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E(M)U Expansion: Is there life after EU referenda?

E(M)U Expansion: Is there life after EU referenda?. Piet Lammens, KBC Bank. Current context EU intergration. New member states (EU-10) Existing member states (EU-15) Economic dip Political elections Dissatisfaction with present EU Frictions with new members. Referenda as catalyst.

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E(M)U Expansion: Is there life after EU referenda?

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  1. E(M)U Expansion: Is there life after EU referenda? Piet Lammens, KBC Bank

  2. Current context EU intergration • New member states (EU-10) • Existing member states (EU-15) • Economic dip • Political elections • Dissatisfaction with present EU • Frictions with new members

  3. Referenda as catalyst • Consequences of “no” vote • Nice treaty stays • Political • Short-term turmoil • Reducing speed reform • Slowing down further expansion • No EU disintegration though

  4. “No” doesn’t bar EMU accession • Art. 4 accession treaty (“ acquis communautaire”) • No opt-out clausule • So no political discussion • But “technical” discussion on criteria • With at worst: stricter interpretation

  5. Does change in GSP bring EMU closer? • Difference Maastricht- GSP criteria • GSP criteria: 3%- 60% • Exception: extra pension costs due to reform • From 2005 onwards • Although degressive: 100%, 80%, …..20% • Applicable on deliberation EMU accession?

  6. EMU: key in hands of the new member states (1) • Important: Is there deep politicam commitment? • Make distinction: 7 - 3 countries • 7 Small countries: deep political commitment and fullfillment criteria within reach • No need for flexible interpretation of criteria • 2007: Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia • 2008: Latvia, Cyprus, Malta • 2009: Slovakia

  7. EMU: key in hands of new members (2) • But is the political commitment deep enough in: • Tchech republic: wil tot toetreding? • Hongary, Poland: will to accession is wel routed, but will to fullfill all criteria is sub par • 2010 is still realistic, but action now needed

  8. Bulgaria and Romania • EU accession 1 january 2007, unless… • “no” to referenda of no consequence • Bulgaria wants EMU accession in 2009! • Positive surprise is possible

  9. Turkey, Croatia, etc…. • No short-term impact • potential hindrance longer term • EU accession = political decision

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