Is the Western Climate Establishment

1. Is the Western Climate Establishment Corrupt ? Dr David Evans

2. Official Thermometer, Urbana Ohio USA See any problems?

3. Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org and Steve Tiemeier

4. Official Thermometer, Bainbridge Georgia USA What about here?

5. Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org and Joel McDade

6. Why do they Measure Temperature Like This? • GW is tenths of a degree per century, so any slight artificial nudge is important • Official siting requirements: • 30 meters from an artificial source of heat • Level open clearing with typical ground cover • 89% of 860 surveyed NOAA thermometers (of 1,221) are too close to an artificial source of heat

7. Marysville California Now dropped, but data back to 1897 still in official record Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts and www.surfacestations.org

8. Marysville California The view from near the air conditioner exhausts Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts and www.surfacestations.org

9. Why do they Measure Temperature Like This? • What motive could there be, other than to inflate official temperatures? • Why have we only found out about it because volunteers went out and photographed the official thermometers? • Money not a problem: NOAA budget $4b+

10. Wastewater is Warm! Wastewater treatment tanks in Ontario Oregon Hey, wouldn’t wastewater treatment plants be good places to measure global warming? Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts and www.surfacestations.org

11. Sedro Woolley, Washington Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org and Don and Liz Healy

12. Titusville, Florida Level open clearing, with ground cover typical of the region ??? Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts, www.surfacestations.org and Don Kostuch

13. Why Won’t the Media Cover it? • Why hasn’t the media published any of these photographs? • Is the media failing to do its job, covering up for the climate establishment?

14. Baltimore Customs House Couldn’t they at least move the thermometer away from the a/c? Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts and www.surfacestations.org

15. Urban Heat Island • Microclimate around a thermometer can change due to urban encroachment —asphalt, concrete, buildings, air conditioners, cars, electrical appliances, changes in vegetation, etc. • City of 1 million, compared to surrounds: • 1 to 3°C warmer on average • Up to 12°C warmer in evenings

16. Observatory Hill, Sydney Started recording temperatures 1858, when Sydney population was 60,000. Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts

17. Observatory Hill, Sydney Today Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts

18. Global Network of Official Thermometers • 54% of thermometers are at airports • Tarmac radiates heat (raises minimum and daily temperature readings) • Thermometers cop occasional blasts of jet exhaust • Same network used by GISS, HadCrut, NCDC

19. Rome Airport

20. Svalbard Airport, Norway The tarmac is the warmest surface around (kept clear in winter). Thermometer also nudged by jet exhaust and steam de-icers. Photo courtesy of Anthony Watts

21. What Are They Measuring? • 80%+ of official global thermometers are at airports or in urban areas. • Thermometers are placed to measure the growth and use of cities, air conditioners, planes, water treatment plants, cars, buses, trucks, asphalt, concrete, and tarmac. • They measure temperatures at the globe’s warmest localities, not global temperatures. • They are measuring urban warming and airport warming, not global warming!

22. How have the climate establishment been able to get away with this? • Where are the regulators and auditors? • Drug companies or financial institutions would be busted if they were this deceptive!

23. More Thermometer Tricks, 1 • “Adjustments” to raw temperature data increase apparent warming substantially. In the USA, official adjustments account for nearly the entire temperature rise from the 1930s to 2000. • They revise the official adjusted temperatures after a decade or so to increase recent warming. Adjusted Temperature Raw Temperature

24. More Thermometer Tricks, 2 • Nearly 6,000 official global thermometers in 1980s. Now just 1,079. The removals increased the proportion of thermometers: • At airports (warmer than surrounds) • Nearer the equator (it’s hotter at the equator) • At lower altitudes (it’s colder in the mountains) • They hide the raw temperatures and how they adjusted them. They evaded FOIs. They claim to have lost the original data.

25. Why? • Why would the climate establishment play these tricks, if their case and data were strong? • Don’t these tricks strongly imply that their case is weak or wrong? • And that they know it?

26. What Difference Does It Make? • Warmest Year = 2006 • Warming trend continuing Oh no! We’re all going to fry!

27. Satellites • Alternate method of measuring global temperature • 24/7 • All land and ocean, except near poles • Initial calibration problems long since fixed • Most reliable, extensive, and unbiased method

28. Warmest Year = 1998 • Warming trend to about 2001, then level • Large El Nino spike in 1998 • Large El Nino spike in 2010, peaked in March Not so bad. Hmmm, how can warming have leveled off when our emissions are increasing!?!

29. An Admission • Dr Phil Jones, head of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia in the UK. • February 2010, in a BBC interview • “from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming” • Cooling since 2002, but too short to be statistically significant

30. Ocean Temperatures • Argo started mid-2003. • 3,000+ floats, cover all the oceans • Ocean data before Argo is nearly worthless.

