoptic-dynamic model with application to subseasonal monitoring and forecasting. mountains. eddies. Klaus M. Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD Edward K. Berry NOAA/NWS. convection. base state. Snellman Forecast Funnel. Global Mean. THERE

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Klaus M. Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD Edward K. Berry

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  1. A synoptic-dynamic model with application to subseasonal monitoring and forecasting mountains eddies Klaus M. Weickmann NOAA/ESRL/PSD Edward K. Berry NOAA/NWS convection base state

  2. Snellman Forecast Funnel Global Mean

  3. THERE IS NO COOK BOOK!!!

  4. Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model (GSDM) Seek to extract repeatable behavior by the the global circulation Includes four subseasonal time scales: MJO - 30-60 day quasi-oscillation, baroclinic wave packets - 1-2 day decay time teleconnections - ~6-10 day decay time 20-30 day quasi-oscillation Keyed to the time tendency of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) some averaging necessary – vertical, zonal, etc. mountain, friction torques, momentum flux conv. GSDM combined with rigorous daily monitoring and synoptic analysis animations of daily, 7-day, 30-day, etc averages time-latitude/longitude/height plots zonal and global AAM budget

  5. Indices used for lag regressions Madden-Julian Oscillation: EOF1 of 20-100 day filtered OLR Teleconnections or “M-F index cycle”: global friction torque with MJO removed Baroclinic waves and wave packets: Global AAM time tendency filtered at < 30 days

  6. H Stage 1 L L H H H H H H L L L L H H Stage 2 L H L H L L H H H L H L L L H L H H H L L L L H L H L H H L H L Stage 3 H L H H L L L L L H H H H L L Stage 4 L H H L H H L L H L L L L H L H H H L H H H L L H H L H L L

  7. Application of GSDM Evaluating real time signals in tropical convection, atmospheric angular momentum, baroclinic wave packets, SST anomalies, persistent regimes,etc. • Case 1: May 4-10, 2003 • Several Severe Local Storms Outbreaks • Strong MJO • GSDM Stage 1 • Case 2: June 2006 • Excessive East Coast Rainfall Event • Hot/Dry Regime Intensifies for Western and Central USA

  8. Case 2 June 2006 • Generally persistent tropical convection across western Pacific as part of a ENSO/global warming signal • Poleward propagation of zonal mean anomalous easterly flow off the equator leads to strong North Atlantic trades • ~ 50-60 day “oscillatory” tropical convective variations across the western Pacific • ~30 day tropical convective variability with coherent eastward propagation • Baroclinic wave packets/Rossby wave energy dispersion processes • GSDM Stage 2

  9. #2 MJO #3 #4 #5 A #6 #7

  10. Stage 3 Stage 1 wet dry wet Stage 2 Stage 2 Stage 4

  11. E E W E E W

  12. L H H H L H H L H L H H H 6/16 H L H H H L H H H H L L H H 6/17 H H H L H L H H L H H H L L H H H 6/18

  13. L H H L H L H H L L H H H H 6/19 L H L L H L H L H H L H H 6/20 L H H L L H H H H H 6/21

  14. H L L H L H H H 6/22 H L L H H H H H H 6/23 L L H H L H L H H 6/24

  15. H H H L L H H L H 6/25 H L H H L H H 6/26 H L L H H H L H 6/27

  16. L L H L H L H 6/28 L H H L L H L L 6/29 H L H H L L 6/30

  17. Questions???

  18. Case 1 November – December 2005 • Strong North Pacific December Jet despite La-Nina and Indonesian tropical convective forcing • Initiated during early November from Rossby Wave linked to west Pacific tropical forcing • Recurrent Kamchatka blocks eventually overspread polar latitudes • Postulated feedbacks include positive mountain torques, East Asia cold outbreaks and strong flux convergence of AAM ~30N • GSDM Stage 3 circulation with Stage 1 convection • Break down during early January as Kelvin wave/MJO develops across Indian Ocean

  19. Madden-Julian Oscillation Activity

  20. EH Consolidation A #1 ~30 days WH #2 B ~40 days WH #3 C ~20-30 days #4 D ~20 days WH E #5

  21. Relative Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) Global AAM Stage 1 circ Stage 1-2 conv Stage 3 circ Stage 1-2 conv Stage 2 circ Stage 2 conv Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

  22. L H H L H L L L L H L H L L H H H H L H 12/03/05 to 01/02/06 12/03/05 to 01/01/06 H L L H L L H L H L L H L H L H L 03/03/06 to 04/02/06 03/03/06 to 04/01/06

  23. + -- + 12/03/05 to 01/02/06 12/03/05 to 01/02/06 -- -- + 03/03/06 to 04/02/06 03/03/06 to 04/02/06

  24. H L L 9 Nov H H H H L H L H L H L L H L 15 Nov H H H H H L L L L 28 Nov H L H H H L H L L L 4 Dec H H

  25. L H L H 12 Dec L L H L H H H H H H H H H H L H L L L 21 Dec L H H L H L H H H H L L H L H H H L L 4 Jan L H L H H L L L L 12 Feb H H

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