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Landslide Risks in Sweden: Mapping and Mitigation Strategies

This study explores the dynamic landscape of landslide hazards in Sweden, with a focus on the Göta River valley. It highlights the importance of understanding stability conditions in order to address climate change impacts and improve stability mapping. Field investigations and statistical analysis were conducted to evaluate the current and future risks, emphasizing the need for proactive measures. The estimated cost for mitigating the risks along the Gota River and the Northern River is provided, along with an example of using a GIS platform for analysis.

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Landslide Risks in Sweden: Mapping and Mitigation Strategies

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  1. Landslide risks in Sweden Bo Lind, Swedish Geotechnical Institute

  2. Glaciated landscape with soft sediments (silt-clay) Valleys and Low-lands

  3. Vagnhärad 1997 Göta 1957 Tuve 1977 Post-glacial rebound – Erosion and landslides Småröd 2006

  4. Landslide/Mudflow

  5. Landslides and mudflows in Sweden

  6. Dynamic landscape of landslide scars

  7. Run-off area The Göta river valley • Large run-off area • Source of water supply for 8% of the population • Important infrastructure and settlements • Sensitive to landslides

  8. Catastrophic consequences of landslides Foto: Thomas Samuelsson

  9. Landslide retrogression in areas with highly sensitive clay

  10. Relative change in precipitation for a period of 30-years i the Vänerns runoff area (moving average)

  11. Mappingoflandslide risks - The Government'scommission “In order to address forthcoming climate changes and handle increased flow in the Göta River, greater understanding is required of the stability conditions along the entire Göta River. The funding is to be used for the improvement and production of landslide analyses and stability mapping along the Göta River.”

  12. Landslides in a changing climate • Driving forces affected by: • Increased groundwater pressure – climate related • Flow and river erosion – climate related • Loading by houses and infrastructure – development

  13. Field and laboratoryinvestigations

  14. Methodology • Extension of quick clays • Geometry of the river • Groundwater modelling • Erosion • Consequences Life Buildings Industry Energy supply Water supply Roads and railroads Shipping Contaminated sediments Bild: Sjöfartsverket

  15. Stability calculation

  16. consequence probability Statistical analysis Stability factor Amount of data Uncertainty Valuation/Calculation Life Buildings Industry Energy supply Water supply Roads and railroads Shipping Contaminated sediments Level of risk

  17. Conclusions Current conditions: - Many areas with high risk (red) - High risk also in built-up areas • - Large areas with poor stability closest to the river and conditions for large landslides Future conditions: • Climate change means that the risks increase • The area with the highest risk level (red) increases 10% • The probability of landslides further increases in high-risk areas - unless action is taken

  18. Suggestions • Necessary to take actions to reduce the current landslide risks which also provide opportunities for increased flows in the future • The estimated cost for the entire Gota River and the Northern River:4-5 billion SEK at today's maximum flows5-6 billion SEK for increased maximum flows

  19. Example of what can be done

  20. GIS platform

  21. Thank you

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