31. Argo Results • Argo results are not made public. • Have to ask Josh Willis and get lucky. • Last data given out to anyone outside the establishment, AFAIK, was to early 2008:

32. The Argo Scandal • Why no website showing the latest global ocean temperature as measured by Argo? • The western public have paid for this crucial data. • In science, you should share your data. • If Argo showed warming oceans, wouldn’t it would be publicized endlessly? • Good news! We can only conclude that Argo is not showing ocean warming.

33. Temperature Record for Last 2,000 Years Use best data in each period: • 1979 – Now: Satellites • 1850 – 1979: Land thermometers • 16 AD – 1850: Loehle’s reconstruction, 18 proxies over wide geographical range: sediments, boreholes, pollen, oxygen-18, stalagmites, magnesium to calcium ratios, algae, and cave formation. No tree rings. First reconstruction in which every proxy calibrated to temperature in peer-reviewed article.

34. Current global warming trend started before 1700, some 310 years ago.

35. If the pattern persists, we’re going to see a couple of decades of cooling soon.

36. Human Emissions of CO2 • US Department of Energy has figures on worldwide emissions back to 1751 from: • Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) • Cement production • Gas flaring • Deforestation omitted, but is relatively small • Offset by reforestation, afforestation, new crops • Accelerated by fossil fuels, post 1850 • European forests replaced by coal by 1751

37. Current global warming trend started before 1700. • Human emissions were negligible before 1850. • Human emissions did not cause or start current global warming trend.

38. Human emissions don’t appear to be affecting the rate of warming either.

39. Human CO2 Emissions Are The Alleged Cause, But… • Have you ever seen a graph before that compares human CO2 emissions and temperature? • Alleged cause and effect never compared!?! • Comparison destroys the idea that human CO2 is causing global warming. • <1% of human emissions before 1850 • 85% after 1945 • 25% after 1998—yet no warming!

40. Establishment Revises History • Comparison of human CO2 and temperature makes theory of man-made global warming theory look foolish and absurd • Establishment needed to make start of global warming coincide with ramp up in human emissions, say 1910. • One small bureaucratic problem…

41. IPCC First Assessment Report, 1990 IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1996 Both show the current global warming trend starting before 1700.

42. Mann’s Hockey Stick, 1998 The most influential climate graph ever. Matches the start date of the current global warming trend to human CO2 emissions.

43. Hockey Stick Uncovered As a Fraud by 2006 • Widely discredited in scientific circles outside the western climate establishment. • Statistical processing emphasizes hockey-stick shaped proxies, almost ignores others. • Although Mann used a variety of temperature proxies as inputs, only the tree rings from bristlecone pines really counted. • Bristlecone pines are notorious for a growth spurt in the twentieth century for reasons not directly connected to temperature

44. Wegman Cans Mann US Congress appointed three independent leading statisticians, headed by Professor Edward Wegman, to report in 2006. • “In general, we found [Mann’s methods] to be somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms [by their main critics] to be valid and compelling” • “Moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that this community can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.”

45. The Chinese Other Climate Establishments: • Torpedoed Copenhagen negotiations 2009 • Say more research is needed to establish whether warming is man-made (XieZhenhua, Jan 2010). • August 2010: Book appeared in state-sanctioned bookstores, suggesting the Chinese government completely rejects the theory—Low Carbon Plot, by Gou Hongyang

46. The Chinese: Low Carbon Plot “ Will the increase in Carbon Dioxide definitely lead to the planet warming? Although there have been many many reports published by research institutes that verify this, but from the viewpoint of the history of man, and scientific method, the theories have not yet achieved scientific proof.”

47. The Chinese: Low Carbon Plot Argues that the theory of man-made global warming is “a conspiracy between Western governments and business to protect their own way of life, at the expense of the entire developing world—in other words, 80% of the world’s population.” (From book review, “The Dragon’s Dissent”)

48. The Russians • Always opposed the theory of man-made global warming: “Reject the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming.” • Climate is heavily influenced by solar cycles.

49. The Indians • National Action Plan on Climate Change in 2008: “No firm link between the documented [climate] changes described below and warming due to anthropogenic climate change has yet been established.” • February 2010: Indian government sets up its own body to monitor the effects of global warming because it “cannot rely” on the IPCC.

50. Other Climate Establishments Disagree • Largest emitters: China, USA, Russia, India • Climate establishments are independent. • 3 of 4 don’t agree with the CO2 theory Our media often remind us that almost “all climate scientists” agree that humans are causing global warming. No, only most western climate scientists.